A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms underlying the data-generating process, we demonstrate a way to detect unobserved confounders when having multiple observational datasets coming from different environments. We present a theory for testable conditional independencies that are only absent when there is hidden confounding and examine cases where we violate its assumptions: degenerate & dependent mechanisms, and faithfulness violations. Additionally, we propose a procedure to test these independencies and study its empirical finite-sample behavior using simulation studies and semi-synthetic data based on a real-world dataset. In most cases, the proposed procedure correctly predicts the presence of hidden confounding, particularly when the confounding bias is large.

Variational autoencoders and Helmholtz machines use a recognition network (encoder) to approximate the posterior distribution of a generative model (decoder). In this paper we study the necessary and sufficient properties of a recognition network so that it can model the true posterior distribution exactly. These results are derived in the general context of probabilistic graphical modelling / Bayesian networks, for which the network represents a set of conditional independence statements. We derive both global conditions, in terms of d-separation, and local conditions for the recognition network to have the desired qualities. It turns out that for the local conditions the property perfectness (for every node, all parents are joined) plays an important role.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has gained much attention for its ability to learn complex behaviors in a sample-efficient way: planning actions by generating imaginary trajectories with predicted rewards. Despite its success, we found that surprisingly, reward prediction is often a bottleneck of MBRL, especially for sparse rewards that are challenging (or even ambiguous) to predict. Motivated by the intuition that humans can learn from rough reward estimates, we propose a simple yet effective reward smoothing approach, DreamSmooth, which learns to predict a temporally-smoothed reward, instead of the exact reward at the given timestep. We empirically show that DreamSmooth achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon sparse-reward tasks both in sample efficiency and final performance without losing performance on common benchmarks, such as Deepmind Control Suite and Atari benchmarks.

While robust graph neural networks (GNNs) have been widely studied for graph perturbation and attack, those for label noise have received significantly less attention. Most existing methods heavily rely on the label smoothness assumption to correct noisy labels, which adversely affects their performance on heterophilous graphs. Further, they generally perform poorly in high noise-rate scenarios. To address these problems, in this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic graphical model (PGM) based framework LNP. Given a noisy label set and a clean label set, our goal is to maximize the likelihood of labels in the clean set. We first present LNP-v1, which generates clean labels based on graphs only in the Bayesian network. To further leverage the information of clean labels in the noisy label set, we put forward LNP-v2, which incorporates the noisy label set into the Bayesian network to generate clean labels. The generative process can then be used to predict labels for unlabeled nodes. We conduct extensive experiments to show the robustness of LNP on varying noise types and rates, and also on graphs with different heterophilies. In particular, we show that LNP can lead to inspiring performance in high noise-rate situations.

Encoding only the task-related information from the raw data, \ie, disentangled representation learning, can greatly contribute to the robustness and generalizability of models. Although significant advances have been made by regularizing the information in representations with information theory, two major challenges remain: 1) the representation compression inevitably leads to performance drop; 2) the disentanglement constraints on representations are in complicated optimization. To these issues, we introduce Bayesian networks with transmitted information to formulate the interaction among input and representations during disentanglement. Building upon this framework, we propose \textbf{DisTIB} (\textbf{T}ransmitted \textbf{I}nformation \textbf{B}ottleneck for \textbf{Dis}entangled representation learning), a novel objective that navigates the balance between information compression and preservation. We employ variational inference to derive a tractable estimation for DisTIB. This estimation can be simply optimized via standard gradient descent with a reparameterization trick. Moreover, we theoretically prove that DisTIB can achieve optimal disentanglement, underscoring its superior efficacy. To solidify our claims, we conduct extensive experiments on various downstream tasks to demonstrate the appealing efficacy of DisTIB and validate our theoretical analyses.

The task of uncovering causal relationships among multivariate time series data stands as an essential and challenging objective that cuts across a broad array of disciplines ranging from climate science to healthcare. Such data entails linear or non-linear relationships, and usually follow multiple a priori unknown regimes. Existing causal discovery methods can infer summary causal graphs from heterogeneous data with known regimes, but they fall short in comprehensively learning both regimes and the corresponding causal graph. In this paper, we introduce CASTOR, a novel framework designed to learn causal relationships in heterogeneous time series data composed of various regimes, each governed by a distinct causal graph. Through the maximization of a score function via the EM algorithm, CASTOR infers the number of regimes and learns linear or non-linear causal relationships in each regime. We demonstrate the robust convergence properties of CASTOR, specifically highlighting its proficiency in accurately identifying unique regimes. Empirical evidence, garnered from exhaustive synthetic experiments and two real-world benchmarks, confirm CASTOR's superior performance in causal discovery compared to baseline methods. By learning a full temporal causal graph for each regime, CASTOR establishes itself as a distinctly interpretable method for causal discovery in heterogeneous time series. Multivariate Time Series (MTS) is a very common type of data in a wide variety of fields. Uncovering the causal relationships among MTS variables and understanding how they evolve over time is crucial in numerous fields, such as climate science and health care. Although randomized controlled trials are widely recognized as the definitive method for determining causal relationships (Hariton & Locascio, 2018; McCoy, 2017), they often present challenges in terms of cost, ethics, or feasibility. For example: learning gene regulatory networks via gene knockout experiments would be prohibitively expensive on a large scale. Consequently, a multitude of causal discovery approaches now focus on extracting causality from observational data sources (L owe et al., 2022; Bussmann et al., 2021; Pamfil et al., 2020; Moraffah et al., 2021; Runge, 2018; Wu et al., 2020).

Formal methods refer to rigorous, mathematical approaches to system development and have played a key role in establishing the correctness of safety-critical systems. The main building blocks of formal methods are models and specifications, which are analogous to behaviors and requirements in system design and give us the means to verify and synthesize system behaviors with formal guarantees. This monograph provides a survey of the current state of the art on applications of formal methods in the autonomous systems domain. We consider correct-by-construction synthesis under various formulations, including closed systems, reactive, and probabilistic settings. Beyond synthesizing systems in known environments, we address the concept of uncertainty and bound the behavior of systems that employ learning using formal methods. Further, we examine the synthesis of systems with monitoring, a mitigation technique for ensuring that once a system deviates from expected behavior, it knows a way of returning to normalcy. We also show how to overcome some limitations of formal methods themselves with learning. We conclude with future directions for formal methods in reinforcement learning, uncertainty, privacy, explainability of formal methods, and regulation and certification.

Neural decoding involves correlating signals acquired from the brain to variables in the physical world like limb movement or robot control in Brain Machine Interfaces. In this context, this work starts from a specific pre-existing dataset of neural recordings from monkey motor cortex and presents a Deep Learning-based approach to the decoding of neural signals for grasp type classification. Specifically, we propose here an approach that exploits LSTM networks to classify time series containing neural data (i.e., spike trains) into classes representing the object being grasped. The main goal of the presented approach is to improve over state-of-the-art decoding accuracy without relying on any prior neuroscience knowledge, and leveraging only the capability of deep learning models to extract correlations from data. The paper presents the results achieved for the considered dataset and compares them with previous works on the same dataset, showing a significant improvement in classification accuracy, even if considering simulated real-time decoding.

State-of-the-art techniques for enhancing robustness of deep networks mostly rely on empirical risk minimization with suitable data augmentation. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach motivated by communication theory, aimed at enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio at the output of a neural network layer via neural competition during learning and inference. In addition to minimization of a standard end-to-end cost, neurons compete to sparsely represent layer inputs by maximization of a tilted exponential (TEXP) objective function for the layer. TEXP learning can be interpreted as maximum likelihood estimation of matched filters under a Gaussian model for data noise. Inference in a TEXP layer is accomplished by replacing batch norm by a tilted softmax, which can be interpreted as computation of posterior probabilities for the competing signaling hypotheses represented by each neuron. After providing insights via simplified models, we show, by experimentation on standard image datasets, that TEXP learning and inference enhances robustness against noise and other common corruptions, without requiring data augmentation. Further cumulative gains in robustness against this array of distortions can be obtained by appropriately combining TEXP with data augmentation techniques.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. Working through a set of mental steps enables us to make inferences we would not be capable of making directly even though we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they would directly. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of overlapping local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables reduces bias, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis experimentally in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables. The combination of locally structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.