In the last decade, advanced approaches to the analysis and exploitation of large amounts of heterogeneous data ("big data") have gained tremendous attention, particularly on the part of corporate decision-makers but also from academic researchers [1, 2, 3]. The term "advanced analytics" generally refers to various methods beyond traditional multivariate statistics, mainly from the field of machine learning (ML), that leverage big data to drive decisions and actions (e.g., in organizations) [4, 5, 1, 6]. While researchers started to emphasize the suitability of these approaches mostly for (i) the design of innovative artifacts (e.g., decision support or process automation systems) and (ii) the induction of knowledge from quantitative studies [7, 1, 8, 9], companies increasingly deploy analytics applications in order to exploit their promising business potential [4, 6]. Several research articles show that such applications--especially those driven by modern ML algorithms--may considerably improve efficiency and/or effectiveness in important business areas, such as predictive maintenance, financial fraud detection, capacity planning, and product recommendation [10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17]. The average return on investment of modern data analytics applications in a business context is estimated at an almost inconceivable rate of 1,301% [18].

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used for sequential state estimation tasks, as well as for modeling opinion formation over social networks under dynamic environments. We show that the disagreement with the optimal centralized solution is asymptotically bounded for the class of geometrically ergodic state transition models, which includes rapidly changing models. We also derive recursions for calculating the probability of error and establish convergence under Gaussian observation models. Simulations are provided to illustrate the theory and to compare against alternative approaches.

Amazon and other e-commerce sites must employ mechanisms to protect their millions of customers from fraud, such as unauthorized use of credit cards. One such mechanism is order fraud evaluation, where systems evaluate orders for fraud risk, and either "pass" the order, or take an action to mitigate high risk. Order fraud evaluation systems typically use binary classification models that distinguish fraudulent and legitimate orders, to assess risk and take action. We seek to devise a system that considers both financial losses of fraud and long-term customer satisfaction, which may be impaired when incorrect actions are applied to legitimate customers. We propose that taking actions to optimize long-term impact can be formulated as a Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem. Standard RL methods require online interaction with an environment to learn, but this is not desirable in high-stakes applications like order fraud evaluation. Offline RL algorithms learn from logged data collected from the environment, without the need for online interaction, making them suitable for our use case. We show that offline RL methods outperform traditional binary classification solutions in SimStore, a simplified e-commerce simulation that incorporates order fraud risk. We also propose a novel approach to training offline RL policies that adds a new loss term during training, to better align policy exploration with taking correct actions.

Bayesian network (BN) is a classical probability graph model. It combines probability theory with graph theory to deal with uncertainty and uses a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to represent the association between nodes. It has been successfully applied to prediction [1], risk analysis [2], semantic search, biological system modeling, and other practical fields [3].This field has two components: the structure learning of Bayesian networks and the parameter learning of Bayesian networks. The latter is based on the former, and the structure learning of Bayesian networks is often more important and complex [4]. BN can enable decisionmakers to make conditional causal inferences on uncertain behaviors with the help of the causal relationship of nodes in the network and can deduce the most powerful decision nodes that affect the results. Therefore, this paper focuses on how to generate a prediction network structure with the greatest similarity to the original network structure in a short time, rather than on whether the global score of the prediction model is higher [5]. The methods of learning Bayesian network structure (BNs) from data can generally be divided into three categories: constraint-based, score-based and search strategy, and hybrid algorithms [6]. Representative constraint-based methods mainly include grow-shrink (GS) [7], three-phase dependency analysis (TPDA) [8], PC [9], and incremental associated Markov blanket analysis (IAMB) [10]. The constraint-based methods usually make conditional independence (CI) tests between nodes (i.e.

Grammar Detection, also referred to as Parts of Speech Tagging of raw text, is considered an underlying building block of the various Natural Language Processing pipelines like named entity recognition, question answering, and sentiment analysis. In short, forgiven a sentence, Parts of Speech tagging is the task of specifying and tagging each word of a sentence with nouns, verbs, adjectives, adverbs, and more. Sentiment Analysis may well be a procedure accustomed to determining if a given sentence's emotional tone is neutral, positive or negative. To assign polarity scores to the thesis or entities within phrase, in-text analysis and analytics, machine learning and natural language processing, approaches are incorporated. This Sentiment Analysis using POS tagger helps us urge a summary of the broader public over a specific topic. For this, we are using the Viterbi algorithm, Hidden Markov Model, Constraint based Viterbi algorithm for POS tagging. By comparing the accuracies, we select the foremost accurate result of the model for Sentiment Analysis for determining the character of the sentence.

With data science being such a broad and constantly developing field, it's really impossible to have all the knowledge in your head. Especially if some of this knowledge you use only occasionally. Also, if you're a beginner in a certain field, you'll have to refresh very often what you learned until it becomes actual knowledge at the crossroads of theory and practice. Having something that you could look at and get the info you need at a glance would be pretty helpful, right? That'something' is called a cheat sheet. And it has nothing to do with cheating.

Graph learning problems are typically approached by focusing on learning the topology of a single graph when signals from all nodes are available. However, many contemporary setups involve multiple related networks and, moreover, it is often the case that only a subset of nodes is observed while the rest remain hidden. Motivated by this, we propose a joint graph learning method that takes into account the presence of hidden (latent) variables. Intuitively, the presence of the hidden nodes renders the inference task ill-posed and challenging to solve, so we overcome this detrimental influence by harnessing the similarity of the estimated graphs. To that end, we assume that the observed signals are drawn from a Gaussian Markov random field with latent variables and we carefully model the graph similarity among hidden (latent) nodes. Then, we exploit the structure resulting from the previous considerations to propose a convex optimization problem that solves the joint graph learning task by providing a regularized maximum likelihood estimator. Finally, we compare the proposed algorithm with different baselines and evaluate its performance over synthetic and real-world graphs.

Safety is still one of the major research challenges in reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we address the problem of how to avoid safety violations of RL agents during exploration in probabilistic and partially unknown environments. Our approach combines automata learning for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and shield synthesis in an iterative approach. Initially, the MDP representing the environment is unknown. The agent starts exploring the environment and collects traces. From the collected traces, we passively learn MDPs that abstractly represent the safety-relevant aspects of the environment. Given a learned MDP and a safety specification, we construct a shield. For each state-action pair within a learned MDP, the shield computes exact probabilities on how likely it is that executing the action results in violating the specification from the current state within the next $k$ steps. After the shield is constructed, the shield is used during runtime and blocks any actions that induce a too large risk from the agent. The shielded agent continues to explore the environment and collects new data on the environment. Iteratively, we use the collected data to learn new MDPs with higher accuracy, resulting in turn in shields able to prevent more safety violations. We implemented our approach and present a detailed case study of a Q-learning agent exploring slippery Gridworlds. In our experiments, we show that as the agent explores more and more of the environment during training, the improved learned models lead to shields that are able to prevent many safety violations.

Besides the recent impressive results on reinforcement learning (RL), safety is still one of the major research challenges in RL. RL is a machine-learning approach to determine near-optimal policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we consider the setting where the safety-relevant fragment of the MDP together with a temporal logic safety specification is given and many safety violations can be avoided by planning ahead a short time into the future. We propose an approach for online safety shielding of RL agents. During runtime, the shield analyses the safety of each available action. For any action, the shield computes the maximal probability to not violate the safety specification within the next $k$ steps when executing this action. Based on this probability and a given threshold, the shield decides whether to block an action from the agent. Existing offline shielding approaches compute exhaustively the safety of all state-action combinations ahead of time, resulting in huge computation times and large memory consumption. The intuition behind online shielding is to compute at runtime the set of all states that could be reached in the near future. For each of these states, the safety of all available actions is analysed and used for shielding as soon as one of the considered states is reached. Our approach is well suited for high-level planning problems where the time between decisions can be used for safety computations and it is sustainable for the agent to wait until these computations are finished. For our evaluation, we selected a 2-player version of the classical computer game SNAKE. The game represents a high-level planning problem that requires fast decisions and the multiplayer setting induces a large state space, which is computationally expensive to analyse exhaustively.

The task of topical segmentation is well studied, but previous work has mostly addressed it in the context of structured, well-defined segments, such as segmentation into paragraphs, chapters, or segmenting text that originated from multiple sources. We tackle the task of segmenting running (spoken) narratives, which poses hitherto unaddressed challenges. As a test case, we address Holocaust survivor testimonies, given in English. Other than the importance of studying these testimonies for Holocaust research, we argue that they provide an interesting test case for topical segmentation, due to their unstructured surface level, relative abundance (tens of thousands of such testimonies were collected), and the relatively confined domain that they cover. We hypothesize that boundary points between segments correspond to low mutual information between the sentences proceeding and following the boundary. Based on this hypothesis, we explore a range of algorithmic approaches to the task, building on previous work on segmentation that uses generative Bayesian modeling and state-of-the-art neural machinery. Compared to manually annotated references, we find that the developed approaches show considerable improvements over previous work.