Learning Graphical Models
Improving aircraft performance using machine learning: a review
Clainche, Soledad Le, Ferrer, Esteban, Gibson, Sam, Cross, Elisabeth, Parente, Alessandro, Vinuesa, Ricardo
Climate change and increasing resource scarcity are challenges that Europe needs to face in the coming decades. All this has a direct impact on air transport, which is struggling to maintain its performance and competitiveness while ensuring a development focused on sustainable mobility. Research and innovation are essential to maintain the capabilities of the aviation industry, driven by the rise of new markets and new competitors as a result of globalization. A new longterm vision for the aeronautics sector is essential to ensure its successful advancement. In this line, new requirements for the future aviation industry have been defined by the ACARE Flightpath 2050, a Group of Recognized Personalities in the aeronautic sector, including stakeholders from the aeronautics industry, air traffic management, airports, airlines, energy providers and the research community. Aeronautics and air transport comprises both: air vehicle and system technology.
Mode Reduction for Markov Jump Systems
Du, Zhe, Balzano, Laura, Ozay, Necmiye
Switched systems are capable of modeling processes with underlying dynamics that may change abruptly over time. To achieve accurate modeling in practice, one may need a large number of modes, but this may in turn increase the model complexity drastically. Existing work on reducing system complexity mainly considers state space reduction, whereas reducing the number of modes is less studied. In this work, we consider Markov jump linear systems (MJSs), a special class of switched systems where the active mode switches according to a Markov chain, and several issues associated with its mode complexity. Specifically, inspired by clustering techniques from unsupervised learning, we are able to construct a reduced MJS with fewer modes that approximates the original MJS well under various metrics. Furthermore, both theoretically and empirically, we show how one can use the reduced MJS to analyze stability and design controllers with significant reduction in computational cost while achieving guaranteed accuracy.
Understanding Non-linearity in Graph Neural Networks from the Bayesian-Inference Perspective
Wei, Rongzhe, Yin, Haoteng, Jia, Junteng, Benson, Austin R., Li, Pan
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown superiority in many prediction tasks over graphs due to their impressive capability of capturing nonlinear relations in graph-structured data. However, for node classification tasks, often, only marginal improvement of GNNs over their linear counterparts has been observed. Previous works provide very few understandings of this phenomenon. In this work, we resort to Bayesian learning to deeply investigate the functions of non-linearity in GNNs for node classification tasks. Given a graph generated from the statistical model CSBM, we observe that the max-a-posterior estimation of a node label given its own and neighbors' attributes consists of two types of non-linearity, a possibly non-linear transformation of node attributes and a ReLU-activated feature aggregation from neighbors. The latter surprisingly matches the type of non-linearity used in many GNN models. By further imposing Gaussian assumption on node attributes, we prove that the superiority of those ReLU activations is only significant when the node attributes are far more informative than the graph structure, which nicely matches many previous empirical observations. A similar argument can be achieved when there is a distribution shift of node attributes between the training and testing datasets. Finally, we verify our theory on both synthetic and real-world networks.
Fine-Grained Session Recommendations in E-commerce using Deep Reinforcement Learning
Bharadwaj, Diddigi Raghu Ram, Kumar, Lakshya, Jawaid, Saif, Vempati, Sreekanth
Sustaining users' interest and keeping them engaged in the platform is very important for the success of an e-commerce business. A session encompasses different activities of a user between logging into the platform and logging out or making a purchase. User activities in a session can be classified into two groups: Known Intent and Unknown intent. Known intent activity pertains to the session where the intent of a user to browse/purchase a specific product can be easily captured. Whereas in unknown intent activity, the intent of the user is not known. For example, consider the scenario where a user enters the session to casually browse the products over the platform, similar to the window shopping experience in the offline setting. While recommending similar products is essential in the former, accurately understanding the intent and recommending interesting products is essential in the latter setting in order to retain a user. In this work, we focus primarily on the unknown intent setting where our objective is to recommend a sequence of products to a user in a session to sustain their interest, keep them engaged and possibly drive them towards purchase. We formulate this problem in the framework of the Markov Decision Process (MDP), a popular mathematical framework for sequential decision making and solve it using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) techniques. However, training the next product recommendation is difficult in the RL paradigm due to large variance in browse/purchase behavior of the users. Therefore, we break the problem down into predicting various product attributes, where a pattern/trend can be identified and exploited to build accurate models. We show that the DRL agent provides better performance compared to a greedy strategy.
Safe Policy Improvement in Constrained Markov Decision Processes
The automatic synthesis of a policy through reinforcement learning (RL) from a given set of formal requirements depends on the construction of a reward signal and consists of the iterative application of many policy-improvement steps. The synthesis algorithm has to balance target, safety, and comfort requirements in a single objective and to guarantee that the policy improvement does not increase the number of safety-requirements violations, especially for safety-critical applications. In this work, we present a solution to the synthesis problem by solving its two main challenges: reward-shaping from a set of formal requirements and safe policy update. For the former, we propose an automatic reward-shaping procedure, defining a scalar reward signal compliant with the task specification. For the latter, we introduce an algorithm ensuring that the policy is improved in a safe fashion with high-confidence guarantees. We also discuss the adoption of a model-based RL algorithm to efficiently use the collected data and train a model-free agent on the predicted trajectories, where the safety violation does not have the same impact as in the real world. Finally, we demonstrate in standard control benchmarks that the resulting learning procedure is effective and robust even under heavy perturbations of the hyperparameters.
Learning Robust Dynamics through Variational Sparse Gating
Jain, Arnav Kumar, Sujit, Shivakanth, Joshi, Shruti, Michalski, Vincent, Hafner, Danijar, Ebrahimi-Kahou, Samira
Learning world models from their sensory inputs enables agents to plan for actions by imagining their future outcomes. World models have previously been shown to improve sample-efficiency in simulated environments with few objects, but have not yet been applied successfully to environments with many objects. In environments with many objects, often only a small number of them are moving or interacting at the same time. In this paper, we investigate integrating this inductive bias of sparse interactions into the latent dynamics of world models trained from pixels. First, we introduce Variational Sparse Gating (VSG), a latent dynamics model that updates its feature dimensions sparsely through stochastic binary gates. Moreover, we propose a simplified architecture Simple Variational Sparse Gating (SVSG) that removes the deterministic pathway of previous models, resulting in a fully stochastic transition function that leverages the VSG mechanism. We evaluate the two model architectures in the BringBackShapes (BBS) environment that features a large number of moving objects and partial observability, demonstrating clear improvements over prior models.
Model-based Lifelong Reinforcement Learning with Bayesian Exploration
Fu, Haotian, Yu, Shangqun, Littman, Michael, Konidaris, George
We propose a model-based lifelong reinforcement-learning approach that estimates a hierarchical Bayesian posterior distilling the common structure shared across different tasks. The learned posterior combined with a sample-based Bayesian exploration procedure increases the sample efficiency of learning across a family of related tasks. We first derive an analysis of the relationship between the sample complexity and the initialization quality of the posterior in the finite MDP setting. We next scale the approach to continuous-state domains by introducing a Variational Bayesian Lifelong Reinforcement Learning algorithm that can be combined with recent model-based deep RL methods, and that exhibits backward transfer. Experimental results on several challenging domains show that our algorithms achieve both better forward and backward transfer performance than state-of-the-art lifelong RL methods.
On Margins and Generalisation for Voting Classifiers
Biggs, Felix, Zantedeschi, Valentina, Guedj, Benjamin
We study the generalisation properties of majority voting on finite ensembles of classifiers, proving margin-based generalisation bounds via the PAC-Bayes theory. These provide state-of-the-art guarantees on a number of classification tasks. Our central results leverage the Dirichlet posteriors studied recently by Zantedeschi et al. [2021] for training voting classifiers; in contrast to that work our bounds apply to non-randomised votes via the use of margins. Our contributions add perspective to the debate on the "margins theory" proposed by Schapire et al. [1998] for the generalisation of ensemble classifiers.
Independence Testing-Based Approach to Causal Discovery under Measurement Error and Linear Non-Gaussian Models
Dai, Haoyue, Spirtes, Peter, Zhang, Kun
Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures generating the observational data. Despite its success in certain problems, in many real-world scenarios the observed variables are not the target variables of interest, but the imperfect measures of the target variables. Causal discovery under measurement error aims to recover the causal graph among unobserved target variables from observations made with measurement error. We consider a specific formulation of the problem, where the unobserved target variables follow a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model, and the measurement process follows the random measurement error model. Existing methods on this formulation rely on non-scalable over-complete independent component analysis (OICA). In this work, we propose the Transformed Independent Noise (TIN) condition, which checks for independence between a specific linear transformation of some measured variables and certain other measured variables. By leveraging the non-Gaussianity and higher-order statistics of data, TIN is informative about the graph structure among the unobserved target variables. By utilizing TIN, the ordered group decomposition of the causal model is identifiable. In other words, we could achieve what once required OICA to achieve by only conducting independence tests. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our method.
Transferring Dexterous Manipulation from GPU Simulation to a Remote Real-World TriFinger
Allshire, Arthur, Mittal, Mayank, Lodaya, Varun, Makoviychuk, Viktor, Makoviichuk, Denys, Widmaier, Felix, Wüthrich, Manuel, Bauer, Stefan, Handa, Ankur, Garg, Animesh
We present a system for learning a challenging dexterous manipulation task involving moving a cube to an arbitrary 6-DoF pose with only 3-fingers trained with NVIDIA's IsaacGym simulator. We show empirical benefits, both in simulation and sim-to-real transfer, of using keypoints as opposed to position+quaternion representations for the object pose in 6-DoF for policy observations and in reward calculation to train a model-free reinforcement learning agent. By utilizing domain randomization strategies along with the keypoint representation of the pose of the manipulated object, we achieve a high success rate of 83% on a remote TriFinger system maintained by the organizers of the Real Robot Challenge. With the aim of assisting further research in learning in-hand manipulation, we make the codebase of our system, along with trained checkpoints that come with billions of steps of experience available, at https://s2r2-ig.github.io