Causal discovery, the learning of causality in a data mining scenario, has been of strong scientific and theoretical interest as a starting point to identify "what causes what?" Contingent on assumptions, it is sometimes possible to identify an exact causal Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), as opposed to a Markov equivalence class of graphs that gives ambiguity of causal directions. The focus of this paper is on one such case: a linear structural equation model with non-Gaussian noise, a model known as the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM). Given a specified parametric noise model, we develop a novel sequential approach to estimate the causal ordering of a DAG. At each step of the procedure, only simple likelihood ratio scores are calculated on regression residuals to decide the next node to append to the current partial ordering. Under mild assumptions, the population version of our procedure provably identifies a true ordering of the underlying causal DAG. We provide extensive numerical evidence to demonstrate that our sequential procedure is scalable to cases with possibly thousands of nodes and works well for high-dimensional data. We also conduct an application to a single-cell gene expression dataset to demonstrate our estimation procedure.

Mean rewards of actions are often correlated. The form of these correlations may be complex and unknown a priori, such as the preferences of a user for recommended products and their categories. To maximize statistical efficiency, it is important to leverage these correlations when learning. We formulate a bandit variant of this problem where the correlations of mean action rewards are represented by a hierarchical Bayesian model with latent variables. Since the hierarchy can have multiple layers, we call it deep. We propose a hierarchical Thompson sampling algorithm (HierTS) for this problem, and show how to implement it efficiently for Gaussian hierarchies. The efficient implementation is possible due to a novel exact hierarchical representation of the posterior, which itself is of independent interest. We use this exact posterior to analyze the Bayes regret of HierTS in Gaussian bandits. Our analysis reflects the structure of the problem, that the regret decreases with the prior width, and also shows that hierarchies reduce the regret by non-constant factors in the number of actions. We confirm these theoretical findings empirically, in both synthetic and real-world experiments.

Classification algorithms are particularly common in machine learning because they map input data into predefined categories, making the process easier for the user. They analyze data automatically, simplify operations, and obtain useful information. We will learn about the many types of classifiers used in machine learning in this post. But first, let's define what classifiers are. In machine learning, a classifier is an algorithm that automatically sorts or categorizes data into one or more "classes." Targets, labels, and categories are all terms used to describe classes.

The Meantime To Failure (MTTF) is a statistic used for system analysis in several knowledge areas. This value represents the average time to the system enters into one of the possible states of fault, without considering system repairs. Although MTTF be considered to analyze systems with fault states, it also can be used to perform analysis on processes, since it can be used to represent the meantime to one process finishes, given that, processes can be represented by state machine models. This work presents a method to compute MTTF from Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) models. There are no arguments that demonstrate that this method performs better than other methods, but this method has a simpler implementation and is intuitive. This method also allows computing the absorption probabilities and the average holding time of each state without additional steps.

We present energy-based generative flow networks (EB-GFN), a novel probabilistic modeling algorithm for high-dimensional discrete data. Building upon the theory of generative flow networks (GFlowNets), we model the generation process by a stochastic data construction policy and thus amortize expensive MCMC exploration into a fixed number of actions sampled from a GFlowNet. We show how GFlowNets can approximately perform large-block Gibbs sampling to mix between modes. We propose a framework to jointly train a GFlowNet with an energy function, so that the GFlowNet learns to sample from the energy distribution, while the energy learns with an approximate MLE objective with negative samples from the GFlowNet. We demonstrate EB-GFN's effectiveness on various probabilistic modeling tasks.

We show how probabilistic numerics can be used to convert an initial value problem into a Gauss--Markov process parametrised by the dynamics of the initial value problem. Consequently, the often difficult problem of parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations is reduced to hyperparameter estimation in Gauss--Markov regression, which tends to be considerably easier. The method's relation and benefits in comparison to classical numerical integration and gradient matching approaches is elucidated. In particular, the method can, in contrast to gradient matching, handle partial observations, and has certain routes for escaping local optima not available to classical numerical integration. Experimental results demonstrate that the method is on par or moderately better than competing approaches.

Approximating probability distributions can be a challenging task, particularly when they are supported over regions of high geometrical complexity or exhibit multiple modes. Annealing can be used to facilitate this task which is often combined with constant a priori selected increments in inverse temperature. However, using constant increments limit the computational efficiency due to the inability to adapt to situations where smooth changes in the annealed density could be handled equally well with larger increments. We introduce AdaAnn, an adaptive annealing scheduler that automatically adjusts the temperature increments based on the expected change in the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two distributions with a sufficiently close annealing temperature. AdaAnn is easy to implement and can be integrated into existing sampling approaches such as normalizing flows for variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the computational efficiency of the AdaAnn scheduler for variational inference with normalizing flows on a number of examples, including density approximation and parameter estimation for dynamical systems.

Optimization is a ubiquitous modeling tool and is often deployed in settings which repeatedly solve similar instances of the same problem. Amortized optimization methods use learning to predict the solutions to problems in these settings. This leverages the shared structure between similar problem instances. In this tutorial, we will discuss the key design choices behind amortized optimization, roughly categorizing 1) models into fully-amortized and semi-amortized approaches, and 2) learning methods into regression-based and objectivebased. We then view existing applications through these foundations to draw connections between them, including for manifold optimization, variational inference, sparse coding, meta-learning, control, reinforcement learning, convex optimization, and deep equilibrium networks. This framing enables us easily see, for example, that the amortized inference in variational autoencoders is conceptually identical to value gradients in control and reinforcement learning as they both use fully-amortized models with an objective-based loss.

Contextual bandits are commonly used for sequential decision-making with finitely many control actions. In this setting, available context observations can be utilized in a tractable way, thanks to the linearity of the relationship between the reward and the context vectors. The arms provide rewards depending on the contexts that represent their individual characteristics. The range of real-world applications is notably extensive, including personalized recommendations for Mobile Context-Aware Recommender Systems and mobile-health interventions [1, 2, 3]. To get satisfactory performances in bandits, the exploration-exploitation trade-off must be addressed. The theoretical analysis of efficient policies for the multi-armed bandits goes back to algorithms that decide based on Upper-Confident-Bounds (UCB) [4]. In fact, UCB employs an optimistic approximate of the unknown reward based on the history of observations, to allow an appropriate degree of exploration. Further theoretical results for UCB in contextual bandits, as well as in other settings, are available in the literature [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. Posterior sampling is another ubiquitous reinforcement learning algorithm that effectively balances exploitation versus exploration.

Bayesian approaches developed to solve the optimal design of sequential experiments are mathematically elegant but computationally challenging. Recently, techniques using amortization have been proposed to make these Bayesian approaches practical, by training a parameterized policy that proposes designs efficiently at deployment time. However, these methods may not sufficiently explore the design space, require access to a differentiable probabilistic model and can only optimize over continuous design spaces. Here, we address these limitations by showing that the problem of optimizing policies can be reduced to solving a Markov decision process (MDP). We solve the equivalent MDP with modern deep reinforcement learning techniques. Our experiments show that our approach is also computationally efficient at deployment time and exhibits state-of-the-art performance on both continuous and discrete design spaces, even when the probabilistic model is a black box.