Animal navigation research posits that organisms build and maintain internal spatial representations, or maps, of their environment. We ask if machines -- specifically, artificial intelligence (AI) navigation agents -- also build implicit (or 'mental') maps. A positive answer to this question would (a) explain the surprising phenomenon in recent literature of ostensibly map-free neural-networks achieving strong performance, and (b) strengthen the evidence of mapping as a fundamental mechanism for navigation by intelligent embodied agents, whether they be biological or artificial. Unlike animal navigation, we can judiciously design the agent's perceptual system and control the learning paradigm to nullify alternative navigation mechanisms. Specifically, we train 'blind' agents -- with sensing limited to only egomotion and no other sensing of any kind -- to perform PointGoal navigation ('go to $\Delta$ x, $\Delta$ y') via reinforcement learning. Our agents are composed of navigation-agnostic components (fully-connected and recurrent neural networks), and our experimental setup provides no inductive bias towards mapping. Despite these harsh conditions, we find that blind agents are (1) surprisingly effective navigators in new environments (~95% success); (2) they utilize memory over long horizons (remembering ~1,000 steps of past experience in an episode); (3) this memory enables them to exhibit intelligent behavior (following walls, detecting collisions, taking shortcuts); (4) there is emergence of maps and collision detection neurons in the representations of the environment built by a blind agent as it navigates; and (5) the emergent maps are selective and task dependent (e.g. the agent 'forgets' exploratory detours). Overall, this paper presents no new techniques for the AI audience, but a surprising finding, an insight, and an explanation.

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally embedded in a Bayesian approach. We present a novel technique for evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using a multi-armed bandit framework in combination with a Bayesian anytime $m$-top exploration algorithm. $m$-top exploration allows the algorithm to learn $m$ policies for which it expects the highest utility, enabling experts to inspect this small set of alternative strategies, along with their quantified uncertainty. The anytime component provides policy advisors with flexibility regarding the computation time and the desired confidence, which is important as it is difficult to make this trade-off beforehand. We consider the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using the individual-based model STRIDE, where we learn a set of vaccination policies that minimize the number of infections and hospitalisations. Through experiments we show that our method can efficiently identify the $m$-top policies, which is validated in a scenario where the ground truth is available. Finally, we explore how vaccination policies can best be organised under different contact reduction schemes. Through these experiments, we show that the top policies follow a clear trend regarding the prioritised age groups and assigned vaccine type, which provides insights for future vaccination campaigns.

There are many frameworks for deep generative modeling, each often presented with their own specific training algorithms and inference methods. Here, we demonstrate the connections between existing deep generative models and the recently introduced GFlowNet framework, a probabilistic inference machine which treats sampling as a decision-making process. This analysis sheds light on their overlapping traits and provides a unifying viewpoint through the lens of learning with Markovian trajectories. Our framework provides a means for unifying training and inference algorithms, and provides a route to shine a unifying light over many generative models. Beyond this, we provide a practical and experimentally verified recipe for improving generative modeling with insights from the GFlowNet perspective.

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has witnessed significant progress with the development of value function factorization methods. It allows optimizing a joint action-value function through the maximization of factorized per-agent utilities due to monotonicity. In this paper, we show that in partially observable MARL problems, an agent's ordering over its own actions could impose concurrent constraints (across different states) on the representable function class, causing significant estimation error during training. We tackle this limitation and propose PAC, a new framework leveraging Assistive information generated from Counterfactual Predictions of optimal joint action selection, which enable explicit assistance to value function factorization through a novel counterfactual loss. A variational inference-based information encoding method is developed to collect and encode the counterfactual predictions from an estimated baseline. To enable decentralized execution, we also derive factorized per-agent policies inspired by a maximum-entropy MARL framework. We evaluate the proposed PAC on multi-agent predator-prey and a set of StarCraft II micromanagement tasks. Empirical results demonstrate improved results of PAC over state-of-the-art value-based and policy-based multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms on all benchmarks.

Handling trust is one of the core requirements for facilitating effective interaction between the human and the AI agent. Thus, any decision-making framework designed to work with humans must possess the ability to estimate and leverage human trust. In this paper, we propose a mental model based theory of trust that not only can be used to infer trust, thus providing an alternative to psychological or behavioral trust inference methods, but also can be used as a foundation for any trust-aware decision-making frameworks. First, we introduce what trust means according to our theory and then use the theory to define trust evolution, human reliance and decision making, and a formalization of the appropriate level of trust in the agent. Using human subject studies, we compare our theory against one of the most common trust scales (Muir scale) to evaluate 1) whether the observations from the human studies match our proposed theory and 2) what aspects of trust are more aligned with our proposed theory.

We developed an inherently interpretable multilevel Bayesian framework for representing variation in regression coefficients that mimics the piecewise linearity of ReLU-activated deep neural networks. We used the framework to formulate a survival model for using medical claims to predict hospital readmission and death that focuses on discharge placement, adjusting for confounding in estimating causal local average treatment effects. We trained the model on a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2008 and 2011, based on their 2009--2011 inpatient episodes, and then tested the model on 2012 episodes. The model scored an AUROC of approximately 0.76 on predicting all-cause readmissions -- defined using official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) methodology -- or death within 30-days of discharge, being competitive against XGBoost and a Bayesian deep neural network, demonstrating that one need-not sacrifice interpretability for accuracy. Crucially, as a regression model, we provide what blackboxes cannot -- the exact gold-standard global interpretation of the model, identifying relative risk factors and quantifying the effect of discharge placement. We also show that the posthoc explainer SHAP fails to provide accurate explanations.

We study reinforcement learning with linear function approximation where the transition probability and reward functions are linear with respect to a feature mapping $\boldsymbol{\phi}(s,a)$. Specifically, we consider the episodic inhomogeneous linear Markov Decision Process (MDP), and propose a novel computation-efficient algorithm, LSVI-UCB$^+$, which achieves an $\widetilde{O}(Hd\sqrt{T})$ regret bound where $H$ is the episode length, $d$ is the feature dimension, and $T$ is the number of steps. LSVI-UCB$^+$ builds on weighted ridge regression and upper confidence value iteration with a Bernstein-type exploration bonus. Our statistical results are obtained with novel analytical tools, including a new Bernstein self-normalized bound with conservatism on elliptical potentials, and refined analysis of the correction term. This is a minimax optimal algorithm for linear MDPs up to logarithmic factors, which closes the $\sqrt{Hd}$ gap between the upper bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{H^3d^3T})$ in (Jin et al., 2020) and lower bound of $\Omega(Hd\sqrt{T})$ for linear MDPs.

The last decade witnessed an ever-increasing stream of successes in Machine Learning (ML). These successes offer clear evidence that ML is bound to become pervasive in a wide range of practical uses, including many that directly affect humans. Unfortunately, the operation of the most successful ML models is incomprehensible for human decision makers. As a result, the use of ML models, especially in high-risk and safety-critical settings is not without concern. In recent years, there have been efforts on devising approaches for explaining ML models. Most of these efforts have focused on so-called model-agnostic approaches. However, all model-agnostic and related approaches offer no guarantees of rigor, hence being referred to as non-formal. For example, such non-formal explanations can be consistent with different predictions, which renders them useless in practice. This paper overviews the ongoing research efforts on computing rigorous model-based explanations of ML models; these being referred to as formal explanations. These efforts encompass a variety of topics, that include the actual definitions of explanations, the characterization of the complexity of computing explanations, the currently best logical encodings for reasoning about different ML models, and also how to make explanations interpretable for human decision makers, among others.

Typical representations for arbitrary-oriented object detection tasks include oriented bounding box (OBB), quadrilateral bounding box (QBB), and point set (PointSet). Each representation encounters problems that correspond to its characteristics, such as the boundary discontinuity, square-like problem, representation ambiguity, and isolated points, which lead to inaccurate detection. Although many effective strategies have been proposed for various representations, there is still no unified solution. Current detection methods based on Gaussian modeling have demonstrated the possibility of breaking this dilemma; however, they remain limited to OBB. To go further, in this paper, we propose a unified Gaussian representation called G-Rep to construct Gaussian distributions for OBB, QBB, and PointSet, which achieves a unified solution to various representations and problems. Specifically, PointSet or QBB-based object representations are converted into Gaussian distributions, and their parameters are optimized using the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm. Then, three optional Gaussian metrics are explored to optimize the regression loss of the detector because of their excellent parameter optimization mechanisms. Furthermore, we also use Gaussian metrics for sampling to align label assignment and regression loss. Experimental results on several public available datasets, such as DOTA, HRSC2016, UCAS-AOD, and ICDAR2015, show the excellent performance of the proposed method for arbitrary-oriented object detection.