Estimating the parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is of fundamental importance in many scientific applications. While ODEs are typically approximated with deterministic algorithms, new research on probabilistic solvers indicates that they produce more reliable parameter estimates by better accounting for numerical errors. However, many ODE systems are highly sensitive to their parameter values. This produces deep local maxima in the likelihood function -- a problem which existing probabilistic solvers have yet to resolve. Here we present a novel probabilistic ODE likelihood approximation, DALTON, which can dramatically reduce parameter sensitivity by learning from noisy ODE measurements in a data-adaptive manner. Our approximation scales linearly in both ODE variables and time discretization points, and is applicable to ODEs with both partially-unobserved components and non-Gaussian measurement models. Several examples demonstrate that DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates via numerical optimization than existing probabilistic ODE solvers, and even in some cases than the exact ODE likelihood itself.

We propose a solution for linear inverse problems based on higher-order Langevin diffusion. More precisely, we propose pre-conditioned second-order and third-order Langevin dynamics that provably sample from the posterior distribution of our unknown variables of interest while being computationally more efficient than their first-order counterpart and the non-conditioned versions of both dynamics. Moreover, we prove that both pre-conditioned dynamics are well-defined and have the same unique invariant distributions as the non-conditioned cases. We also incorporate an annealing procedure that has the double benefit of further accelerating the convergence of the algorithm and allowing us to accommodate the case where the unknown variables are discrete. Numerical experiments in two different tasks in communications (MIMO symbol detection and channel estimation) and in three tasks for images showcase the generality of our method and illustrate the high performance achieved relative to competing approaches (including learning-based ones) while having comparable or lower computational complexity.

The heteroscedastic probabilistic principal component analysis (PCA) technique, a variant of the classic PCA that considers data heterogeneity, is receiving more and more attention in the data science and signal processing communities. In this paper, to estimate the underlying low-dimensional linear subspace (simply called \emph{ground truth}) from available heterogeneous data samples, we consider the associated non-convex maximum-likelihood estimation problem, which involves maximizing a sum of heterogeneous quadratic forms over an orthogonality constraint (HQPOC). We propose a first-order method -- generalized power method (GPM) -- to tackle the problem and establish its \emph{estimation performance} guarantee. Specifically, we show that, given a suitable initialization, the distances between the iterates generated by GPM and the ground truth decrease at least geometrically to some threshold associated with the residual part of certain "population-residual decomposition". In establishing the estimation performance result, we prove a novel local error bound property of another closely related optimization problem, namely quadratic optimization with orthogonality constraint (QPOC), which is new and can be of independent interest. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the superior performance of GPM in both Gaussian noise and sub-Gaussian noise settings.

This paper presents a general methodology for deriving information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms. The main technical tool is a probabilistic decorrelation lemma based on a change of measure and a relaxation of Young's inequality in $L_{\psi_p}$ Orlicz spaces. Using the decorrelation lemma in combination with other techniques, such as symmetrization, couplings, and chaining in the space of probability measures, we obtain new upper bounds on the generalization error, both in expectation and in high probability, and recover as special cases many of the existing generalization bounds, including the ones based on mutual information, conditional mutual information, stochastic chaining, and PAC-Bayes inequalities. In addition, the Fernique-Talagrand upper bound on the expected supremum of a subgaussian process emerges as a special case.

We propose to solve inverse problems involving the temporal evolution of physics systems by leveraging recent advances from diffusion models. Our method moves the system's current state backward in time step by step by combining an approximate inverse physics simulator and a learned correction function. A central insight of our work is that training the learned correction with a single-step loss is equivalent to a score matching objective, while recursively predicting longer parts of the trajectory during training relates to maximum likelihood training of a corresponding probability flow. We highlight the advantages of our algorithm compared to standard denoising score matching and implicit score matching, as well as fully learned baselines for a wide range of inverse physics problems. The resulting inverse solver has excellent accuracy and temporal stability and, in contrast to other learned inverse solvers, allows for sampling the posterior of the solutions. Code and experiments are available at https://github.com/tum-pbs/SMDP.

Transferring knowledge in cross-domain reinforcement learning is a challenging setting in which learning is accelerated by reusing knowledge from a task with different observation and/or action space. However, it is often necessary to carefully select the source of knowledge for the receiving end to benefit from the transfer process. In this article, we study how to measure the similarity between cross-domain reinforcement learning tasks to select a source of knowledge that will improve the performance of the learning agent. We developed a semi-supervised alignment loss to match different spaces with a set of encoder-decoders, and use them to measure similarity and transfer policies across tasks. In comparison to prior works, our method does not require data to be aligned, paired or collected by expert policies. Experimental results, on a set of varied Mujoco control tasks, show the robustness of our method in effectively selecting and transferring knowledge, without the supervision of a tailored set of source tasks.

Listeners recognize and integrate words in rapid and noisy everyday speech by combining expectations about upcoming content with incremental sensory evidence. We present a computational model of word recognition which formalizes this perceptual process in Bayesian decision theory. We fit this model to explain scalp EEG signals recorded as subjects passively listened to a fictional story, revealing both the dynamics of the online auditory word recognition process and the neural correlates of the recognition and integration of words. The model reveals distinct neural processing of words depending on whether or not they can be quickly recognized. While all words trigger a neural response characteristic of probabilistic integration -- voltage modulations predicted by a word's surprisal in context -- these modulations are amplified for words which require more than roughly 150 ms of input to be recognized. We observe no difference in the latency of these neural responses according to words' recognition times. Our results are consistent with a two-part model of speech comprehension, combining an eager and rapid process of word recognition with a temporally independent process of word integration. However, we also developed alternative models of the scalp EEG signal not incorporating word recognition dynamics which showed similar performance improvements. We discuss potential future modeling steps which may help to separate these hypotheses.

Due to the advent and increase in the popularity of the Internet, people have been producing and disseminating textual data in several ways, such as reviews, social media posts, and news articles. As a result, numerous researchers have been working on discovering patterns in textual data, especially because social media posts function as social sensors, indicating peoples' opinions, interests, etc. However, most tasks regarding natural language processing are addressed using traditional machine learning methods and static datasets. This setting can lead to several problems, such as an outdated dataset, which may not correspond to reality, and an outdated model, which has its performance degrading over time. Concept drift is another aspect that emphasizes these issues, which corresponds to data distribution and pattern changes. In a text stream scenario, it is even more challenging due to its characteristics, such as the high speed and data arriving sequentially. In addition, models for this type of scenario must adhere to the constraints mentioned above while learning from the stream by storing texts for a limited time and consuming low memory. In this study, we performed a systematic literature review regarding concept drift adaptation in text stream scenarios. Considering well-defined criteria, we selected 40 papers to unravel aspects such as text drift categories, types of text drift detection, model update mechanism, the addressed stream mining tasks, types of text representations, and text representation update mechanism. In addition, we discussed drift visualization and simulation and listed real-world datasets used in the selected papers. Therefore, this paper comprehensively reviews the concept drift adaptation in text stream mining scenarios.

In the context of autonomous driving, pedestrian crossing prediction is a key component for improving road safety. Presently, the focus of these predictions extends beyond achieving trustworthy results; it is shifting towards the explainability and interpretability of these predictions. This research introduces a novel neuro-symbolic approach that combines deep learning and fuzzy logic for an explainable and interpretable pedestrian crossing prediction. We have developed an explainable predictor (ExPedCross), which utilizes a set of explainable features and employs a fuzzy inference system to predict whether the pedestrian will cross or not. Our approach was evaluated on both the PIE and JAAD datasets. The results offer experimental insights into achieving explainability and interpretability in the pedestrian crossing prediction task. Furthermore, the testing results yield a set of guidelines and recommendations regarding the process of dataset selection, feature selection, and explainability.

Stochastic networks and queueing systems often lead to Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large state and action spaces as well as nonconvex objective functions, which hinders the convergence of many reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Policy-gradient methods perform well on MDPs with large state and action spaces, but they sometimes experience slow convergence due to the high variance of the gradient estimator. In this paper, we show that some of these difficulties can be circumvented by exploiting the structure of the underlying MDP. We first introduce a new family of gradient estimators called score-aware gradient estimators (SAGEs). When the stationary distribution of the MDP belongs to an exponential family parametrized by the policy parameters, SAGEs allow us to estimate the policy gradient without relying on value-function estimation, contrary to classical policy-gradient methods like actor-critic. To demonstrate their applicability, we examine two common control problems arising in stochastic networks and queueing systems whose stationary distributions have a product-form, a special case of exponential families. As a second contribution, we show that, under appropriate assumptions, the policy under a SAGE-based policy-gradient method has a large probability of converging to an optimal policy, provided that it starts sufficiently close to it, even with a nonconvex objective function and multiple maximizers. Our key assumptions are that, locally around a maximizer, a nondegeneracy property of the Hessian of the objective function holds and a Lyapunov function exists. Finally, we conduct a numerical comparison between a SAGE-based policy-gradient method and an actor-critic algorithm. The results demonstrate that the SAGE-based method finds close-to-optimal policies more rapidly, highlighting its superior performance over the traditional actor-critic method.