In this paper, we study the long-time convergence and uniform strong propagation of chaos for a class of nonlinear Markov chains for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Our technique is quite simple, making use of recent contraction estimates for linear Markov kernels and basic techniques from Markov theory and analysis. Moreover, the same proof strategy applies to both the long-time convergence and propagation of chaos. We also show, via some experiments, that these nonlinear MCMC techniques are viable for use in real-world high-dimensional inference such as Bayesian neural networks.

The (probabilistic) graphical model consists of a collection of probability distributions that factorize according to the structure of an underlying graph [52]. The graphical model captures the complex dependencies among random variables and build large-scale multivariate statistical models, which has been used in many research areas such as hierarchical Bayesian models [27], contingency table analysis [20, 53] in categorical data analysis [1, 23, 37], constraint satisfaction [16, 15], language and speech processing [11, 31], image processing [17, 24, 28] and spatial statistics more generally [8]. In our work, we focus on the undirected graphical models, where the probability distribution factorizes according to the function defined on the cliques of the graph. The undirected graphical models have a variety of applications, including statistical physics [32], natural language processing [38], image analysis [54] and spatial statistics [43]. Specifically, we pay attention to the undirected graphical models which can be described as exponential families, a broad class of probability distributions elaborately studied in many statistical literature [4, 21, 13]. The properties of the exponential families provide some connections between the inference methods and the convex analysis [12, 29]. There are many well-known examples that are undirected graphical models viewed as exponential families, such as Ising model [32, 5], Gaussian MRF [46] and latent Dirichlet allocation [11].

A limitation for collaborative robots (cobots) is their lack of ability to adapt to human partners, who typically exhibit an immense diversity of behaviors. We present an autonomous framework as a cobot's real-time decision-making mechanism to anticipate a variety of human characteristics and behaviors, including human errors, toward a personalized collaboration. Our framework handles such behaviors in two levels: 1) short-term human behaviors are adapted through our novel Anticipatory Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (A-POMDP) models, covering a human's changing intent (motivation), availability, and capability; 2) long-term changing human characteristics are adapted by our novel Adaptive Bayesian Policy Selection (ABPS) mechanism that selects a short-term decision model, e.g., an A-POMDP, according to an estimate of a human's workplace characteristics, such as her expertise and collaboration preferences. To design and evaluate our framework over a diversity of human behaviors, we propose a pipeline where we first train and rigorously test the framework in simulation over novel human models. Then, we deploy and evaluate it on our novel physical experiment setup that induces cognitive load on humans to observe their dynamic behaviors, including their mistakes, and their changing characteristics such as their expertise. We conduct user studies and show that our framework effectively collaborates non-stop for hours and adapts to various changing human behaviors and characteristics in real-time. That increases the efficiency and naturalness of the collaboration with a higher perceived collaboration, positive teammate traits, and human trust. We believe that such an extended human adaptation is key to the long-term use of cobots.

We will understand how our assumptions on the data enable us to create meaningful optimization problems. In fact, we will derive commonly used criteria such as cross-entropy in classification and mean square error in regression. Finally, I am trying to answer an interview question that I encountered: What would happen if we use MSE on binary classification? To begin, let's start with a fundamental question: what is the difference between likelihood and probability? The data xxx are connected to the possible models θ\thetaθ by means of a probability P(x,θ)P(x,\theta)P(x,θ) or a probability density function (pdf) p(x,θ)p(x,\theta)p(x,θ).

The probability of randomly picking a red ball out of the bucket is 7/15. You can write it as P(red) 7/15. If we were to draw balls one at a time without replacing them, what is the probability of getting a black ball on a second attempt after drawing a red one on the first attempt? You can see that the above question is worded to provide us with the condition that needs to be satisfied first before the second attempt is made. That condition says that a red ball must be drawn during the first attempt.

Events across a timeline are a common data representation, seen in different temporal modalities. Individual atomic events can occur in a certain temporal ordering to compose higher level composite events. Examples of a composite event are a patient's medical symptom or a baseball player hitting a home run, caused distinct temporal orderings of patient vitals and player movements respectively. Such salient composite events are provided as labels in temporal datasets and most works optimize models to predict these composite event labels directly. We focus on uncovering the underlying atomic events and their relations that lead to the composite events within a noisy temporal data setting. We propose Neural Temporal Logic Programming (Neural TLP) which first learns implicit temporal relations between atomic events and then lifts logic rules for composite events, given only the composite events labels for supervision. This is done through efficiently searching through the combinatorial space of all temporal logic rules in an end-to-end differentiable manner. We evaluate our method on video and healthcare datasets where it outperforms the baseline methods for rule discovery.

We consider an extension to the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown arm dynamics, where an unknown exogenous global Markov process governs the rewards distribution of each arm. Under each global state, the rewards process of each arm evolves according to an unknown Markovian rule, which is non-identical among different arms. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of $N$ arms to play, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The arms are restless, that is, their local state evolves regardless of the player's actions. Motivated by recent studies on related RMAB settings, the regret is defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that knows the dynamics of the problem, and plays at each time $t$ the arm that maximizes the expected immediate value. The objective is to develop an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret. To that end, we develop the Learning under Exogenous Markov Process (LEMP) algorithm. We analyze LEMP theoretically and establish a finite-sample bound on the regret. We show that LEMP achieves a logarithmic regret order with time. We further analyze LEMP numerically and present simulation results that support the theoretical findings and demonstrate that LEMP significantly outperforms alternative algorithms.

In the multi-agent path finding problem (MAPF) we are given a set of agents each with respective start and goal positions. The task is to find paths for all agents while avoiding collisions, aiming to minimize a given objective function. Many MAPF solvers were introduced in the past decade for optimizing two specific objective functions: sum-of-costs and makespan. Two prominent categories of solvers can be distinguished: search-based solvers and compilation-based solvers. Search-based solvers were developed and tested for the sum-of-costs objective, while the most prominent compilation-based solvers that are built around Boolean satisfiability (SAT) were designed for the makespan objective. Very little is known on the performance and relevance of solvers from the compilation-based approach on the sum-of-costs objective. In this paper, we start to close the gap between these cost functions in the compilation-based approach. Our main contribution is a new SAT-based MAPF solver called MDD-SAT, that is directly aimed to optimally solve the MAPF problem under the sum-of-costs objective function. Using both a lower bound on the sum-of-costs and an upper bound on the makespan, MDD-SAT is able to generate a reasonable number of Boolean variables in our SAT encoding. We then further improve the encoding by borrowing ideas from ICTS, a search-based solver. In addition, we show that concepts applicable in search-based solvers like ICTS and ICBS are applicable in the SAT-based approach as well. Specifically, we integrate independence detection, a generic technique for decomposing an MAPF instance into independent subproblems, into our SAT-based approach, and we design a relaxation of our optimal SAT-based solver that results in a bounded suboptimal SAT-based solver. Experimental evaluation on several domains shows that there are many scenarios where our SAT-based methods outperform state-of-the-art sum-of-costs search-based solvers, such as variants of the ICTS and ICBS algorithms.

Statistical modeling and inference problems with sample sizes substantially smaller than the number of available covariates are challenging. Chakraborty et al. (2012) did a full hierarchical Bayesian analysis of nonlinear regression in such situations using relevance vector machines based on reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). But they did not provide any theoretical properties associated with their procedure. The present paper revisits their problem, introduces a new class of global-local priors different from theirs, and provides results on posterior consistency as well as posterior contraction rates.

Online selection of optimal waveforms for target tracking with active sensors has long been a problem of interest. Many conventional solutions utilize an estimation-theoretic interpretation, in which a waveform-specific Cram\'{e}r-Rao lower bound on measurement error is used to select the optimal waveform for each tracking step. However, this approach is only valid in the high SNR regime, and requires a rather restrictive set of assumptions regarding the target motion and measurement models. Further, due to computational concerns, many traditional approaches are limited to near-term, or myopic, optimization, even though radar scenes exhibit strong temporal correlation. More recently, reinforcement learning has been proposed for waveform selection, in which the problem is framed as a Markov decision process (MDP), allowing for long-term planning. However, a major limitation of reinforcement learning is that the memory length of the underlying Markov process is often unknown for realistic target and channel dynamics, and a more general framework is desirable. This work develops a universal sequential waveform selection scheme which asymptotically achieves Bellman optimality in any radar scene which can be modeled as a $U^{\text{th}}$ order Markov process for a finite, but unknown, integer $U$. Our approach is based on well-established tools from the field of universal source coding, where a stationary source is parsed into variable length phrases in order to build a context-tree, which is used as a probabalistic model for the scene's behavior. We show that an algorithm based on a multi-alphabet version of the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW) method can be used to optimally solve a broad class of waveform-agile tracking problems while making minimal assumptions about the environment's behavior.