We formally verify executable algorithms for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs) in the interactive theorem prover Isabelle/HOL. We build on existing formalizations of probability theory to analyze the expected total reward criterion on infinite-horizon problems. Our developments formalize the Bellman equation and give conditions under which optimal policies exist. Based on this analysis, we verify dynamic programming algorithms to solve tabular MDPs. We evaluate the formally verified implementations experimentally on standard problems and show they are practical. Furthermore, we show that, combined with efficient unverified implementations, our system can compete with and even outperform state-of-the-art systems.

Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are one of the most controversial and complex technological innovations in today's financial system. This study aims to forecast the movements of Bitcoin prices at a high degree of accuracy. To this aim, four different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are applied, namely, the Support Vector Machines (SVM), the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), the Naive Bayes (NB) and the Random Forest (RF) besides the logistic regression (LR) as a benchmark model. In order to test these algorithms, besides existing continuous dataset, discrete dataset was also created and used. For the evaluations of algorithm performances, the F statistic, accuracy statistic, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Root Absolute Error (RAE) metrics were used. The t test was used to compare the performances of the SVM, ANN, NB and RF with the performance of the LR. Empirical findings reveal that, while the RF has the highest forecasting performance in the continuous dataset, the NB has the lowest. On the other hand, while the ANN has the highest and the NB the lowest performance in the discrete dataset. Furthermore, the discrete dataset improves the overall forecasting performance in all algorithms (models) estimated.

Bayesian Causal Forests (BCF) is a causal inference machine learning model based on a highly flexible non-parametric regression and classification tool called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Motivated by data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), which includes data on student achievement in both mathematics and science, we present a multivariate extension of the BCF algorithm. With the help of simulation studies we show that our approach can accurately estimate causal effects for multiple outcomes subject to the same treatment. We also apply our model to Irish data from TIMSS 2019. Our findings reveal the positive effects of having access to a study desk at home (Mathematics ATE 95% CI: [0.20, 11.67]) while also highlighting the negative consequences of students often feeling hungry at school (Mathematics ATE 95% CI: [-11.15, -2.78] , Science ATE 95% CI: [-10.82,-1.72]) or often being absent (Mathematics ATE 95% CI: [-12.47, -1.55]).

Monitoring the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical societal stake that received considerable research efforts. The intensity of the pandemic on a given territory is efficiently measured by the reproduction number, quantifying the rate of growth of daily new infections. Recently, estimates for the time evolution of the reproduction number were produced using an inverse problem formulation with a nonsmooth functional minimization. While it was designed to be robust to the limited quality of the Covid19 data (outliers, missing counts), the procedure lacks the ability to output credibility interval based estimates. This remains a severe limitation for practical use in actual pandemic monitoring by epidemiologists that the present work aims to overcome by use of Monte Carlo sampling. After interpretation of the nonsmooth functional into a Bayesian framework, several sampling schemes are tailored to adjust the nonsmooth nature of the resulting posterior distribution. The originality of the devised algorithms stems from combining a Langevin Monte Carlo sampling scheme with Proximal operators. Performance of the new algorithms in producing relevant credibility intervals for the reproduction number estimates and denoised counts are compared. Assessment is conducted on real daily new infection counts made available by the Johns Hopkins University. The interest of the devised monitoring tools are illustrated on Covid19 data from several different countries.

While quantum machine learning (ML) has been proposed to be one of the most promising applications of quantum computing, how to build quantum ML models that outperform classical ML remains a major open question. Here, we demonstrate a Bayesian algorithm for constructing quantum kernels for support vector machines that adapts quantum gate sequences to data. The algorithm increases the complexity of quantum circuits incrementally by appending quantum gates selected with Bayesian information criterion as circuit selection metric and Bayesian optimization of the parameters of the locally optimal quantum circuits identified. The goal is to build quantum kernels for SVM that can solve classification problems with as little training data as possible. The performance of the resulting quantum models for the classification problems considered here significantly exceeds that of optimized classical models with conventional kernels.

A goal of unsupervised machine learning is to build representations of complex high-dimensional data, with simple relations to their properties. Such disentangled representations make easier to interpret the significant latent factors of variation in the data, as well as to generate new data with desirable features. Methods for disentangling representations often rely on an adversarial scheme, in which representations are tuned to avoid discriminators from being able to reconstruct information about the data properties (labels). Unfortunately adversarial training is generally difficult to implement in practice. Here we propose a simple, effective way of disentangling representations without any need to train adversarial discriminators, and apply our approach to Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM), one of the simplest representation-based generative models. Our approach relies on the introduction of adequate constraints on the weights during training, which allows us to concentrate information about labels on a small subset of latent variables. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated with four examples: the CelebA dataset of facial images, the two-dimensional Ising model, the MNIST dataset of handwritten digits, and the taxonomy of protein families. In addition, we show how our framework allows for analytically computing the cost, in terms of log-likelihood of the data, associated to the disentanglement of their representations.

Considering the relation between neural networks (NN) and TN, the first works focused on the restricted Boltzmann machines (RBM), which are one of the simplest Tensor networks (TN) have been extensively used to classes of NN. It is impossible to efficiently map an represent the states of quantum many-body physical systems RBM onto a TN, as they correspond to string-bond states [1-3]. Matrix product states (MPS) are possibly with an arbitrary nonlocal geometry [28]. This result was the simplest family of TN, and are suitable to capture later refined to show that an RBM may correspond to an the ground state of 1D gapped Hamiltonians [4, 5]. They MPS with an exponentially large bond dimension, and can be contracted in polynomial time to compute physical only short-range RBM can be mapped onto efficiently quantities exactly, and optimized by density matrix computable entangled plaquette states [31]. Similar results renormalization group (DMRG) [6] when used as variational have been obtained that deep Boltzmann machines ansätze. More powerful TN architectures that with proper constraints can be mapped onto TN that cannot be efficiently contracted in general have been are efficiently computable through transfer matrix methods proposed later, notably projected entangled pair states [32].

Normalizing flows are tractable density models that can approximate complicated target distributions, e.g. Boltzmann distributions of physical systems. However, current methods for training flows either suffer from mode-seeking behavior, use samples from the target generated beforehand by expensive MCMC methods, or use stochastic losses that have high variance. To avoid these problems, we augment flows with annealed importance sampling (AIS) and minimize the mass-covering $\alpha$-divergence with $\alpha=2$, which minimizes importance weight variance. Our method, Flow AIS Bootstrap (FAB), uses AIS to generate samples in regions where the flow is a poor approximation of the target, facilitating the discovery of new modes. We apply FAB to multimodal targets and show that we can approximate them very accurately where previous methods fail. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to learn the Boltzmann distribution of the alanine dipeptide molecule using only the unnormalized target density, without access to samples generated via Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations: FAB produces better results than training via maximum likelihood on MD samples while using 100 times fewer target evaluations. After reweighting the samples, we obtain unbiased histograms of dihedral angles that are almost identical to the ground truth.

We consider the problem of quantifying uncertainty over expected cumulative rewards in model-based reinforcement learning. In particular, we focus on characterizing the variance over values induced by a distribution over MDPs. Previous work upper bounds the posterior variance over values by solving a so-called uncertainty Bellman equation, but the over-approximation may result in inefficient exploration. We propose a new uncertainty Bellman equation whose solution converges to the true posterior variance over values and explicitly characterizes the gap in previous work. Moreover, our uncertainty quantification technique is easily integrated into common exploration strategies and scales naturally beyond the tabular setting by using standard deep reinforcement learning architectures. Experiments in difficult exploration tasks, both in tabular and continuous control settings, show that our sharper uncertainty estimates improve sample-efficiency.

We address the problem of sufficient dimension reduction for feature matrices, which arises often in sensor network localization, brain neuroimaging, and electroencephalography analysis. In general, feature matrices have both row- and column-wise interpretations and contain structural information that can be lost with naive vectorization approaches. To address this, we propose a method called principal support matrix machine (PSMM) for the matrix sufficient dimension reduction. The PSMM converts the sufficient dimension reduction problem into a series of classification problems by dividing the response variables into slices. It effectively utilizes the matrix structure by finding hyperplanes with rank-1 normal matrix that optimally separate the sliced responses. Additionally, we extend our approach to the higher-order tensor case. Our numerical analysis demonstrates that the PSMM outperforms existing methods and has strong interpretability in real data applications.