Learning Graphical Models
Joint Probability Trees
Nyga, Daniel, Picklum, Mareike, Schierenbeck, Tom, Beetz, Michael
Joint probability distributions offer a wide range of highpotential applications in engineering, science, and technology (Chater et al., 2006; Griffiths et al., 2008; Knill & Pouget, 2004). Besides families of continuous distributions, introducing strong independence assumptions that must be probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), such as Bayesian known prior to learning and may turn out to be too great networks and Markov random fields (Koller & Friedman, simplifications of a model to be of practical use (Besag, 2009), are the de-facto standard in probabilistic knowledge 1975; Jain, 2012). As a simple example, consider a probability representation. They provide graph-based languages to space X, Y, C of two numeric variables, X and Y, model dependencies and independencies of variables, and and one symbolic variable C, dom(C) = {Red, Blue} as local joint or conditional distributions that quantify the statistical illustrated in Figures 1a and 1b. Let the symbolic values Red dependencies. However, the practical applicability of and Blue demaracate two clusters that are approximately PGMs suffers from the representational and computational normally distributed.
Improved Regret Bounds for Linear Adversarial MDPs via Linear Optimization
Kong, Fang, Zhang, Xiangcheng, Wang, Baoxiang, Li, Shuai
Reinforcement learning (RL) describes the interaction between a learning agent and an unknown environment, where the agent aims to maximize the cumulative reward through trial and error Sutton and Barto [2018]. It has achieved great success in many real applications, such as games [Mnih et al., 2013; Silver et al., 2016], robotics [Kober et al., 2013; Lillicrap et al., 2015], autonomous driving [Kiran et al., 2021] and recommendation systems [Afsar et al., 2022; Lin et al., 2021]. The interaction in RL is commonly portrayed by Markov decision processes (MDP). Most of the works study the stochastic setting, where the reward is sampled from a fixed distribution [Azar et al., 2017; Jin et al., 2018; Simchowitz and Jamieson, 2019; Yang et al., 2021]. RL in real applications is in general more challenging than the stochastic setting, as the environment could be nonstationary and the reward function could be adaptive towards the agent's policy. For example, a scheduling algorithm will be deployed to self-interested parties, and recommendation algorithms will face strategic users. To design robust algorithms that work under non-stationary environments, a line of works focuses on the adversarial setting, where the reward function could be arbitrarily chosen by an adversary [Yu et al., 2009; Rosenberg and Mansour, 2019; Jin et al., 2020a; Chen et al., 2021; Luo et al., 2021a].
A Review of the Role of Causality in Developing Trustworthy AI Systems
Ganguly, Niloy, Fazlija, Dren, Badar, Maryam, Fisichella, Marco, Sikdar, Sandipan, Schrader, Johanna, Wallat, Jonas, Rudra, Koustav, Koubarakis, Manolis, Patro, Gourab K., Amri, Wadhah Zai El, Nejdl, Wolfgang
As a result, they are often brittle and unable to adapt to new domains, can treat individuals or subgroups unfairly, and have limited ability to explain their actions or recommendations [197, 235] reducing the trust of human users [118]. Following this, a new area of research, trustworthy AI, has recently received much attention from several policymakers and other regulatory organizations. The resulting guidelines (e.g., [184, 186, 187]), introduced to increase trust in AI systems, make developing trustworthy AI not only a technical (research) and social endeavor but also an organizational and (legal) obligational requirement. In this paper, we set out to demonstrate, through an extensive survey, that causal modeling and reasoning is an emerging and very useful tool for enabling current AI systems to become trustworthy. Causality is the science of reasoning about causes and effects. Cause-and-effect relationships are central to how we make sense of the world around us, how we act upon it, and how we respond to changes in our environment. In AI, research in causality was pioneered by the Turing award winner Judea Pearl long back in his 1995 seminal paper [194]. Since then, many researchers have contributed to the development of a solid mathematical basis for causality; see, for example, the books [79, 196, 201], the survey [90] and seminal papers [197, 235].
The Impact of Twitter Sentiments on Stock Market Trends
Mokhtari, Melvin, Seraj, Ali, Saeedi, Niloufar, Karshenas, Adel
The Web is a vast virtual space where people can share their opinions, impacting all aspects of life and having implications for marketing and communication. The most up-to-date and comprehensive information can be found on social media because of how widespread and straightforward it is to post a message. Proportionately, they are regarded as a valuable resource for making precise market predictions. In particular, Twitter has developed into a potent tool for understanding user sentiment. This article examines how well tweets can influence stock symbol trends. We analyze the volume, sentiment, and mentions of the top five stock symbols in the S&P 500 index on Twitter over three months. Long Short-Term Memory, Bernoulli Na\"ive Bayes, and Random Forest were the three algorithms implemented in this process. Our study revealed a significant correlation between stock prices and Twitter sentiment.
Focus-Driven Contrastive Learniang for Medical Question Summarization
Zhang, Ming, Dou, Shuai, Wang, Ziyang, Wu, Yunfang
Automatic medical question summarization can significantly help the system to understand consumer health questions and retrieve correct answers. The Seq2Seq model based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied in this task, which faces two general problems: the model can not capture well question focus and and the traditional MLE strategy lacks the ability to understand sentence-level semantics. To alleviate these problems, we propose a novel question focus-driven contrastive learning framework (QFCL). Specially, we propose an easy and effective approach to generate hard negative samples based on the question focus, and exploit contrastive learning at both encoder and decoder to obtain better sentence level representations. On three medical benchmark datasets, our proposed model achieves new state-of-the-art results, and obtains a performance gain of 5.33, 12.85 and 3.81 points over the baseline BART model on three datasets respectively. Further human judgement and detailed analysis prove that our QFCL model learns better sentence representations with the ability to distinguish different sentence meanings, and generates high-quality summaries by capturing question focus.
A Survey on Active Simultaneous Localization and Mapping: State of the Art and New Frontiers
Placed, Julio A., Strader, Jared, Carrillo, Henry, Atanasov, Nikolay, Indelman, Vadim, Carlone, Luca, Castellanos, José A.
Active Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) is the problem of planning and controlling the motion of a robot to build the most accurate and complete model of the surrounding environment. Since the first foundational work in active perception appeared, more than three decades ago, this field has received increasing attention across different scientific communities. This has brought about many different approaches and formulations, and makes a review of the current trends necessary and extremely valuable for both new and experienced researchers. In this work, we survey the state-of-the-art in active SLAM and take an in-depth look at the open challenges that still require attention to meet the needs of modern applications. After providing a historical perspective, we present a unified problem formulation and review the well-established modular solution scheme, which decouples the problem into three stages that identify, select, and execute potential navigation actions. We then analyze alternative approaches, including belief-space planning and deep reinforcement learning techniques, and review related work on multi-robot coordination. The manuscript concludes with a discussion of new research directions, addressing reproducible research, active spatial perception, and practical applications, among other topics.
Probabilistic Estimation of Instantaneous Frequencies of Chirp Signals
Zhao, Zheng, Särkkä, Simo, Sjölund, Jens, Schön, Thomas B.
We present a continuous-time probabilistic approach for estimating the chirp signal and its instantaneous frequency function when the true forms of these functions are not accessible. Our model represents these functions by non-linearly cascaded Gaussian processes represented as non-linear stochastic differential equations. The posterior distribution of the functions is then estimated with stochastic filters and smoothers. We compute a (posterior) Cram\'er--Rao lower bound for the Gaussian process model, and derive a theoretical upper bound for the estimation error in the mean squared sense. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms a number of state-of-the-art methods on a synthetic data. We also show that the method works out-of-the-box for two real-world datasets.
An Order-Invariant and Interpretable Hierarchical Dilated Convolution Neural Network for Chemical Fault Detection and Diagnosis
Li, Mengxuan, Peng, Peng, Wang, Min, Wang, Hongwei
Fault detection and diagnosis is significant for reducing maintenance costs and improving health and safety in chemical processes. Convolution neural network (CNN) is a popular deep learning algorithm with many successful applications in chemical fault detection and diagnosis tasks. However, convolution layers in CNN are very sensitive to the order of features, which can lead to instability in the processing of tabular data. Optimal order of features result in better performance of CNN models but it is expensive to seek such optimal order. In addition, because of the encapsulation mechanism of feature extraction, most CNN models are opaque and have poor interpretability, thus failing to identify root-cause features without human supervision. These difficulties inevitably limit the performance and credibility of CNN methods. In this paper, we propose an order-invariant and interpretable hierarchical dilated convolution neural network (HDLCNN), which is composed by feature clustering, dilated convolution and the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. The novelty of HDLCNN lies in its capability of processing tabular data with features of arbitrary order without seeking the optimal order, due to the ability to agglomerate correlated features of feature clustering and the large receptive field of dilated convolution. Then, the proposed method provides interpretability by including the SHAP values to quantify feature contribution. Therefore, the root-cause features can be identified as the features with the highest contribution. Computational experiments are conducted on the Tennessee Eastman chemical process benchmark dataset. Compared with the other methods, the proposed HDLCNN-SHAP method achieves better performance on processing tabular data with features of arbitrary order, detecting faults, and identifying the root-cause features.
COACH: Cooperative Robot Teaching
Yu, Cunjun, Xu, Yiqing, Li, Linfeng, Hsu, David
Knowledge and skills can transfer from human teachers to human students. However, such direct transfer is often not scalable for physical tasks, as they require one-to-one interaction, and human teachers are not available in sufficient numbers. Machine learning enables robots to become experts and play the role of teachers to help in this situation. In this work, we formalize cooperative robot teaching as a Markov game, consisting of four key elements: the target task, the student model, the teacher model, and the interactive teaching-learning process. Under a moderate assumption, the Markov game reduces to a partially observable Markov decision process, with an efficient approximate solution. We illustrate our approach on two cooperative tasks, one in a simulated video game and one with a real robot.
Enhancing SMT-based Weighted Model Integration by Structure Awareness
Spallitta, Giuseppe, Masina, Gabriele, Morettin, Paolo, Passerini, Andrea, Sebastiani, Roberto
The development of efficient exact and approximate algorithms for probabilistic inference is a long-standing goal of artificial intelligence research. Whereas substantial progress has been made in dealing with purely discrete or purely continuous domains, adapting the developed solutions to tackle hybrid domains, characterised by discrete and continuous variables and their relationships, is highly non-trivial. Weighted Model Integration (WMI) recently emerged as a unifying formalism for probabilistic inference in hybrid domains. Despite a considerable amount of recent work, allowing WMI algorithms to scale with the complexity of the hybrid problem is still a challenge. In this paper we highlight some substantial limitations of existing state-of-the-art solutions, and develop an algorithm that combines SMT-based enumeration, an efficient technique in formal verification, with an effective encoding of the problem structure. This allows our algorithm to avoid generating redundant models, resulting in drastic computational savings. Additionally, we show how SMT-based approaches can seamlessly deal with different integration techniques, both exact and approximate, significantly expanding the set of problems that can be tackled by WMI technology. An extensive experimental evaluation on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirms the substantial advantage of the proposed solution over existing alternatives. The application potential of this technology is further showcased on a prototypical task aimed at verifying the fairness of probabilistic programs.