Why should you take this course? Naive Bayes is one of the fundamental algorithms in machine learning, data science, and artificial intelligence. No practitioner is complete without mastering it. This course is designed to be appropriate for all levels of students, whether you are beginner, intermediate, or advanced. You'll learn both the intuition for how Naive Bayes works and how to apply it effectively while accounting for the unique characteristics of the Naive Bayes algorithm.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to inverse problems, as it could provide decision-makers with valuable information about the inversion results. For example, seismic inversion is a notoriously ill-posed inverse problem due to the band-limited and noisy nature of seismic data. It is therefore of paramount importance to quantify the uncertainties associated to the inversion process to ease the subsequent interpretation and decision making processes. Within this framework of reference, sampling from a target posterior provides a fundamental approach to quantifying the uncertainty in seismic inversion. However, selecting appropriate prior information in a probabilistic inversion is crucial, yet non-trivial, as it influences the ability of a sampling-based inference in providing geological realism in the posterior samples. To overcome such limitations, we present a regularized variational inference framework that performs posterior inference by implicitly regularizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss with a CNN-based denoiser by means of the Plug-and-Play methods. We call this new algorithm Plug-and-Play Stein Variational Gradient Descent (PnP-SVGD) and demonstrate its ability in producing high-resolution, trustworthy samples representative of the subsurface structures, which we argue could be used for post-inference tasks such as reservoir modelling and history matching. To validate the proposed method, numerical tests are performed on both synthetic and field post-stack seismic data.

In this paper, we consider the problem of adjusting the exploration rate when using value-of-information-based exploration. We do this by converting the value-of-information optimization into a problem of finding equilibria of a flow for a changing exploration rate. We then develop an efficient path-following scheme for converging to these equilibria and hence uncovering optimal action-selection policies. Under this scheme, the exploration rate is automatically adapted according to the agent's experiences. Global convergence is theoretically assured. We first evaluate our exploration-rate adaptation on the Nintendo GameBoy games Centipede and Millipede. We demonstrate aspects of the search process, like that it yields a hierarchy of state abstractions. We also show that our approach returns better policies in fewer episodes than conventional search strategies relying on heuristic, annealing-based exploration-rate adjustments. We then illustrate that these trends hold for deep, value-of-information-based agents that learn to play ten simple games and over forty more complicated games for the Nintendo GameBoy system. Performance either near or well above the level of human play is observed.

In inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), a learning agent infers a reward function encoding the underlying task using demonstrations from experts. However, many existing IRL techniques make the often unrealistic assumption that the agent has access to full information about the environment. We remove this assumption by developing an algorithm for IRL in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We address two limitations of existing IRL techniques. First, they require an excessive amount of data due to the information asymmetry between the expert and the learner. Second, most of these IRL techniques require solving the computationally intractable forward problem -- computing an optimal policy given a reward function -- in POMDPs. The developed algorithm reduces the information asymmetry while increasing the data efficiency by incorporating task specifications expressed in temporal logic into IRL. Such specifications may be interpreted as side information available to the learner a priori in addition to the demonstrations. Further, the algorithm avoids a common source of algorithmic complexity by building on causal entropy as the measure of the likelihood of the demonstrations as opposed to entropy. Nevertheless, the resulting problem is nonconvex due to the so-called forward problem. We solve the intrinsic nonconvexity of the forward problem in a scalable manner through a sequential linear programming scheme that guarantees to converge to a locally optimal policy. In a series of examples, including experiments in a high-fidelity Unity simulator, we demonstrate that even with a limited amount of data and POMDPs with tens of thousands of states, our algorithm learns reward functions and policies that satisfy the task while inducing similar behavior to the expert by leveraging the provided side information.

Most Graph Neural Networks follow the message-passing paradigm, assuming the observed structure depicts the ground-truth node relationships. However, this fundamental assumption cannot always be satisfied, as real-world graphs are always incomplete, noisy, or redundant. How to reveal the inherent graph structure in a unified way remains under-explored. We proposed PRI-GSL, a Graph Structure Learning framework guided by the Principle of Relevant Information, providing a simple and unified framework for identifying the self-organization and revealing the hidden structure. PRI-GSL learns a structure that contains the most relevant yet least redundant information quantified by von Neumann entropy and Quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence. PRI-GSL incorporates the evolution of quantum continuous walk with graph wavelets to encode node structural roles, showing in which way the nodes interplay and self-organize with the graph structure. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior effectiveness and robustness of PRI-GSL.

As various city agencies and mobility operators navigate toward innovative mobility solutions, there is a need for strategic flexibility in well-timed investment decisions in the design and timing of mobility service regions, i.e. cast as "real options" (RO). This problem becomes increasingly challenging with multiple interacting RO in such investments. We propose a scalable machine learning based RO framework for multi-period sequential service region design & timing problem for mobility-on-demand services, framed as a Markov decision process with non-stationary stochastic variables. A value function approximation policy from literature uses multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation to get a policy value for a set of interdependent investment decisions as deferral options (CR policy). The goal is to determine the optimal selection and timing of a set of zones to include in a service region. However, prior work required explicit enumeration of all possible sequences of investments. To address the combinatorial complexity of such enumeration, we propose a new variant "deep" RO policy using an efficient recurrent neural network (RNN) based ML method (CR-RNN policy) to sample sequences to forego the need for enumeration, making network design & timing policy tractable for large scale implementation. Experiments on multiple service region scenarios in New York City (NYC) shows the proposed policy substantially reduces the overall computational cost (time reduction for RO evaluation of > 90% of total investment sequences is achieved), with zero to near-zero gap compared to the benchmark. A case study of sequential service region design for expansion of MoD services in Brooklyn, NYC show that using the CR-RNN policy to determine optimal RO investment strategy yields a similar performance (0.5% within CR policy value) with significantly reduced computation time (about 5.4 times faster).

Abstract-- In replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy resources for carbon neutrality, the unbalanced resource production of intermittent wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is a critical issue for peer-to-peer (P2P) power trading. To address this issue, a reinforcement learning (RL) technique is introduced in this paper. For RL, a graph convolutional network (GCN) and a bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network are jointly applied to P2P power trading between nanogrid clusters, based on cooperative game theory. The flexible and reliable DC nanogrid is suitable for integrating renewable energy for a distribution system. Each local nanogrid cluster takes the position of prosumer, focusing on power production and consumption simultaneously. For the power management of nanogrid cluster, multi-objective optimization is applied to each local nanogrid cluster with the Internet of Things (IoT) technology. Charging/discharging of an electric vehicle (EV) is executed considering the intermittent characteristics of wind and PV power production. RL algorithms, such as GCN-convolutional neural network (CNN) layers for deep Q-learning network (DQN), GCN-LSTM layers for deep recurrent Q-learning network (DRQN), GCN-Bi-LSTM layers for DRQN, and GCN-Bi-LSTM layers for proximal policy optimization (PPO), are used for simulations. Power management of nanogrid clusters with P2P power trading is simulated on a distribution test feeder in real time, and the proposed GCN-Bi-LSTM-PPO technique achieving the lowest electricity cost among the RL algorithms used for comparison reduces the electricity cost by 36.7%, averaging over nanogrid clusters. Keywords: Deep reinforcement learning, P2P power trading, Nanogrid, Power management, Renewable energy I.INTRODUCTION The widespread use of distributed energy resources (DERs) has significantly altered how energy is generated, transported, and used along the energy pipeline. A more decentralized and open electrical network is made possible with increased number of prosumers--individuals who produce and consume energy simultaneously. As a result of this context, new opportunities and difficulties for power systems have emerged. Peer-to-peer (P2P) power trading is a novel paradigm of distribution systems with a utility grid (UT) related to carbon neutrality and renewable energy generation [1]. P2P power trading has become a viable alternative for prosumers looking to actively participate in the energy market. Moreover, P2P trading gives end users more flexibility, increases possibilities to use clean energy, and aids in the transition to a low-carbon energy system. In addition to this, the other participants in the power market can also profit by lowering the peak electricity demand, lowering operating and maintenance expenses, and enhancing the dependability of the electrical system.

Despite great recent advances achieved by deep neural networks (DNNs), they are often vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Intensive research efforts have been made to improve the robustness of DNNs; however, most empirical defenses can be adaptively attacked again, and the theoretically certified robustness is limited, especially on large-scale datasets. One potential root cause of such vulnerabilities for DNNs is that although they have demonstrated powerful expressiveness, they lack the reasoning ability to make robust and reliable predictions. In this paper, we aim to integrate domain knowledge to enable robust learning with the reasoning paradigm. In particular, we propose a certifiably robust learning with reasoning pipeline (CARE), which consists of a learning component and a reasoning component. Concretely, we use a set of standard DNNs to serve as the learning component to make semantic predictions, and we leverage the probabilistic graphical models, such as Markov logic networks (MLN), to serve as the reasoning component to enable knowledge/logic reasoning. However, it is known that the exact inference of MLN (reasoning) is #P-complete, which limits the scalability of the pipeline. To this end, we propose to approximate the MLN inference via variational inference based on an efficient expectation maximization algorithm. In particular, we leverage graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to encode the posterior distribution during variational inference and update the parameters of GCNs (E-step) and the weights of knowledge rules in MLN (M-step) iteratively. We conduct extensive experiments on different datasets and show that CARE achieves significantly higher certified robustness compared with the state-of-the-art baselines. We additionally conducted different ablation studies to demonstrate the empirical robustness of CARE and the effectiveness of different knowledge integration.

Objective: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated promise in automated cardiac magnetic resonance image segmentation. However, when using CNNs in a large real-world dataset, it is important to quantify segmentation uncertainty and identify segmentations which could be problematic. In this work, we performed a systematic study of Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for estimating uncertainty in segmentation neural networks. Methods: We evaluated Bayes by Backprop, Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, and Stochastic Segmentation Networks in terms of segmentation accuracy, probability calibration, uncertainty on out-of-distribution images, and segmentation quality control. Results: We observed that Deep Ensembles outperformed the other methods except for images with heavy noise and blurring distortions. We showed that Bayes by Backprop is more robust to noise distortions while Stochastic Segmentation Networks are more resistant to blurring distortions. For segmentation quality control, we showed that segmentation uncertainty is correlated with segmentation accuracy for all the methods. With the incorporation of uncertainty estimates, we were able to reduce the percentage of poor segmentation to 5% by flagging 31--48% of the most uncertain segmentations for manual review, substantially lower than random review without using neural network uncertainty (reviewing 75--78% of all images). Conclusion: This work provides a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty estimation methods and showed that Deep Ensembles outperformed other methods in most cases. Significance: Neural network uncertainty measures can help identify potentially inaccurate segmentations and alert users for manual review.

The traditional statistical inference is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not affect the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems however, the future values of the quantity to be estimated depend on the estimate of its current value. This type of estimation problems has been formulated as the dynamic inference problem. In this work, we formulate the Bayesian learning problem for dynamic inference, where the unknown quantity-generation model is assumed to be randomly drawn according to a random model parameter. We derive the optimal Bayesian learning rules, both offline and online, to minimize the inference loss. Moreover, learning for dynamic inference can serve as a meta problem, such that all familiar machine learning problems, including supervised learning, imitation learning and reinforcement learning, can be cast as its special cases or variants. Gaining a good understanding of this unifying meta problem thus sheds light on a broad spectrum of machine learning problems as well.