Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), or directly model the posterior, such as Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE). While ABC is efficient on low-dimensional problems, on higher-dimensional tasks, it is generally outperformed by SNPE which leverages function approximation. In this paper, we propose Pseudo-Likelihood Inference (PLI), a new method that brings neural approximation into ABC, making it competitive on challenging Bayesian system identification tasks. By utilizing integral probability metrics, we introduce a smooth likelihood kernel with an adaptive bandwidth that is updated based on information-theoretic trust regions. Thanks to this formulation, our method (i) allows for optimizing neural posteriors via gradient descent, (ii) does not rely on summary statistics, and (iii) enables multiple observations as input. In comparison to SNPE, it leads to improved performance when more data is available. The effectiveness of PLI is evaluated on four classical SBI benchmark tasks and on a highly dynamic physical system, showing particular advantages on stochastic simulations and multi-modal posterior landscapes.

Loss functions serve as the foundation of supervised learning and are often chosen prior to model development. To avoid potentially ad hoc choices of losses, statistical decision theory describes a desirable property for losses known as \emph{properness}, which asserts that Bayes' rule is optimal. Recent works have sought to \emph{learn losses} and models jointly. Existing methods do this by fitting an inverse canonical link function which monotonically maps $\mathbb{R}$ to $[0,1]$ to estimate probabilities for binary problems. In this paper, we extend monotonicity to maps between $\mathbb{R}^{C-1}$ and the projected probability simplex $\tilde{\Delta}^{C-1}$ by using monotonicity of gradients of convex functions. We present {\sc LegendreTron} as a novel and practical method that jointly learns \emph{proper canonical losses} and probabilities for multiclass problems. Tested on a benchmark of domains with up to 1,000 classes, our experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the natural multiclass baseline under a $t$-test at 99% significance on all datasets with greater than 10 classes.

This review paper takes a comprehensive look at malicious attacks against FL, categorizing them from new perspectives on attack origins and targets, and providing insights into their methodology and impact. In this survey, we focus on threat models targeting the learning process of FL systems. Based on the source and target of the attack, we categorize existing threat models into four types, Data to Model (D2M), Model to Data (M2D), Model to Model (M2M) and composite attacks. For each attack type, we discuss the defense strategies proposed, highlighting their effectiveness, assumptions and potential areas for improvement. Defense strategies have evolved from using a singular metric to excluding malicious clients, to employing a multifaceted approach examining client models at various phases. In this survey paper, our research indicates that the to-learn data, the learning gradients, and the learned model at different stages all can be manipulated to initiate malicious attacks that range from undermining model performance, reconstructing private local data, and to inserting backdoors. We have also seen these threat are becoming more insidious. While earlier studies typically amplified malicious gradients, recent endeavors subtly alter the least significant weights in local models to bypass defense measures. This literature review provides a holistic understanding of the current FL threat landscape and highlights the importance of developing robust, efficient, and privacy-preserving defenses to ensure the safe and trusted adoption of FL in real-world applications.

It is common to model a deterministic response function, such as the output of a computer experiment, as a Gaussian process with a Mat\'ern covariance kernel. The smoothness parameter of a Mat\'ern kernel determines many important properties of the model in the large data limit, including the rate of convergence of the conditional mean to the response function. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimate of the smoothness parameter cannot asymptotically undersmooth the truth when the data are obtained on a fixed bounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$. That is, if the data-generating response function has Sobolev smoothness $\nu_0 > d/2$, then the smoothness parameter estimate cannot be asymptotically less than $\nu_0$. The lower bound is sharp. Additionally, we show that maximum likelihood estimation recovers the true smoothness for a class of compactly supported self-similar functions. For cross-validation we prove an asymptotic lower bound $\nu_0 - d/2$, which however is unlikely to be sharp. The results are based on approximation theory in Sobolev spaces and some general theorems that restrict the set of values that the parameter estimators can take.

Generative training has been demonstrated to be powerful for building visual-language models. However, on zero-shot discriminative benchmarks, there is still a performance gap between models trained with generative and discriminative objectives. In this paper, we aim to narrow this gap by improving the efficacy of generative training on classification tasks, without any finetuning processes or additional modules. Specifically, we focus on narrowing the gap between the generative captioner and the CLIP classifier. We begin by analysing the predictions made by the captioner and classifier and observe that the caption generation inherits the distribution bias from the language model trained with pure text modality, making it less grounded on the visual signal. To tackle this problem, we redesign the scoring objective for the captioner to alleviate the distributional bias and focus on measuring the gain of information brought by the visual inputs. We further design a generative training objective to match the evaluation objective. We name our model trained and evaluated from the novel procedures as Information Gain (IG) captioner. We pretrain the models on the public Laion-5B dataset and perform a series of discriminative evaluations. For the zero-shot classification on ImageNet, IG captioner achieves $> 18\%$ improvements over the standard captioner, achieving comparable performances with the CLIP classifier. IG captioner also demonstrated strong performance on zero-shot image-text retrieval tasks on MSCOCO and Flickr30K. We hope this paper inspires further research towards unifying generative and discriminative training procedures for visual-language models.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Neural network performance has made great strides in recent years by incorporating key assumptions, often referred to as inductive biases, about data domains into specialized model structures. The designs of popular neural network architectures such as recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, graph neural networks, and transformers all incorporate aspects of their respective task-specific domains into the operations, weight sharing, and connections of their underlying network structure [1, 3, 4, 9, 12]. That specialization, has, in turn, yielded improved efficiency and performance over the more general, fully connected design. Note, however, when implemented, these neural networks tend to be treated as entirely separate architectures, with no explicit connections between them, despite their similar underlying assumptions. Not only does this practice obscures some of the core theoretical similarities between these models, but it can also make modifying the architecture cumbersome when any of those original assumptions about the task domain change even slightly. There exist several well-established methods for describing and reasoning from logical knowledge bases that could trivially describe both the assumptions made on a task's domain and the graphical structure of the neural network itself. Nonetheless, simply using deterministic logic on its own to define that structure, through any given logical programming language, does not immediately align with the constrained structure of the neural network and the uncertainty present in said network's predictions.

This article presents a method for learning well-coordinated Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) from Human-Human Interactions (HHI). We devise a hybrid approach using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) as the latent space priors for a Variational Autoencoder to model a joint distribution over the interacting agents. We leverage the interaction dynamics learned from HHI to learn HRI and incorporate the conditional generation of robot motions from human observations into the training, thereby predicting more accurate robot trajectories. The generated robot motions are further adapted with Inverse Kinematics to ensure the desired physical proximity with a human, combining the ease of joint space learning and accurate task space reachability. For contact-rich interactions, we modulate the robot's stiffness using HMM segmentation for a compliant interaction. We verify the effectiveness of our approach deployed on a Humanoid robot via a user study. Our method generalizes well to various humans despite being trained on data from just two humans. We find that Users perceive our method as more human-like, timely, and accurate and rank our method with a higher degree of preference over other baselines.

We reinvigorate maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for macroeconomic density forecasting through a novel neural network architecture with dedicated mean and variance hemispheres. Our architecture features several key ingredients making MLE work in this context. First, the hemispheres share a common core at the entrance of the network which accommodates for various forms of time variation in the error variance. Second, we introduce a volatility emphasis constraint that breaks mean/variance indeterminacy in this class of overparametrized nonlinear models. Third, we conduct a blocked out-of-bag reality check to curb overfitting in both conditional moments. Fourth, the algorithm utilizes standard deep learning software and thus handles large data sets - both computationally and statistically. Ergo, our Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) provides proactive volatility forecasts based on leading indicators when it can, and reactive volatility based on the magnitude of previous prediction errors when it must. We evaluate point and density forecasts with an extensive out-of-sample experiment and benchmark against a suite of models ranging from classics to more modern machine learning-based offerings. In all cases, HNN fares well by consistently providing accurate mean/variance forecasts for all targets and horizons. Studying the resulting volatility paths reveals its versatility, while probabilistic forecasting evaluation metrics showcase its enviable reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate how this machinery can be merged with other structured deep learning models by revisiting Goulet Coulombe (2022)'s Neural Phillips Curve.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) provides a promising way for intelligent agents (e.g., autonomous vehicles) to learn to navigate complex scenarios. However, DRL with neural networks as function approximators is typically considered a black box with little explainability and often suffers from suboptimal performance, especially for autonomous navigation in highly interactive multi-agent environments. To address these issues, we propose three auxiliary tasks with spatio-temporal relational reasoning and integrate them into the standard DRL framework, which improves the decision making performance and provides explainable intermediate indicators. We propose to explicitly infer the internal states (i.e., traits and intentions) of surrounding agents (e.g., human drivers) as well as to predict their future trajectories in the situations with and without the ego agent through counterfactual reasoning. These auxiliary tasks provide additional supervision signals to infer the behavior patterns of other interactive agents. Multiple variants of framework integration strategies are compared. We also employ a spatio-temporal graph neural network to encode relations between dynamic entities, which enhances both internal state inference and decision making of the ego agent. Moreover, we propose an interactivity estimation mechanism based on the difference between predicted trajectories in these two situations, which indicates the degree of influence of the ego agent on other agents. To validate the proposed method, we design an intersection driving simulator based on the Intelligent Intersection Driver Model (IIDM) that simulates vehicles and pedestrians. Our approach achieves robust and state-of-the-art performance in terms of standard evaluation metrics and provides explainable intermediate indicators (i.e., internal states, and interactivity scores) for decision making.