Knowledge tracing (KT) serves as a primary part of intelligent education systems. Most current KTs either rely on expert judgments or only exploit a single network structure, which affects the full expression of learning features. To adequately mine features of students' learning process, Deep Knowledge Tracing Based on Spatial and Temporal Deep Representation Learning for Learning Performance Prediction (DKT-STDRL) is proposed in this paper. DKT-STDRL extracts spatial features from students' learning history sequence, and then further extracts temporal features to extract deeper hidden information. Specifically, firstly, the DKT-STDRL model uses CNN to extract the spatial feature information of students' exercise sequences. Then, the spatial features are connected with the original students' exercise features as joint learning features. Then, the joint features are input into the BiLSTM part. Finally, the BiLSTM part extracts the temporal features from the joint learning features to obtain the prediction information of whether the students answer correctly at the next time step. Experiments on the public education datasets ASSISTment2009, ASSISTment2015, Synthetic-5, ASSISTchall, and Statics2011 prove that DKT-STDRL can achieve better prediction effects than DKT and CKT.

An evident challenge ahead for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in the nanometer regime is the investigation and development of methods that can reduce the design complexity ensuing from growing process variations and curtail the turnaround time of chip manufacturing. Conventional methodologies employed for such tasks are largely manual; thus, time-consuming and resource-intensive. In contrast, the unique learning strategies of artificial intelligence (AI) provide numerous exciting automated approaches for handling complex and data-intensive tasks in very-large-scale integration (VLSI) design and testing. Employing AI and machine learning (ML) algorithms in VLSI design and manufacturing reduces the time and effort for understanding and processing the data within and across different abstraction levels via automated learning algorithms. It, in turn, improves the IC yield and reduces the manufacturing turnaround time. This paper thoroughly reviews the AI/ML automated approaches introduced in the past towards VLSI design and manufacturing. Moreover, we discuss the scope of AI/ML applications in the future at various abstraction levels to revolutionize the field of VLSI design, aiming for high-speed, highly intelligent, and efficient implementations.

Numerous applications of machine learning involve representing probability distributions over high-dimensional data. We propose autoregressive quantile flows, a flexible class of normalizing flow models trained using a novel objective based on proper scoring rules. Our objective does not require calculating computationally expensive determinants of Jacobians during training and supports new types of neural architectures, such as neural autoregressive flows from which it is easy to sample. We leverage these models in quantile flow regression, an approach that parameterizes predictive conditional distributions with flows, resulting in improved probabilistic predictions on tasks such as time series forecasting and object detection. Our novel objective functions and neural flow parameterizations also yield improvements on popular generation and density estimation tasks, and represent a step beyond maximum likelihood learning of flows. Reasoning about uncertainty via the language of probability is important in many application domains of machine learning, including medicine (Saria, 2018), robotics (Chua et al., 2018; Buckman et al., 2018), and operations research (Van Roy et al., 1997). Especially important is the estimation of predictive uncertainties (e.g., confidence intervals around forecasts) in tasks such as clinical diagnosis (Jiang et al., 2012) or decision support systems (Werling et al., 2015; Kuleshov and Liang, 2015). Normalizing flows (Rezende and Mohamed, 2016; Papamakarios et al., 2019; Kingma et al., 2016) are a popular framework for defining probabilistic models, and can be used for density estimation (Papamakarios et al., 2017), out-of-distribution detection (Nalisnick et al., 2019), content generation (Kingma and Dhariwal, 2018), and more. Flows feature tractable posterior inference and maximum likelihood estimation; however, maximum likelihood estimation of flows requires carefully designing a family of bijective functions that are simultaneously expressive and whose Jacobian has a tractable determinant.

We apply the PAC-Bayes theory to the setting of learning-to-optimize. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first framework to learn optimization algorithms with provable generalization guarantees (PAC-bounds) and explicit trade-off between a high probability of convergence and a high convergence speed. Even in the limit case, where convergence is guaranteed, our learned optimization algorithms provably outperform related algorithms based on a (deterministic) worst-case analysis. Our results rely on PAC-Bayes bounds for general, unbounded loss-functions based on exponential families. By generalizing existing ideas, we reformulate the learning procedure into a one-dimensional minimization problem and study the possibility to find a global minimum, which enables the algorithmic realization of the learning procedure. As a proof-of-concept, we learn hyperparameters of standard optimization algorithms to empirically underline our theory.

Cross-silo federated learning (FL) is a typical FL that enables organizations(e.g., financial or medical entities) to train global models on isolated data. Reasonable incentive is key to encouraging organizations to contribute data. However, existing works on incentivizing cross-silo FL lack consideration of the environmental dynamics (e.g., precision of the trained global model and data owned by uncertain clients during the training processes). Moreover, most of them assume that organizations share private information, which is unrealistic. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel adaptive mechanism for cross-silo FL, towards incentivizing organizations to contribute data to maximize their long-term payoffs in a real dynamic training environment. The mechanism is based on multi-agent reinforcement learning, which learns near-optimal data contribution strategy from the history of potential games without organizations' private information. Experiments demonstrate that our mechanism achieves adaptive incentive and effectively improves the long-term payoffs for organizations.

Imperfect information games (IIG) are games in which each player only partially observes the current game state. We study how to learn $\epsilon$-optimal strategies in a zero-sum IIG through self-play with trajectory feedback. We give a problem-independent lower bound $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H(A_{\mathcal{X}}+B_{\mathcal{Y}})/\epsilon^2)$ on the required number of realizations to learn these strategies with high probability, where $H$ is the length of the game, $A_{\mathcal{X}}$ and $B_{\mathcal{Y}}$ are the total number of actions for the two players. We also propose two Follow the Regularized leader (FTRL) algorithms for this setting: Balanced FTRL which matches this lower bound, but requires the knowledge of the information set structure beforehand to define the regularization; and Adaptive FTRL which needs $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^2(A_{\mathcal{X}}+B_{\mathcal{Y}})/\epsilon^2)$ realizations without this requirement by progressively adapting the regularization to the observations.

This work presents a novel, inference-based approach to the distributed and cooperative flocking control of aerial robot swarms. The proposed method stems from the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) dynamics by limiting the latent set to the robots' feasible action space, thus preventing any unattainable control inputs from being produced and leading to smooth flocking behavior. By modeling the inter-agent relationships using a pairwise energy function, we show that interacting robot swarms constitute a Markov Random Field. Our algorithm builds on the Mean-Field Approximation and incorporates the collective behavioral rules: cohesion, separation, and velocity alignment. We follow a distributed control scheme and show that our method can control a swarm of UAVs to a formation and velocity consensus with real-time collision avoidance. We validate the proposed method with physical UAVs and high-fidelity simulation experiments.

The recent advancements in wireless technology enable connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to gather data via vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication, such as processed LIDAR and camera data from other vehicles. In this work, we design an integrated information sharing and safe multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework for CAVs, to take advantage of the extra information when making decisions to improve traffic efficiency and safety. We first use weight pruned convolutional neural networks (CNN) to process the raw image and point cloud LIDAR data locally at each autonomous vehicle, and share CNN-output data with neighboring CAVs. We then design a safe actor-critic algorithm that utilizes both a vehicle's local observation and the information received via V2V communication to explore an efficient behavior planning policy with safety guarantees. Using the CARLA simulator for experiments, we show that our approach improves the CAV system's efficiency in terms of average velocity and comfort under different CAV ratios and different traffic densities. We also show that our approach avoids the execution of unsafe actions and always maintains a safe distance from other vehicles. We construct an obstacle-at-corner scenario to show that the shared vision can help CAVs to observe obstacles earlier and take action to avoid traffic jams.

In recent years, increasingly complex computational models are being built to describe physical systems which has led to increased use of surrogate models to reduce computational cost. In problems related to Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), models capable of both handling high-dimensional data and quantifying uncertainty are required. In this work, our goal is to propose a conditional deep generative model as a surrogate aimed at such applications and high-dimensional stochastic structural simulations in general. To that end, a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) utilizing convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is employed to obtain reconstructions of spatially ordered structural response quantities for structural elements that are subjected to stochastic loading. Two numerical examples, inspired by potential SHM applications, are utilized to demonstrate the performance of the surrogate. The model is able to achieve high reconstruction accuracy compared to the reference Finite Element (FE) solutions, while at the same time successfully encoding the load uncertainty.

Decision Trees are some of the most popular machine learning models today due to their out-of-the-box performance and interpretability. Often, Decision Trees models are constructed greedily in a top-down fashion via heuristic search criteria, such as Gini impurity or entropy. However, trees constructed in this manner are sensitive to minor fluctuations in training data and are prone to overfitting. In contrast, Bayesian approaches to tree construction formulate the selection process as a posterior inference problem; such approaches are more stable and provide greater theoretical guarantees. However, generating Bayesian Decision Trees usually requires sampling from complex, multimodal posterior distributions. Current Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based approaches for sampling Bayesian Decision Trees are prone to mode collapse and long mixing times, which makes them impractical. In this paper, we propose a new criterion for training Bayesian Decision Trees. Our criterion gives rise to BCART-PCFG, which can efficiently sample decision trees from a posterior distribution across trees given the data and find the maximum a posteriori (MAP) tree. Learning the posterior and training the sampler can be done in time that is polynomial in the dataset size. Once the posterior has been learned, trees can be sampled efficiently (linearly in the number of nodes). At the core of our method is a reduction of sampling the posterior to sampling a derivation from a probabilistic context-free grammar. We find that trees sampled via BCART-PCFG perform comparable to or better than greedily-constructed Decision Trees in classification accuracy on several datasets. Additionally, the trees sampled via BCART-PCFG are significantly smaller -- sometimes by as much as 20x.