In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Development of autonomous cyber system defense strategies and action recommendations in the real-world is challenging, and includes characterizing system state uncertainties and attack-defense dynamics. We propose a data-driven deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework to learn proactive, context-aware, defense countermeasures that dynamically adapt to evolving adversarial behaviors while minimizing loss of cyber system operations. A dynamic defense optimization problem is formulated with multiple protective postures against different types of adversaries with varying levels of skill and persistence. A custom simulation environment was developed and experiments were devised to systematically evaluate the performance of four model-free DRL algorithms against realistic, multi-stage attack sequences. Our results suggest the efficacy of DRL algorithms for proactive cyber defense under multi-stage attack profiles and system uncertainties.

Language models trained on large text corpora encode rich distributional information about real-world environments and action sequences. This information plays a crucial role in current approaches to language processing tasks like question answering and instruction generation. We describe how to leverage language models for *non-linguistic* perception and control tasks. Our approach casts labeling and decision-making as inference in probabilistic graphical models in which language models parameterize prior distributions over labels, decisions and parameters, making it possible to integrate uncertain observations and incomplete background knowledge in a principled way. Applied to semantic segmentation, household navigation, and activity recognition tasks, this approach improves predictions on rare, out-of-distribution, and structurally novel inputs.

Machine learning is a rapidly growing field that is revolutionizing many industries, including healthcare, finance, and technology. With its ability to analyze large amounts of data and make predictions and decisions, machine learning is an essential skill for anyone interested in a career in data science or artificial intelligence. If you're looking to learn more about machine learning, you're in luck! There are many high-quality courses available online, offered by some of the top universities in the world. In this article, we'll introduce you to 10 free machine learning courses from top universities.

Despite the great interest in the bandit problem, designing efficient algorithms for complex models remains challenging, as there is typically no analytical way to quantify uncertainty. In this paper, we propose Multiplier Bootstrap-based Exploration (MBE), a novel exploration strategy that is applicable to any reward model amenable to weighted loss minimization. We prove both instance-dependent and instance-independent rate-optimal regret bounds for MBE in sub-Gaussian multi-armed bandits. With extensive simulation and real data experiments, we show the generality and adaptivity of MBE.

Modern deep learning systems are increasingly deployed in situations such as personalization and federated learning where it is necessary to support i) learning on small amounts of data, and ii) communication efficient distributed training protocols. In this work, we develop FiLM Transfer (FiT) which fulfills these requirements in the image classification setting by combining ideas from transfer learning (fixed pretrained backbones and fine-tuned FiLM adapter layers) and meta-learning (automatically configured Naive Bayes classifiers and episodic training) to yield parameter efficient models with superior classification accuracy at low-shot. The resulting parameter efficiency is key for enabling few-shot learning, inexpensive model updates for personalization, and communication efficient federated learning. We experiment with FiT on a wide range of downstream datasets and show that it achieves better classification accuracy than the leading Big Transfer (BiT) algorithm at low-shot and achieves state-of-the art accuracy on the challenging VTAB-1k benchmark, with fewer than 1% of the updateable parameters. Finally, we demonstrate the parameter efficiency and superior accuracy of FiT in distributed low-shot applications including model personalization and federated learning where model update size is an important performance metric.

When we compare the influences of two causes on an outcome, if the conclusion from every group is against that from the conflation, we think there is Simpson's Paradox. The Existing Causal Inference Theory (ECIT) can make the overall conclusion consistent with the grouping conclusion by removing the confounder's influence to eliminate the paradox. The ECIT uses relative risk difference Pd = max(0, (R - 1)/R) (R denotes the risk ratio) as the probability of causation. In contrast, Philosopher Fitelson uses confirmation measure D (posterior probability minus prior probability) to measure the strength of causation. Fitelson concludes that from the perspective of Bayesian confirmation, we should directly accept the overall conclusion without considering the paradox. The author proposed a Bayesian confirmation measure b* similar to Pd before. To overcome the contradiction between the ECIT and Bayesian confirmation, the author uses the semantic information method with the minimum cross-entropy criterion to deduce causal confirmation measure Cc = (R -1)/max(R, 1). Cc is like Pd but has normalizing property (between -1 and 1) and cause symmetry. It especially fits cases where a cause restrains an outcome, such as the COVID-19 vaccine controlling the infection. Some examples (about kidney stone treatments and COVID-19) reveal that Pd and Cc are more reasonable than D; Cc is more useful than Pd.

In this work, we provide a literature review of active learning (AL) for its applications in natural language processing (NLP). In addition to a fine-grained categorization of query strategies, we also investigate several other important aspects of applying AL to NLP problems. These include AL for structured prediction tasks, annotation cost, model learning (especially Figure 1: Counts of AL (left) and "neural" (right) papers with deep neural models), and starting in the ACL Anthology over the past twenty years.

This paper studies the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning (RL) in the challenging \emph{partially observable} setting. While it is well-established that learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) requires exponentially many samples in the worst case, a surge of recent work shows that polynomial sample complexities are achievable under the \emph{revealing condition} -- A natural condition that requires the observables to reveal some information about the unobserved latent states. However, the fundamental limits for learning in revealing POMDPs are much less understood, with existing lower bounds being rather preliminary and having substantial gaps from the current best upper bounds. We establish strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs. Our lower bounds scale polynomially in all relevant problem parameters in a multiplicative fashion, and achieve significantly smaller gaps against the current best upper bounds, providing a solid starting point for future studies. In particular, for \emph{multi-step} revealing POMDPs, we show that (1) the latent state-space dependence is at least $\Omega(S^{1.5})$ in the PAC sample complexity, which is notably harder than the $\widetilde{\Theta}(S)$ scaling for fully-observable MDPs; (2) Any polynomial sublinear regret is at least $\Omega(T^{2/3})$, suggesting its fundamental difference from the \emph{single-step} case where $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret is achievable. Technically, our hard instance construction adapts techniques in \emph{distribution testing}, which is new to the RL literature and may be of independent interest.

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the discounted cumulative reward following a given target policy with an offline dataset collected from another (possibly unknown) behavior policy. OPE is important in situations where it is impractical or too costly to directly evaluate the target policy via online experimentation, including robotics (Quillen et al., 2018), precision medicine (Murphy, 2003; Kosorok and Laber, 2019; Tsiatis et al., 2019), economics, quantitative social science (Abadie and Cattaneo, 2018), recommendation systems (Li et al., 2010; Kiyohara et al., 2022), etc. Despite a large body of literature on OPE (see Section 2 for detailed discussions), many of them rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounders (NUC), excluding the existence of unobserved variables that could potentially confound either the action-reward or action-next-state pair. This assumption, however, can be violated in some real-world applications such as healthcare and technological industries. Our paper is partly motivated by the need to evaluate the long-term treatment effects of certain app download ads from a short-video platform.