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 Learning Graphical Models


Explainable Reinforcement Learning for Broad-XAI: A Conceptual Framework and Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Broad Explainable Artificial Intelligence moves away from interpreting individual decisions based on a single datum and aims to provide integrated explanations from multiple machine learning algorithms into a coherent explanation of an agent's behaviour that is aligned to the communication needs of the explainee. Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods, we propose, provide a potential backbone for the cognitive model required for the development of Broad-XAI. RL represents a suite of approaches that have had increasing success in solving a range of sequential decision-making problems. However, these algorithms all operate as black-box problem solvers, where they obfuscate their decision-making policy through a complex array of values and functions. EXplainable RL (XRL) is relatively recent field of research that aims to develop techniques to extract concepts from the agent's: perception of the environment; intrinsic/extrinsic motivations/beliefs; Q-values, goals and objectives. This paper aims to introduce a conceptual framework, called the Causal XRL Framework (CXF), that unifies the current XRL research and uses RL as a backbone to the development of Broad-XAI. Additionally, we recognise that RL methods have the ability to incorporate a range of technologies to allow agents to adapt to their environment. CXF is designed for the incorporation of many standard RL extensions and integrated with external ontologies and communication facilities so that the agent can answer questions that explain outcomes and justify its decisions.


NAÏVE Bayes Classifier

#artificialintelligence

Let us talk about Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probablistic model represent a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies. This model can be represented using DAG (Directed Acrylic Graph) where nodes can be observable quantities, latent variables (not observable, inferred only) and not known parameters or hypothesis. DAG can help to understand the model in a easy manner. Edges in DAG represents conditional dependencies between nodes.


Lexicon

#artificialintelligence

Another application of lexicons and machine learning is sentiment analysis. In this application, words are assigned values for sentiment through training data. Using classifiers like the Naive-Bayes classifier, which classifies objects based on their independent features, machine learning models can process lexemes and assign them sentiment scores based on their individual characteristics. This method differs from a traditional, lexicon based, method for categorizing and assigning sentiment values to a set of lexemes because the bulk of the processing, excluding the training, is done in an unsupervised manner.


Structure Learning for Directed Trees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Knowing the causal structure of a system is of fundamental interest in many areas of science and can aid the design of prediction algorithms that work well under manipulations to the system. The causal structure becomes identifiable from the observational distribution under certain restrictions. To learn the structure from data, score-based methods evaluate different graphs according to the quality of their fits. However, for large nonlinear models, these rely on heuristic optimization approaches with no general guarantees of recovering the true causal structure. In this paper, we consider structure learning of directed trees. We propose a fast and scalable method based on Chu-Liu-Edmonds' algorithm we call causal additive trees (CAT). For the case of Gaussian errors, we prove consistency in an asymptotic regime with a vanishing identifiability gap. We also introduce a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error rate control that is valid post-selection and in unidentified settings. Furthermore, we study the identifiability gap, which quantifies how much better the true causal model fits the observational distribution, and prove that it is lower bounded by local properties of the causal model. Simulation studies demonstrate the favorable performance of CAT compared to competing structure learning methods.


Development of a Conversation State Prediction System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the evolution of the concept of Speaker diarization using LSTM, it's relatively easier to understand the speaker identities for specific segments of input audio stream data than manually tagging the data. With such a concept, it's highly desirable to consider the possibility of using the identified speaker identities to aid in predicting the future Speaker States in a conversation. In this study, the Markov Chains are used to identify and update the Speaker States for the next conversations between the same set of speakers, to enable identification of their states in the most natural and long conversations. The model is based on several audio samples from natural conversations of three or greater than three speakers in two datasets, with overall total error percentages for recognized states being lesser than or equal to 12%. The findings imply that the proposed extension to the Speaker diarization is effective to predict the states for a conversation.


Geometry-informed irreversible perturbations for accelerated convergence of Langevin dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel geometry-informed irreversible perturbation that accelerates convergence of the Langevin algorithm for Bayesian computation. It is well documented that there exist perturbations to the Langevin dynamics that preserve its invariant measure while accelerating its convergence. Irreversible perturbations and reversible perturbations (such as Riemannian manifold Langevin dynamics (RMLD)) have separately been shown to improve the performance of Langevin samplers. We consider these two perturbations simultaneously by presenting a novel form of irreversible perturbation for RMLD that is informed by the underlying geometry. Through numerical examples, we show that this new irreversible perturbation can improve performance of the estimator over reversible perturbations that do not take the geometry into account. Moreover we demonstrate that irreversible perturbations generally can be implemented in conjunction with the stochastic gradient version of the Langevin algorithm. Lastly, while continuous-time irreversible perturbations cannot impair the performance of a Langevin estimator, the situation can sometimes be more complicated when discretization is considered. To this end, we describe a discrete-time example in which irreversibility increases both the bias and variance of the resulting estimator.


Agent-Based Markov Modeling for Improved COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

The year 2020 saw the covid-19 virus lead to one of the worst global pandemics in history. As a result, governments around the world have been faced with the challenge of protecting public health while keeping the economy running to the greatest extent possible. Epidemiological models provide insight into the spread of these types of diseases and predict the effects of possible intervention policies. However, to date, even the most data-driven intervention policies rely on heuristics. In this paper, we study how reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian inference can be used to optimize mitigation policies that minimize economic impact without overwhelming hospital capacity. Our main contributions are (1) a novel agent-based pandemic simulator which, unlike traditional models, is able to model fine-grained interactions among people at specific locations in a community; (2) an RLbased methodology for optimizing fine-grained mitigation policies within this simulator; and (3) a Hidden Markov Model for predicting infected individuals based on partial observations regarding test results, presence of symptoms, and past physical contacts. This article is part of the special track on AI and COVID-19.


Smoother Entropy for Active State Trajectory Estimation and Obfuscation in POMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of controlling a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) to either aid or hinder the estimation of its state trajectory by optimising the conditional entropy of the state trajectory given measurements and controls, a quantity we dub the smoother entropy. Our consideration of the smoother entropy contrasts with previous active state estimation and obfuscation approaches that instead resort to measures of marginal (or instantaneous) state uncertainty due to tractability concerns. By establishing novel expressions of the smoother entropy in terms of the usual POMDP belief state, we show that our active estimation and obfuscation problems can be reformulated as Markov decision processes (MDPs) that are fully observed in the belief state. Surprisingly, we identify belief-state MDP reformulations of both active estimation and obfuscation with concave cost and cost-to-go functions, which enables the use of standard POMDP techniques to construct tractable bounded-error (approximate) solutions. We show in simulations that optimisation of the smoother entropy leads to superior trajectory estimation and obfuscation compared to alternative approaches. Index Terms Partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP), entropy, estimation, directed information. The problem of controlling a stochastic dynamical system to either aid or hinder the estimation of its time-varying state arises across numerous applications in automatic control, signal processing, and robotics.


Trustworthy AI: A Computational Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the past few decades, artificial intelligence (AI) technology has experienced swift developments, changing everyone's daily life and profoundly altering the course of human society. The intention of developing AI is to benefit humans, by reducing human labor, bringing everyday convenience to human lives, and promoting social good. However, recent research and AI applications show that AI can cause unintentional harm to humans, such as making unreliable decisions in safety-critical scenarios or undermining fairness by inadvertently discriminating against one group. Thus, trustworthy AI has attracted immense attention recently, which requires careful consideration to avoid the adverse effects that AI may bring to humans, so that humans can fully trust and live in harmony with AI technologies. Recent years have witnessed a tremendous amount of research on trustworthy AI. In this survey, we present a comprehensive survey of trustworthy AI from a computational perspective, to help readers understand the latest technologies for achieving trustworthy AI. Trustworthy AI is a large and complex area, involving various dimensions. In this work, we focus on six of the most crucial dimensions in achieving trustworthy AI: (i) Safety & Robustness, (ii) Non-discrimination & Fairness, (iii) Explainability, (iv) Privacy, (v) Accountability & Auditability, and (vi) Environmental Well-Being. For each dimension, we review the recent related technologies according to a taxonomy and summarize their applications in real-world systems. We also discuss the accordant and conflicting interactions among different dimensions and discuss potential aspects for trustworthy AI to investigate in the future.


Lossy Compression for Lossless Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most data is automatically collected and only ever "seen" by algorithms. Yet, data compressors preserve perceptual fidelity rather than just the information needed by algorithms performing downstream tasks. In this paper, we characterize the bit-rate required to ensure high performance on all predictive tasks that are invariant under a set of transformations, such as data augmentations. Based on our theory, we design unsupervised objectives for training neural compressors. Using these objectives, we train a generic image compressor that achieves substantial rate savings (more than $1000\times$ on ImageNet) compared to JPEG on 8 datasets, without decreasing downstream classification performance.