Learning Graphical Models
Teacher-student curriculum learning for reinforcement learning
Reinforcement learning (rl) is a popular paradigm for sequential decision making problems. The past decade's advances in rl have led to breakthroughs in many challenging domains such as video games, board games, robotics, and chip design. The sample inefficiency of deep reinforcement learning methods is a significant obstacle when applying rl to real-world problems. Transfer learning has been applied to reinforcement learning such that the knowledge gained in one task can be applied when training in a new task. Curriculum learning is concerned with sequencing tasks or data samples such that knowledge can be transferred between those tasks to learn a target task that would otherwise be too difficult to solve. Designing a curriculum that improves sample efficiency is a complex problem. In this thesis, we propose a teacher-student curriculum learning setting where we simultaneously train a teacher that selects tasks for the student while the student learns how to solve the selected task. Our method is independent of human domain knowledge and manual curriculum design. We evaluated our methods on two reinforcement learning benchmarks: grid world and the challenging Google Football environment. With our method, we can improve the sample efficiency and generality of the student compared to tabula-rasa reinforcement learning.
Probabilistic Decomposition Transformer for Time Series Forecasting
Tong, Junlong, Xie, Liping, Yang, Wankou, Zhang, Kanjian
Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the complex temporal patterns of the time series hinder the model from mining reliable temporal dependencies. Furthermore, the autoregressive form of the Transformer introduces cumulative errors in the inference step. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic decomposition Transformer model that combines the Transformer with a conditional generative model, which provides hierarchical and interpretable probabilistic forecasts for intricate time series. The Transformer is employed to learn temporal patterns and implement primary probabilistic forecasts, while the conditional generative model is used to achieve non-autoregressive hierarchical probabilistic forecasts by introducing latent space feature representations. In addition, the conditional generative model reconstructs typical features of the series, such as seasonality and trend terms, from probability distributions in the latent space to enable complex pattern separation and provide interpretable forecasts. Extensive experiments on several datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model, indicating that it compares favorably with the state of the art.
Unclonability and Quantum Cryptanalysis: From Foundations to Applications
The impossibility of creating perfect identical copies of unknown quantum systems is a fundamental concept in quantum theory and one of the main non-classical properties of quantum information. This limitation imposed by quantum mechanics, famously known as the no-cloning theorem, has played a central role in quantum cryptography as a key component in the security of quantum protocols. In this thesis, we look at Unclonability in a broader context in physics and computer science and more specifically through the lens of cryptography, learnability and hardware assumptions. We introduce new notions of unclonability in the quantum world, namely quantum physical unclonability, and study the relationship with cryptographic properties and assumptions such as unforgeability, and quantum pseudorandomness. The purpose of this study is to bring new insights into the field of quantum cryptanalysis and into the notion of unclonability itself. We also discuss several applications of this new type of unclonability as a cryptographic resource for designing provably secure quantum protocols. Furthermore, we present a new practical cryptanalysis technique concerning the problem of approximate cloning of quantum states. We design a quantum machine learning-based cryptanalysis algorithm to demonstrate the power of quantum learning tools as both attack strategies and powerful tools for the practical study of quantum unclonability.
Maximum-Likelihood Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Finite-Time Guarantees
Zeng, Siliang, Li, Chenliang, Garcia, Alfredo, Hong, Mingyi
Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to recover the reward function and the associated optimal policy that best fits observed sequences of states and actions implemented by an expert. Many algorithms for IRL have an inherently nested structure: the inner loop finds the optimal policy given parametrized rewards while the outer loop updates the estimates towards optimizing a measure of fit. For high dimensional environments such nested-loop structure entails a significant computational burden. To reduce the computational burden of a nested loop, novel methods such as SQIL [1] and IQ-Learn [2] emphasize policy estimation at the expense of reward estimation accuracy. However, without accurate estimated rewards, it is not possible to do counterfactual analysis such as predicting the optimal policy under different environment dynamics and/or learning new tasks. In this paper we develop a novel single-loop algorithm for IRL that does not compromise reward estimation accuracy. In the proposed algorithm, each policy improvement step is followed by a stochastic gradient step for likelihood maximization. We show that the proposed algorithm provably converges to a stationary solution with a finite-time guarantee. If the reward is parameterized linearly, we show the identified solution corresponds to the solution of the maximum entropy IRL problem. Finally, by using robotics control problems in MuJoCo and their transfer settings, we show that the proposed algorithm achieves superior performance compared with other IRL and imitation learning benchmarks.
VertiBayes: Learning Bayesian network parameters from vertically partitioned data with missing values
van Daalen, Florian, Ippel, Lianne, Dekker, Andre, Bermejo, Inigo
Federated learning makes it possible to train a machine learning model on decentralized data. Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models that have been widely used in artificial intelligence applications. Their popularity stems from the fact they can be built by combining existing expert knowledge with data and are highly interpretable, which makes them useful for decision support, e.g. in healthcare. While some research has been published on the federated learning of Bayesian networks, publications on Bayesian networks in a vertically partitioned or heterogeneous data setting (where different variables are located in different datasets) are limited, and suffer from important omissions, such as the handling of missing data. In this article, we propose a novel method called VertiBayes to train Bayesian networks (structure and parameters) on vertically partitioned data, which can handle missing values as well as an arbitrary number of parties. For structure learning we adapted the widely used K2 algorithm with a privacy-preserving scalar product protocol. For parameter learning, we use a two-step approach: first, we learn an intermediate model using maximum likelihood by treating missing values as a special value and then we train a model on synthetic data generated by the intermediate model using the EM algorithm. The privacy guarantees of our approach are equivalent to the ones provided by the privacy preserving scalar product protocol used. We experimentally show our approach produces models comparable to those learnt using traditional algorithms and we estimate the increase in complexity in terms of samples, network size, and complexity. Finally, we propose two alternative approaches to estimate the performance of the model using vertically partitioned data and we show in experiments that they lead to reasonably accurate estimates.
Controllable Factuality in Document-Grounded Dialog Systems Using a Noisy Channel Model
Daheim, Nico, Thulke, David, Dugast, Christian, Ney, Hermann
In this work, we present a model for document-grounded response generation in dialog that is decomposed into two components according to Bayes theorem. One component is a traditional ungrounded response generation model and the other component models the reconstruction of the grounding document based on the dialog context and generated response. We propose different approximate decoding schemes and evaluate our approach on multiple open-domain and task-oriented document-grounded dialog datasets. Our experiments show that the model is more factual in terms of automatic factuality metrics than the baseline model. Furthermore, we outline how introducing scaling factors between the components allows for controlling the tradeoff between factuality and fluency in the model output. Finally, we compare our approach to a recently proposed method to control factuality in grounded dialog, CTRL (arXiv:2107.06963), and show that both approaches can be combined to achieve additional improvements.
Computing Rule-Based Explanations by Leveraging Counterfactuals
Geng, Zixuan, Schleich, Maximilian, Suciu, Dan
Sophisticated machine models are increasingly used for high-stakes decisions in everyday life. There is an urgent need to develop effective explanation techniques for such automated decisions. Rule-Based Explanations have been proposed for high-stake decisions like loan applications, because they increase the users' trust in the decision. However, rule-based explanations are very inefficient to compute, and existing systems sacrifice their quality in order to achieve reasonable performance. We propose a novel approach to compute rule-based explanations, by using a different type of explanation, Counterfactual Explanations, for which several efficient systems have already been developed. We prove a Duality Theorem, showing that rule-based and counterfactual-based explanations are dual to each other, then use this observation to develop an efficient algorithm for computing rule-based explanations, which uses the counterfactual-based explanation as an oracle. We conduct extensive experiments showing that our system computes rule-based explanations of higher quality, and with the same or better performance, than two previous systems, MinSetCover and Anchor.
Review on Monitoring, Operation and Maintenance of Smart Offshore Wind Farms
Kou, Lei, Li, Yang, Zhang, Fangfang, Gong, Xiaodong, Hu, Yinghong, Yuan, Quande, Ke, Wende
In recent years, with the development of wind energy, the number and scale of wind farms have been developing rapidly. Since offshore wind farms have the advantages of stable wind speed, being clean renewable, non-polluting, and the non-occupation of cultivated land, they have gradually become a new trend in the wind power industry all over the world. The operation and maintenance of offshore wind powe has been developing in the direction of digitization and intelligence. It is of great significance to carry ou research on the monitoring, operation, and maintenance of offshore wind farms, which will be of benefit fo the reduction of the operation and maintenance costs, the improvement of the power generation efficiency improvement of the stability of offshore wind farm systems, and the building of smart offshore wind farms This paper will mainly summarize the monitoring, operation, and maintenance of offshore wind farms, with particular focus on the following points: monitoring of "offshore wind power engineering and biological and environment", the monitoring of power equipment, and the operation and maintenance of smart offshore wind farms. Finally, the future research challenges in relation to the monitoring, operation, and maintenance of smart offshore wind farms are proposed, and the future research directions in this field are explored especially in marine environment monitoring, weather and climate prediction, intelligent monitoring of powe equipment, and digital platforms.
Planning to the Information Horizon of BAMDPs via Epistemic State Abstraction
Arumugam, Dilip, Singh, Satinder
The Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP) formalism pursues the Bayes-optimal solution to the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning. As the computation of exact solutions to Bayesian reinforcement-learning problems is intractable, much of the literature has focused on developing suitable approximation algorithms. In this work, before diving into algorithm design, we first define, under mild structural assumptions, a complexity measure for BAMDP planning. As efficient exploration in BAMDPs hinges upon the judicious acquisition of information, our complexity measure highlights the worst-case difficulty of gathering information and exhausting epistemic uncertainty. To illustrate its significance, we establish a computationally-intractable, exact planning algorithm that takes advantage of this measure to show more efficient planning. We then conclude by introducing a specific form of state abstraction with the potential to reduce BAMDP complexity and gives rise to a computationally-tractable, approximate planning algorithm.
Nonlinear Causal Discovery via Kernel Anchor Regression
Causal relationships are concerned with consequences of actions or decisions; thus, understanding these relationships can be the key ingredient in many scientific studies. For instance, medical practitioners need to know whether a treatment is effective to the target disease in clinical trials; econometricians ask whether a particular purchasing behaviour drives a change in Consumer Price Index (CPI); epidemiologists want to understand whether a government intervention policy has a positive effect on the pandemic. While the goal of revealing causal effects remains the same, the focus in causal relationships can differ by applications. To describe different aspects of the causal notion and design statistical procedures for inferring causal effects, various frameworks have been developed including Rubin's potential outcome framework [Rubin, 2004, 2005], counterfactual distributions [Chernozhukov et al., 2013] and Pearl's causal graphical models [Pearl et al., 2000, 2016]. A succinct yet comprehensive introduction can be found in Peters et al. [2017]. Causality has also been an evolving field in machine learning community and machine learning techniques have been considered to improve the statistical procedures for causal discovery. In particular, nonparmetric independence [Gretton et al., 2005] and conditional independence [Fukumizu et al., 2007] measures have been exploited to infer causal graphical models [Colombo