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 Learning Graphical Models


Fuse It or Lose It: Deep Fusion for Multimodal Simulation-Based Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present multimodal neural posterior estimation (MultiNPE), a method to integrate heterogeneous data from different sources in simulation-based inference with neural networks. Inspired by advances in attention-based deep fusion learning, it empowers researchers to analyze data from different domains and infer the parameters of complex mathematical models with increased accuracy. We formulate different multimodal fusion approaches for MultiNPE (early, late, and hybrid) and evaluate their performance in three challenging numerical experiments. MultiNPE not only outperforms na\"ive baselines on a benchmark model, but also achieves superior inference on representative scientific models from neuroscience and cardiology. In addition, we systematically investigate the impact of partially missing data on the different fusion strategies. Across our different experiments, late and hybrid fusion techniques emerge as the methods of choice for practical applications of multimodal simulation-based inference.


Predicting the Probability of Collision of a Satellite with Space Debris: A Bayesian Machine Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Space is becoming more crowded in Low Earth Orbit due to increased space activity. Such a dense space environment increases the risk of collisions between space objects endangering the whole space population. Therefore, the need to consider collision avoidance as part of routine operations is evident to satellite operators. Current procedures rely on the analysis of multiple collision warnings by human analysts. However, with the continuous growth of the space population, this manual approach may become unfeasible, highlighting the importance of automation in risk assessment. In 2019, ESA launched a competition to study the feasibility of applying machine learning in collision risk estimation and released a dataset that contained sequences of Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) in support of real close encounters. The competition results showed that the naive forecast and its variants are strong predictors for this problem, which suggests that the CDMs may follow the Markov property. The proposed work investigates this theory by benchmarking Hidden Markov Models (HMM) in predicting the risk of collision between two resident space objects by using one feature of the entire dataset: the sequence of the probability in the CDMs. In addition, Bayesian statistics are used to infer a joint distribution for the parameters of the models, which allows the development of robust and reliable probabilistic predictive models that can incorporate physical or prior knowledge about the problem within a rigorous theoretical framework and provides prediction uncertainties that nicely reflect the accuracy of the predicted risk. This work shows that the implemented HMM outperforms the naive solution in some metrics, which further adds to the idea that the collision warnings may be Markovian and suggests that this is a powerful method to be further explored.


Detection of Offensive and Threatening Online Content in a Low Resource Language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hausa is a major Chadic language, spoken by over 100 million people in Africa. However, from a computational linguistic perspective, it is considered a low-resource language, with limited resources to support Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Online platforms often facilitate social interactions that can lead to the use of offensive and threatening language, which can go undetected due to the lack of detection systems designed for Hausa. This study aimed to address this issue by (1) conducting two user studies (n=308) to investigate cyberbullying-related issues, (2) collecting and annotating the first set of offensive and threatening datasets to support relevant downstream tasks in Hausa, (3) developing a detection system to flag offensive and threatening content, and (4) evaluating the detection system and the efficacy of the Google-based translation engine in detecting offensive and threatening terms in Hausa. We found that offensive and threatening content is quite common, particularly when discussing religion and politics. Our detection system was able to detect more than 70% of offensive and threatening content, although many of these were mistranslated by Google's translation engine. We attribute this to the subtle relationship between offensive and threatening content and idiomatic expressions in the Hausa language. We recommend that diverse stakeholders participate in understanding local conventions and demographics in order to develop a more effective detection system. These insights are essential for implementing targeted moderation strategies to create a safe and inclusive online environment.


Utilizing VQ-VAE for End-to-End Health Indicator Generation in Predicting Rolling Bearing RUL

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of rolling bearings is a pivotal issue in industrial production. A crucial approach to tackling this issue involves transforming vibration signals into health indicators (HI) to aid model training. This paper presents an end-to-end HI construction method, vector quantised variational autoencoder (VQ-VAE), which addresses the need for dimensionality reduction of latent variables in traditional unsupervised learning methods such as autoencoder. Moreover, concerning the inadequacy of traditional statistical metrics in reflecting curve fluctuations accurately, two novel statistical metrics, mean absolute distance (MAD) and mean variance (MV), are introduced. These metrics accurately depict the fluctuation patterns in the curves, thereby indicating the model's accuracy in discerning similar features. On the PMH2012 dataset, methods employing VQ-VAE for label construction achieved lower values for MAD and MV. Furthermore, the ASTCN prediction model trained with VQ-VAE labels demonstrated commendable performance, attaining the lowest values for MAD and MV.


Quantum-Assisted Simulation: A Framework for Designing Machine Learning Models in the Quantum Computing Domain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) models are trained using historical data to classify new, unseen data. However, traditional computing resources often struggle to handle the immense amount of data, commonly known as Big Data, within a reasonable timeframe. Quantum computing (QC) provides a novel approach to information processing. Quantum algorithms have the potential to process classical data exponentially faster than classical computing. By mapping quantum machine learning (QML) algorithms into the quantum mechanical domain, we can potentially achieve exponential improvements in data processing speed, reduced resource requirements, and enhanced accuracy and efficiency. In this article, we delve into both the QC and ML fields, exploring the interplay of ideas between them, as well as the current capabilities and limitations of hardware. We investigate the history of quantum computing, examine existing QML algorithms, and aim to present a simplified procedure for setting up simulations of QML algorithms, making it accessible and understandable for readers. Furthermore, we conducted simulations on a dataset using both machine learning and quantum machine learning approaches. We then proceeded to compare their respective performances by utilizing a quantum simulator.


Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Isolated Imaginations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

World models learn the consequences of actions in vision-based interactive systems. However, in practical scenarios like autonomous driving, noncontrollable dynamics that are independent or sparsely dependent on action signals often exist, making it challenging to learn effective world models. To address this issue, we propose Iso-Dream++, a model-based reinforcement learning approach that has two main contributions. First, we optimize the inverse dynamics to encourage the world model to isolate controllable state transitions from the mixed spatiotemporal variations of the environment. Second, we perform policy optimization based on the decoupled latent imaginations, where we roll out noncontrollable states into the future and adaptively associate them with the current controllable state. This enables long-horizon visuomotor control tasks to benefit from isolating mixed dynamics sources in the wild, such as self-driving cars that can anticipate the movement of other vehicles, thereby avoiding potential risks. On top of our previous work, we further consider the sparse dependencies between controllable and noncontrollable states, address the training collapse problem of state decoupling, and validate our approach in transfer learning setups. Our empirical study demonstrates that Iso-Dream++ outperforms existing reinforcement learning models significantly on CARLA and DeepMind Control.


Language Decision Transformers with Exponential Tilt for Interactive Text Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Text-based game environments are challenging because agents must deal with long sequences of text, execute compositional actions using text and learn from sparse rewards. We address these challenges by proposing Language Decision Transformers (LDTs), a framework that is based on transformer language models and decision transformers (DTs). Our LDTs extend DTs with 3 components: (1) exponential tilt to guide the agent towards high obtainable goals, (2) novel goal conditioning methods yielding better results than the traditional return-to-go (sum of all future rewards), and (3) a model of future observations that improves agent performance. LDTs are the first to address offline RL with DTs on these challenging games. Our experiments show that LDTs achieve the highest scores among many different types of agents on some of the most challenging Jericho games, such as Enchanter.


A Review of Intelligent Music Generation Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the introduction of ChatGPT, the public's perception of AI-generated content (AIGC) has begun to reshape. Artificial intelligence has significantly reduced the barrier to entry for non-professionals in creative endeavors, enhancing the efficiency of content creation. Recent advancements have seen significant improvements in the quality of symbolic music generation, which is enabled by the use of modern generative algorithms to extract patterns implicit in a piece of music based on rule constraints or a musical corpus. Nevertheless, existing literature reviews tend to present a conventional and conservative perspective on future development trajectories, with a notable absence of thorough benchmarking of generative models. This paper provides a survey and analysis of recent intelligent music generation techniques, outlining their respective characteristics and discussing existing methods for evaluation. Additionally, the paper compares the different characteristics of music generation techniques in the East and West as well as analysing the field's development prospects.


Graph-Based Methods for Discrete Choice

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Choices made by individuals have widespread impacts--for instance, people choose between political candidates to vote for, between social media posts to share, and between brands to purchase--moreover, data on these choices are increasingly abundant. Discrete choice models are a key tool for learning individual preferences from such data. Additionally, social factors like conformity and contagion influence individual choice. Traditional methods for incorporating these factors into choice models do not account for the entire social network and require hand-crafted features. To overcome these limitations, we use graph learning to study choice in networked contexts. We identify three ways in which graph learning techniques can be used for discrete choice: learning chooser representations, regularizing choice model parameters, and directly constructing predictions from a network. We design methods in each category and test them on real-world choice datasets, including county-level 2016 US election results and Android app installation and usage data. We show that incorporating social network structure can improve the predictions of the standard econometric choice model, the multinomial logit. We provide evidence that app installations are influenced by social context, but we find no such effect on app usage among the same participants, which instead is habit-driven. In the election data, we highlight the additional insights a discrete choice framework provides over classification or regression, the typical approaches. On synthetic data, we demonstrate the sample complexity benefit of using social information in choice models.


Implicit Maximum a Posteriori Filtering via Adaptive Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems. Time-varying systems are ubiquitous in science, engineering, and machine learning. Consider a multielectrode array receiving raw voltage signals from thousands of neurons during a visual perception task. The goal is to infer some underlying neural state that is not directly observable, such that we can draw connections between neural activity and visual perception, but raw voltage signals are a sparse representation of neural activity that is shrouded in noise. To confound the problem further, the underlying neural state changes throughout time in both expected and unexpected ways. This problem, and most time-varying prediction problems, can be formalized as a probablistic state space model where latent variables evolve over time and emit observations (Simon, 2006). One solution to such a problem is to apply a Bayesian filter, a type of probabilistic model that can infer the values of latent variables from observations.