Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast $\ell_2$ gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Outstanding achievements of graph neural networks for spatiotemporal time series analysis show that relational constraints introduce an effective inductive bias into neural forecasting architectures. Often, however, the relational information characterizing the underlying data-generating process is unavailable and the practitioner is left with the problem of inferring from data which relational graph to use in the subsequent processing stages. We propose novel, principled - yet practical - probabilistic score-based methods that learn the relational dependencies as distributions over graphs while maximizing end-to-end the performance at task. The proposed graph learning framework is based on consolidated variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo score-based gradient estimation, is theoretically grounded, and, as we show, effective in practice. In this paper, we focus on the time series forecasting problem and show that, by tailoring the gradient estimators to the graph learning problem, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art performance while controlling the sparsity of the learned graph and the computational scalability. We empirically assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that the proposed solution can be used as a stand-alone graph identification procedure as well as a graph learning component of an end-to-end forecasting architecture.

The acquisition of labels for supervised learning can be expensive. To improve the sample efficiency of neural network regression, we study active learning methods that adaptively select batches of unlabeled data for labeling. We present a framework for constructing such methods out of (network-dependent) base kernels, kernel transformations, and selection methods. Our framework encompasses many existing Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process approximations of neural networks as well as non-Bayesian methods. Additionally, we propose to replace the commonly used last-layer features with sketched finite-width neural tangent kernels and to combine them with a novel clustering method. To evaluate different methods, we introduce an open-source benchmark consisting of 15 large tabular regression data sets. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art on our benchmark, scales to large data sets, and works out-of-the-box without adjusting the network architecture or training code. We provide open-source code that includes efficient implementations of all kernels, kernel transformations, and selection methods, and can be used for reproducing our results.

Depression is a common disease worldwide. It is difficult to diagnose and continues to be underdiagnosed. Because depressed patients constantly share their symptoms, major life events, and treatments on social media, researchers are turning to user-generated digital traces on social media for depression detection. Such methods have distinct advantages in combating depression because they can facilitate innovative approaches to fight depression and alleviate its social and economic burden. However, most existing studies lack effective means to incorporate established medical domain knowledge in depression detection or suffer from feature extraction difficulties that impede greater performance. Following the design science research paradigm, we propose a Deep Knowledge-aware Depression Detection (DKDD) framework to accurately detect social media users at risk of depression and explain the critical factors that contribute to such detection. Extensive empirical studies with real-world data demonstrate that, by incorporating domain knowledge, our method outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Our work has significant implications for IS research in knowledge-aware machine learning, digital traces utilization, and NLP research in IS. Practically, by providing early detection and explaining the critical factors, DKDD can supplement clinical depression screening and enable large-scale evaluations of a population's mental health status.

Abstract-- We present a novel approach for fast and reliable policy selection for navigation in partial maps. Leveraging the recent learning-augmented model-based Learning over Subgoals Planning (LSP) abstraction to plan, our robot reuses data collected during navigation to evaluate how well other alternative policies could have performed via a procedure we call offline alt-policy replay. Costs from offline alt-policy replay constrain policy selection among the LSP-based policies during deployment, allowing for improvements in convergence speed, cumulative regret and average navigation cost. With only limited prior knowledge about the nature of unseen environments, we achieve at least 67% and as much as 96% improvements on cumulative regret over the baseline bandit approach in our experiments in simulated maze and office-like environments.

Autonomous mobility is emerging as a new disruptive mode of urban transportation for moving cargo and passengers. However, designing scalable autonomous fleet coordination schemes to accommodate fast-growing mobility systems is challenging primarily due to the increasing heterogeneity of the fleets, time-varying demand patterns, service area expansions, and communication limitations. We introduce the concept of partially observable advanced air mobility games to coordinate a fleet of aerial vehicles by accounting for the heterogeneity of the interacting agents and the self-interested nature inherent to commercial mobility fleets. To model the complex interactions among the agents and the observation uncertainty in the mobility networks, we propose a novel heterogeneous graph attention encoder-decoder (HetGAT Enc-Dec) neural network-based stochastic policy. We train the policy by leveraging deep multi-agent reinforcement learning, allowing decentralized decision-making for the agents using their local observations. Through extensive experimentation, we show that the learned policy generalizes to various fleet compositions, demand patterns, and observation topologies. Further, fleets operating under the HetGAT Enc-Dec policy outperform other state-of-the-art graph neural network policies by achieving the highest fleet reward and fulfillment ratios in on-demand mobility networks.

In recent years, we have witnessed a surge of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), most of which can learn powerful representations in an end-to-end fashion with great success in many real-world applications. They have resemblance to Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs), but break free from some limitations of PGMs. By aiming to provide expressive methods for representation learning instead of computing marginals or most likely configurations, GNNs provide flexibility in the choice of information flowing rules while maintaining good performance. Despite their success and inspirations, they lack efficient ways to represent and learn higher-order relations among variables/nodes. More expressive higher-order GNNs which operate on k-tuples of nodes need increased computational resources in order to process higher-order tensors. We propose Factor Graph Neural Networks (FGNNs) to effectively capture higher-order relations for inference and learning. To do so, we first derive an efficient approximate Sum-Product loopy belief propagation inference algorithm for discrete higher-order PGMs. We then neuralize the novel message passing scheme into a Factor Graph Neural Network (FGNN) module by allowing richer representations of the message update rules; this facilitates both efficient inference and powerful end-to-end learning. We further show that with a suitable choice of message aggregation operators, our FGNN is also able to represent Max-Product belief propagation, providing a single family of architecture that can represent both Max and Sum-Product loopy belief propagation. Our extensive experimental evaluation on synthetic as well as real datasets demonstrates the potential of the proposed model.

We present a categorical formulation of the cognitive frameworks of Predictive Processing and Active Inference, expressed in terms of string diagrams interpreted in a monoidal category with copying and discarding. This includes diagrammatic accounts of generative models, Bayesian updating, perception, planning, active inference, and free energy. In particular we present a diagrammatic derivation of the formula for active inference via free energy minimisation, and establish a compositionality property for free energy, allowing free energy to be applied at all levels of an agent's generative model. Aside from aiming to provide a helpful graphical language for those familiar with active inference, we conversely hope that this article may provide a concise formulation and introduction to the framework.

Autonomous agents that operate in the real world must often deal with partial observability, which is commonly modeled as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, traditional POMDP models rely on the assumption of complete knowledge of the observation source, known as fully observable data association. To address this limitation, we propose a planning algorithm that maintains multiple data association hypotheses, represented as a belief mixture, where each component corresponds to a different data association hypothesis. However, this method can lead to an exponential growth in the number of hypotheses, resulting in significant computational overhead. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a pruning-based approach for planning with ambiguous data associations. Our key contribution is to derive bounds between the value function based on the complete set of hypotheses and the value function based on a pruned-subset of the hypotheses, enabling us to establish a trade-off between computational efficiency and performance. We demonstrate how these bounds can both be used to certify any pruning heuristic in retrospect and propose a novel approach to determine which hypotheses to prune in order to ensure a predefined limit on the loss. We evaluate our approach in simulated environments and demonstrate its efficacy in handling multi-modal belief hypotheses with ambiguous data associations.

As AI and machine-learned software are used increasingly for making decisions that affect humans, it is imperative that they remain fair and unbiased in their decisions. To complement design-time bias mitigation measures, runtime verification techniques have been introduced recently to monitor the algorithmic fairness of deployed systems. Previous monitoring techniques assume full observability of the states of the (unknown) monitored system. Moreover, they can monitor only fairness properties that are specified as arithmetic expressions over the probabilities of different events. In this work, we extend fairness monitoring to systems modeled as partially observed Markov chains (POMC), and to specifications containing arithmetic expressions over the expected values of numerical functions on event sequences. The only assumptions we make are that the underlying POMC is aperiodic and starts in the stationary distribution, with a bound on its mixing time being known. These assumptions enable us to estimate a given property for the entire distribution of possible executions of the monitored POMC, by observing only a single execution. Our monitors observe a long run of the system and, after each new observation, output updated PAC-estimates of how fair or biased the system is. The monitors are computationally lightweight and, using a prototype implementation, we demonstrate their effectiveness on several real-world examples.