Bayesian optimization (BO) primarily uses Gaussian processes (GP) as the key surrogate model, mostly with a simple stationary and separable kernel function such as the squared-exponential kernel with automatic relevance determination (SE-ARD). However, such simple kernel specifications are deficient in learning functions with complex features, such as being nonstationary, nonseparable, and multimodal. Approximating such functions using a local GP, even in a low-dimensional space, requires a large number of samples, not to mention in a high-dimensional setting. In this paper, we propose to use Bayesian Kernelized Tensor Factorization (BKTF) -- as a new surrogate model -- for BO in a $D$-dimensional Cartesian product space. Our key idea is to approximate the underlying $D$-dimensional solid with a fully Bayesian low-rank tensor CP decomposition, in which we place GP priors on the latent basis functions for each dimension to encode local consistency and smoothness. With this formulation, information from each sample can be shared not only with neighbors but also across dimensions. Although BKTF no longer has an analytical posterior, we can still efficiently approximate the posterior distribution through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and obtain prediction and full uncertainty quantification (UQ). We conduct numerical experiments on both standard BO test functions and machine learning hyperparameter tuning problems, and our results show that BKTF offers a flexible and highly effective approach for characterizing complex functions with UQ, especially in cases where the initial sample size and budget are severely limited.

An assurance case is intended to provide justifiable confidence in the truth of its top claim, which typically concerns safety or security. A natural question is then "how much" confidence does the case provide? We argue that confidence cannot be reduced to a single attribute or measurement. Instead, we suggest it should be based on attributes that draw on three different perspectives: positive, negative, and residual doubts. Positive Perspectives consider the extent to which the evidence and overall argument of the case combine to make a positive statement justifying belief in its claims. We set a high bar for justification, requiring it to be indefeasible. The primary positive measure for this is soundness, which interprets the argument as a logical proof. Confidence in evidence can be expressed probabilistically and we use confirmation measures to ensure that the "weight" of evidence crosses some threshold. In addition, probabilities can be aggregated from evidence through the steps of the argument using probability logics to yield what we call probabilistic valuations for the claims. Negative Perspectives record doubts and challenges to the case, typically expressed as defeaters, and their exploration and resolution. Assurance developers must guard against confirmation bias and should vigorously explore potential defeaters as they develop the case, and should record them and their resolution to avoid rework and to aid reviewers. Residual Doubts: the world is uncertain so not all potential defeaters can be resolved. We explore risks and may deem them acceptable or unavoidable. It is crucial however that these judgments are conscious ones and that they are recorded in the assurance case. This report examines the perspectives in detail and indicates how Clarissa, our prototype toolset for Assurance 2.0, assists in their evaluation.

In retail (e.g., grocery stores, apparel shops, online retailers), inventory managers have to balance short-term risk (no items to sell) with long-term-risk (over ordering leading to product waste). This balancing task is made especially hard due to the lack of information about future customer purchases. In this paper, we study the problem of restocking a grocery store's inventory with perishable items over time, from a distributional point of view. The objective is to maximize sales while minimizing waste, with uncertainty about the actual consumption by costumers. This problem is of a high relevance today, given the growing demand for food and the impact of food waste on the environment, the economy, and purchasing power. We frame inventory restocking as a new reinforcement learning task that exhibits stochastic behavior conditioned on the agent's actions, making the environment partially observable. We make two main contributions. First, we introduce a new reinforcement learning environment, RetaiL, based on real grocery store data and expert knowledge. This environment is highly stochastic, and presents a unique challenge for reinforcement learning practitioners. We show that uncertainty about the future behavior of the environment is not handled well by classical supply chain algorithms, and that distributional approaches are a good way to account for the uncertainty. Second, we introduce GTDQN, a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that learns a generalized Tukey Lambda distribution over the reward space. GTDQN provides a strong baseline for our environment. It outperforms other distributional reinforcement learning approaches in this partially observable setting, in both overall reward and reduction of generated waste.

Smart home environments are designed to provide services that help improve the quality of life for the occupant via a variety of sensors and actuators installed throughout the space. Many automated actions taken by a smart home are governed by the output of an underlying activity recognition system. However, activity recognition systems may not be perfectly accurate and therefore inconsistencies in smart home operations can lead users reliant on smart home predictions to wonder "why did the smart home do that?" In this work, we build on insights from Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques and introduce an explainable activity recognition framework in which we leverage leading XAI methods to generate natural language explanations that explain what about an activity led to the given classification. Within the context of remote caregiver monitoring, we perform a two-step evaluation: (a) utilize ML experts to assess the sensibility of explanations, and (b) recruit non-experts in two user remote caregiver monitoring scenarios, synchronous and asynchronous, to assess the effectiveness of explanations generated via our framework. Our results show that the XAI approach, SHAP, has a 92% success rate in generating sensible explanations. Moreover, in 83% of sampled scenarios users preferred natural language explanations over a simple activity label, underscoring the need for explainable activity recognition systems. Finally, we show that explanations generated by some XAI methods can lead users to lose confidence in the accuracy of the underlying activity recognition model. We make a recommendation regarding which existing XAI method leads to the best performance in the domain of smart home automation, and discuss a range of topics for future work to further improve explainable activity recognition.

Bearings are one of the vital components of rotating machines that are prone to unexpected faults. Therefore, bearing fault diagnosis and condition monitoring is essential for reducing operational costs and downtime in numerous industries. In various production conditions, bearings can be operated under a range of loads and speeds, which causes different vibration patterns associated with each fault type. Normal data is ample as systems usually work in desired conditions. On the other hand, fault data is rare, and in many conditions, there is no data recorded for the fault classes. Accessing fault data is crucial for developing data-driven fault diagnosis tools that can improve both the performance and safety of operations. To this end, a novel algorithm based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGANs) is introduced. Trained on the normal and fault data on any actual fault conditions, this algorithm generates fault data from normal data of target conditions. The proposed method is validated on a real-world bearing dataset, and fault data are generated for different conditions. Several state-of-the-art classifiers and visualization models are implemented to evaluate the quality of the synthesized data. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

In the field of disordered photonics, a common objective is to characterize optically opaque materials for controlling light delivery or performing imaging. Among various complex devices, multi-mode optical fibers stand out as cost-effective and easy-to-handle tools, making them attractive for several tasks. In this context, we leverage the reservoir computing paradigm to recast these fibers into random hardware projectors, transforming an input dataset into a higher dimensional speckled image set. The goal of our study is to demonstrate that using such randomized data for classification by training a single logistic regression layer improves accuracy compared to training on direct raw images. Interestingly, we found that the classification accuracy achieved using the reservoir is also higher than that obtained with the standard transmission matrix model, a widely accepted tool for describing light transmission through disordered devices. We find that the reason for such improved performance could be due to the fact that the hardware classifier operates in a flatter region of the loss landscape when trained on fiber data, which aligns with the current theory of deep neural networks. These findings strongly suggest that multi-mode fibers possess robust generalization properties, positioning them as promising tools for optically-assisted neural networks. With this study, in fact, we want to contribute to advancing the knowledge and practical utilization of these versatile instruments, which may play a significant role in shaping the future of machine learning.

During crisis situations, social media allows people to quickly share information, including messages requesting help. This can be valuable to emergency responders, who need to categorise and prioritise these messages based on the type of assistance being requested. However, the high volume of messages makes it difficult to filter and prioritise them without the use of computational techniques. Fully supervised filtering techniques for crisis message categorisation typically require a large amount of annotated training data, but this can be difficult to obtain during an ongoing crisis and is expensive in terms of time and labour to create. This thesis focuses on addressing the challenge of low data availability when categorising crisis messages for emergency response. It first presents domain adaptation as a solution for this problem, which involves learning a categorisation model from annotated data from past crisis events (source domain) and adapting it to categorise messages from an ongoing crisis event (target domain). In many-to-many adaptation, where the model is trained on multiple past events and adapted to multiple ongoing events, a multi-task learning approach is proposed using pre-trained language models. This approach outperforms baselines and an ensemble approach further improves performance...

We study the phenomenon of \textit{in-context learning} (ICL) exhibited by large language models, where they can adapt to a new learning task, given a handful of labeled examples, without any explicit parameter optimization. Our goal is to explain how a pre-trained transformer model is able to perform ICL under reasonable assumptions on the pre-training process and the downstream tasks. We posit a mechanism whereby a transformer can achieve the following: (a) receive an i.i.d. sequence of examples which have been converted into a prompt using potentially-ambiguous delimiters, (b) correctly segment the prompt into examples and labels, (c) infer from the data a \textit{sparse linear regressor} hypothesis, and finally (d) apply this hypothesis on the given test example and return a predicted label. We establish that this entire procedure is implementable using the transformer mechanism, and we give sample complexity guarantees for this learning framework. Our empirical findings validate the challenge of segmentation, and we show a correspondence between our posited mechanisms and observed attention maps for step (c).

Autoregressive language models are trained by minimizing the cross-entropy of the model distribution Q relative to the data distribution P -- that is, minimizing the forward cross-entropy, which is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We have observed that models trained in this way may "over-generalize", in the sense that they produce non-human-like text. Moreover, we believe that reverse cross-entropy, i.e., the cross-entropy of P relative to Q, is a better reflection of how a human would evaluate text generated by a model. Hence, we propose learning with MixCE, an objective that mixes the forward and reverse cross-entropies. We evaluate models trained with this objective on synthetic data settings (where P is known) and real data, and show that the resulting models yield better generated text without complex decoding strategies. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bloomberg/mixce-acl2023

Voltage control is crucial to large-scale power system reliable operation, as timely reactive power support can help prevent widespread outages. However, there is currently no built in mechanism for power systems to ensure that the voltage control objective to maintain reliable operation will survive or sustain the uncertainty caused under adversary presence. Hence, this work introduces a Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) approach for power system control problems, with focus on sustained voltage control under uncertainty in a cyber-adversarial environment. This work proposes a data-driven BRL-based approach for automatic voltage control by formulating and solving a Partially-Observable Markov Decision Problem (POMDP), where the states are partially observable due to cyber intrusions. The techniques are evaluated on the WSCC and IEEE 14 bus systems. Additionally, BRL techniques assist in automatically finding a threshold for exploration and exploitation in various RL techniques.