Training Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) has been challenging for a long time due to the difficulty of computing precisely the log-likelihood gradient. Over the past decades, many works have proposed more or less successful training recipes but without studying the crucial quantity of the problem: the mixing time, i.e. the number of Monte Carlo iterations needed to sample new configurations from a model. In this work, we show that this mixing time plays a crucial role in the dynamics and stability of the trained model, and that RBMs operate in two well-defined regimes, namely equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium, depending on the interplay between this mixing time of the model and the number of steps, $k$, used to approximate the gradient. We further show empirically that this mixing time increases with the learning, which often implies a transition from one regime to another as soon as $k$ becomes smaller than this time. In particular, we show that using the popular $k$ (persistent) contrastive divergence approaches, with $k$ small, the dynamics of the learned model are extremely slow and often dominated by strong out-of-equilibrium effects. On the contrary, RBMs trained in equilibrium display faster dynamics, and a smooth convergence to dataset-like configurations during the sampling. Finally we discuss how to exploit in practice both regimes depending on the task one aims to fulfill: (i) short $k$ can be used to generate convincing samples in short learning times, (ii) large $k$ (or increasingly large) is needed to learn the correct equilibrium distribution of the RBM. Finally, the existence of these two operational regimes seems to be a general property of energy based models trained via likelihood maximization.

Abstract--Synthesizing human motion with a global structure, such as a choreography, is a challenging task. Existing methods tend to concentrate on local smooth pose transitions and neglect the global context or the theme of the motion. In this work, we present a music-driven motion synthesis framework that generates long-term sequences of human motions which are synchronized with the input beats, and jointly form a global structure that respects a specific dance genre. In addition, our framework enables generation of diverse motions that are controlled by the content of the music, and not only by the beat. Our music-driven dance synthesis framework is a hierarchical system that consists of three levels: pose, motif, and choreography. The pose level consists of an LSTM component that generates temporally coherent sequences of poses. The motif level guides sets of consecutive poses to form a movement that belongs to a specific distribution using a novel motion perceptual-loss. And the choreography level selects the order of the performed movements and drives the system to follow the global structure of a dance genre. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our music-driven framework to generate natural and consistent movements on various dance types, having control over the content of the synthesized motions, and respecting the overall structure of the dance. Computationally human body animation built movement transition synthesizing a dance is challenging not only because graphs that are synchronized to the beat [5], [6], [7], or motions must be continuous, smooth and expressive the emotion [8], while more recent works use either hidden locally, but also because a dance has a meaningful global Markov models [9], or recurrent neural networks [10], [11], temporal structure [2], [3]. These methods generate motions that follow the given learning using neural networks have shown promising results audio beat, while following a specific style, but show limited in controlling articulated characters and creating arbitrary variability and lack global consistency that is dictated realistic human motions, including dance.

A well-studied challenge that arises in the structure learning problem of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAG) is that using observational data, one can only learn the graph up to a "Markov equivalence class" (MEC). The remaining undirected edges have to be oriented using interventions, which can be very expensive to perform in applications. Thus, the problem of minimizing the number of interventions needed to fully orient the MEC has received a lot of recent attention, and is also the focus of this work. We prove two main results. The first is a new universal lower bound on the number of atomic interventions that any algorithm (whether active or passive) would need to perform in order to orient a given MEC. Our second result shows that this bound is, in fact, within a factor of two of the size of the smallest set of atomic interventions that can orient the MEC. Our lower bound is provably better than previously known lower bounds. The proof of our lower bound is based on the new notion of clique-block shared-parents (CBSP) orderings, which are topological orderings of DAGs without v-structures and satisfy certain special properties. Further, using simulations on synthetic graphs and by giving examples of special graph families, we show that our bound is often significantly better.

In many contexts it is useful to predict the number of individuals in some population who will initiate a particular activity during a given period. For example, the number of users who will install a software update, the number of customers who will use a new feature on a website or who will participate in an A/B test. In practical settings, there is heterogeneity amongst individuals with regard to the distribution of time until they will initiate. For these reasons it is inappropriate to assume that the number of new individuals observed on successive days will be identically distributed. Given observations on the number of unique users participating in an initial period, we present a simple but novel Bayesian method for predicting the number of additional individuals who will subsequently participate during a subsequent period. We illustrate the performance of the method in predicting sample size in online experimentation.

Inference in deep Bayesian neural networks is only fully understood in the infinite-width limit, where the posterior flexibility afforded by increased depth washes out and the posterior predictive collapses to a shallow Gaussian process. Here, we interpret finite deep linear Bayesian neural networks as data-dependent scale mixtures of Gaussian process predictors across output channels. We leverage this observation to study representation learning in these networks, allowing us to connect limiting results obtained in previous studies within a unified framework. In total, these results advance our analytical understanding of how depth affects inference in a simple class of Bayesian neural networks.

Although neural networks are powerful function approximators, the underlying modelling assumptions ultimately define the likelihood and thus the hypothesis class they are parameterizing. In classification, these assumptions are minimal as the commonly employed softmax is capable of representing any categorical distribution. In regression, however, restrictive assumptions on the type of continuous distribution to be realized are typically placed, like the dominant choice of training via mean-squared error and its underlying Gaussianity assumption. Recently, modelling advances allow to be agnostic to the type of continuous distribution to be modelled, granting regression the flexibility of classification models. While past studies stress the benefit of such flexible regression models in terms of performance, here we study the effect of the model choice on uncertainty estimation. We highlight that under model misspecification, aleatoric uncertainty is not properly captured, and that a Bayesian treatment of a misspecified model leads to unreliable epistemic uncertainty estimates. Overall, our study provides an overview on how modelling choices in regression may influence uncertainty estimation and thus any downstream decision making process.

Several problems in neuroimaging and beyond require inference on the parameters of multi-task sparse hierarchical regression models. Examples include M/EEG inverse problems, neural encoding models for task-based fMRI analyses, and climate science. In these domains, both the model parameters to be inferred and the measurement noise may exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure. Existing work either neglects the temporal structure or leads to computationally demanding inference schemes. Overcoming these limitations, we devise a novel flexible hierarchical Bayesian framework within which the spatio-temporal dynamics of model parameters and noise are modeled to have Kronecker product covariance structure. Inference in our framework is based on majorization-minimization optimization and has guaranteed convergence properties. Our highly efficient algorithms exploit the intrinsic Riemannian geometry of temporal autocovariance matrices. For stationary dynamics described by Toeplitz matrices, the theory of circulant embeddings is employed. We prove convex bounding properties and derive update rules of the resulting algorithms. On both synthetic and real neural data from M/EEG, we demonstrate that our methods lead to improved performance.

Including NLP and Transformers Students also bought Recommender Systems and Deep Learning in Python Machine Learning A-Z: Become Kaggle Master Unsupervised Deep Learning in Python Deep Learning: Recurrent Neural Networks in Python Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python Preview this Udemy Course GET COUPON CODE Description This course is a comprehensive guide to Deep Learning and Neural Networks. The theories are explained in depth and in a friendly manner. After that, we'll have the hands-on session, where we will be learning how to code Neural Networks in PyTorch, a very advanced and powerful deep learning framework! We will walk through an example and do the calculations step-by-step. We will also discuss the activation functions used in Neural Networks, with their advantages and disadvantages!

Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between input variables and a response. Such relationships can be better described through  flexible approaches such as neural networks, but this results in less interpretable models and potential overfitting. Alternatively, specific parametric nonlinear functions can be used, but the specification of such functions is in general complicated. In this paper, we introduce a  flexible approach for the construction and selection of highly  flexible nonlinear parametric regression models. Nonlinear features are generated hierarchically, similarly to deep learning, but have additional  flexibility on the possible types of features to be considered. This  flexibility, combined with variable selection, allows us to find a small set of important features and thereby more interpretable models. Within the space of possible functions, a Bayesian approach, introducing priors for functions based on their complexity, is considered. A genetically modified mode jumping Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is adopted to perform Bayesian inference and estimate posterior probabilities for model averaging. In various applications, we illustrate how our approach is used to obtain meaningful nonlinear models. Additionally, we compare its predictive performance with several machine learning algorithms.  

A natural notion of rationality/consistency for aggregating models is that, for all (possibly aggregated) models $A$ and $B$, if the output of model $A$ is $f(A)$ and if the output model $B$ is $f(B)$, then the output of the model obtained by aggregating $A$ and $B$ must be a weighted average of $f(A)$ and $f(B)$. Similarly, a natural notion of rationality for aggregating preferences of ensembles of experts is that, for all (possibly aggregated) experts $A$ and $B$, and all possible choices $x$ and $y$, if both $A$ and $B$ prefer $x$ over $y$, then the expert obtained by aggregating $A$ and $B$ must also prefer $x$ over $y$. Rational aggregation is an important element of uncertainty quantification, and it lies behind many seemingly different results in economic theory: spanning social choice, belief formation, and individual decision making. Three examples of rational aggregation rules are as follows. (1) Give each individual model (expert) a weight (a score) and use weighted averaging to aggregate individual or finite ensembles of models (experts). (2) Order/rank individual model (expert) and let the aggregation of a finite ensemble of individual models (experts) be the highest-ranked individual model (expert) in that ensemble. (3) Give each individual model (expert) a weight, introduce a weak order/ranking over the set of models/experts, aggregate $A$ and $B$ as the weighted average of the highest-ranked models (experts) in $A$ or $B$. Note that (1) and (2) are particular cases of (3). In this paper, we show that all rational aggregation rules are of the form (3). This result unifies aggregation procedures across different economic environments. Following the main representation, we show applications and extensions of our representation in various separated economics topics such as belief formation, choice theory, and social welfare economics.