Learning Graphical Models
Procedural generation of meta-reinforcement learning tasks
Open-endedness stands to benefit from the ability to generate an infinite variety of diverse, challenging environments. One particularly interesting type of challenge is meta-learning ("learning-to-learn"), a hallmark of intelligent behavior. However, the number of meta-learning environments in the literature is limited. Here we describe a parametrized space for simple meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) tasks with arbitrary stimuli. The parametrization allows us to randomly generate an arbitrary number of novel simple meta-learning tasks. The parametrization is expressive enough to include many well-known meta-RL tasks, such as bandit problems, the Harlow task, T-mazes, the Daw two-step task and others. Simple extensions allow it to capture tasks based on two-dimensional topological spaces, such as full mazes or find-the-spot domains. We describe a number of randomly generated meta-RL domains of varying complexity and discuss potential issues arising from random generation.
Deep Bayes Factors
Kim, Jungeum, Rockova, Veronika
The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors (marginal likelihood ratios) far from obvious. We propose a deep learning estimator of the Bayes factor based on simulated data from two competing models using the likelihood ratio trick. This estimator is devoid of summary statistics and obviates some of the difficulties with ABC model choice. We establish sufficient conditions for consistency of our Deep Bayes Factor estimator as well as its consistency as a model selection tool. We investigate the performance of our estimator on various examples using a wide range of quality metrics related to estimation and model decision accuracy. After training, our deep learning approach enables rapid evaluations of the Bayes factor estimator at any fictional data arriving from either hypothesized model, not just the observed data $Y_0$. This allows us to inspect entire Bayes factor distributions under the two models and to quantify the relative location of the Bayes factor evaluated at $Y_0$ in light of these distributions. Such tail area evaluations are not possible for Bayes factor estimators tailored to $Y_0$. We find the performance of our Deep Bayes Factors competitive with existing MCMC techniques that require the knowledge of the likelihood function. We also consider variants for posterior or intrinsic Bayes factors estimation. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach on a relatively high-dimensional real data example about determining cognitive biases.
Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Surrogate-based Bayesian Inference
Reiser, Philipp, Aguilar, Javier Enrique, Guthke, Anneli, Bürkner, Paul-Christian
Simulations of complex phenomena are crucial in the natural sciences and engineering for different scenarios, e.g., for gaining system understanding, prediction of future scenarios, risk assessment, or system design. However, often they are based on complex ordinary differential equations or partial differential equations which may not have closed-form solutions and may have to be solved using expensive numerical methods. To overcome computational overhead, the field of surrogate models (Zhu and Zabaras, 2018; Gramacy, 2020; Lavin et al., 2021) has emerged which provide fast approximations of computationally expensive simulation. Examples are polynomial chaos expansion (Wiener, 1938; Sudret, 2008; Oladyshkin and Nowak, 2012; Bürkner et al., 2023), Gaussian processes (Rasmussen and Williams, 2005) or neural networks (Goodfellow et al., 2016). Recently there has been a great interest in applying surrogate models in relevant areas, for example in hydrology (Mohammadi et al., 2018; Tarakanov and Elsheikh, 2019; Zhang et al., 2020), in fluid dynamics (Meyer et al., 2021), in climate prediction (Kuehnert et al., 2022), or in systems biology (Renardy et al., 2018; Alden et al., 2020).
Bayesian data fusion with shared priors
Wu, Peng, Imbiriba, Tales, Elvira, Victor, Closas, Pau
The integration of data and knowledge from several sources is known as data fusion. When data is only available in a distributed fashion or when different sensors are used to infer a quantity of interest, data fusion becomes essential. In Bayesian settings, a priori information of the unknown quantities is available and, possibly, present among the different distributed estimators. When the local estimates are fused, the prior knowledge used to construct several local posteriors might be overused unless the fusion node accounts for this and corrects it. In this paper, we analyze the effects of shared priors in Bayesian data fusion contexts. Depending on different common fusion rules, our analysis helps to understand the performance behavior as a function of the number of collaborative agents and as a consequence of different types of priors. The analysis is performed by using two divergences which are common in Bayesian inference, and the generality of the results allows to analyze very generic distributions. These theoretical results are corroborated through experiments in a variety of estimation and classification problems, including linear and nonlinear models, and federated learning schemes.
Multi-Frequency Joint Community Detection and Phase Synchronization
This paper studies the joint community detection and phase synchronization problem on the \textit{stochastic block model with relative phase}, where each node is associated with an unknown phase angle. This problem, with a variety of real-world applications, aims to recover the cluster structure and associated phase angles simultaneously. We show this problem exhibits a \textit{``multi-frequency''} structure by closely examining its maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) formulation, whereas existing methods are not originated from this perspective. To this end, two simple yet efficient algorithms that leverage the MLE formulation and benefit from the information across multiple frequencies are proposed. The former is a spectral method based on the novel multi-frequency column-pivoted QR factorization. The factorization applied to the top eigenvectors of the observation matrix provides key information about the cluster structure and associated phase angles. The second approach is an iterative multi-frequency generalized power method, where each iteration updates the estimation in a matrix-multiplication-then-projection manner. Numerical experiments show that our proposed algorithms significantly improve the ability of exactly recovering the cluster structure and the accuracy of the estimated phase angles, compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.
Learning to sample in Cartesian MRI
Despite its exceptional soft tissue contrast, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) faces the challenge of long scanning times compared to other modalities like X-ray radiography. Shortening scanning times is crucial in clinical settings, as it increases patient comfort, decreases examination costs and improves throughput. Recent advances in compressed sensing (CS) and deep learning allow accelerated MRI acquisition by reconstructing high-quality images from undersampled data. While reconstruction algorithms have received most of the focus, designing acquisition trajectories to optimize reconstruction quality remains an open question. This thesis explores two approaches to address this gap in the context of Cartesian MRI. First, we propose two algorithms, lazy LBCS and stochastic LBCS, that significantly improve upon G\"ozc\"u et al.'s greedy learning-based CS (LBCS) approach. These algorithms scale to large, clinically relevant scenarios like multi-coil 3D MR and dynamic MRI, previously inaccessible to LBCS. Additionally, we demonstrate that generative adversarial networks (GANs) can serve as a natural criterion for adaptive sampling by leveraging variance in the measurement domain to guide acquisition. Second, we delve into the underlying structures or assumptions that enable mask design algorithms to perform well in practice. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning (RL) approaches, while capable of adaptation and long-horizon planning, offer only marginal improvements over stochastic LBCS, which is neither adaptive nor does long-term planning. Altogether, our findings suggest that stochastic LBCS and similar methods represent promising alternatives to deep RL. They shine in particular by their scalability and computational efficiency and could be key in the deployment of optimized acquisition trajectories in Cartesian MRI.
Enhancing Polynomial Chaos Expansion Based Surrogate Modeling using a Novel Probabilistic Transfer Learning Strategy
Bridgman, Wyatt, Balakrishnan, Uma, Jones, Reese, Chen, Jiefu, Wu, Xuqing, Safta, Cosmin, Huang, Yueqin, Khalil, Mohammad
In the field of surrogate modeling, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) allows practitioners to construct inexpensive yet accurate surrogates to be used in place of the expensive forward model simulations. For black-box simulations, non-intrusive PCE allows the construction of these surrogates using a set of simulation response evaluations. In this context, the PCE coefficients can be obtained using linear regression, which is also known as point collocation or stochastic response surfaces. Regression exhibits better scalability and can handle noisy function evaluations in contrast to other non-intrusive approaches, such as projection. However, since over-sampling is generally advisable for the linear regression approach, the simulation requirements become prohibitive for expensive forward models. We propose to leverage transfer learning whereby knowledge gained through similar PCE surrogate construction tasks (source domains) is transferred to a new surrogate-construction task (target domain) which has a limited number of forward model simulations (training data). The proposed transfer learning strategy determines how much, if any, information to transfer using new techniques inspired by Bayesian modeling and data assimilation. The strategy is scrutinized using numerical investigations and applied to an engineering problem from the oil and gas industry.
Learning Curricula in Open-Ended Worlds
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) provides powerful methods for training optimal sequential decision-making agents. As collecting real-world interactions can entail additional costs and safety risks, the common paradigm of sim2real conducts training in a simulator, followed by real-world deployment. Unfortunately, RL agents easily overfit to the choice of simulated training environments, and worse still, learning ends when the agent masters the specific set of simulated environments. In contrast, the real world is highly open-ended, featuring endlessly evolving environments and challenges, making such RL approaches unsuitable. Simply randomizing over simulated environments is insufficient, as it requires making arbitrary distributional assumptions and can be combinatorially less likely to sample specific environment instances that are useful for learning. An ideal learning process should automatically adapt the training environment to maximize the learning potential of the agent over an open-ended task space that matches or surpasses the complexity of the real world. This thesis develops a class of methods called Unsupervised Environment Design (UED), which aim to produce such open-ended processes. Given an environment design space, UED automatically generates an infinite sequence or curriculum of training environments at the frontier of the learning agent's capabilities. Through extensive empirical studies and theoretical arguments founded on minimax-regret decision theory and game theory, the findings in this thesis show that UED autocurricula can produce RL agents exhibiting significantly improved robustness and generalization to previously unseen environment instances. Such autocurricula are promising paths toward open-ended learning systems that achieve more general intelligence by continually generating and mastering additional challenges of their own design.
Is Feedback All You Need? Leveraging Natural Language Feedback in Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning
McCallum, Sabrina, Taylor-Davies, Max, Albrecht, Stefano V., Suglia, Alessandro
Despite numerous successes, the field of reinforcement learning (RL) remains far from matching the impressive generalisation power of human behaviour learning. One possible way to help bridge this gap be to provide RL agents with richer, more human-like feedback expressed in natural language. To investigate this idea, we first extend BabyAI to automatically generate language feedback from the environment dynamics and goal condition success. Then, we modify the Decision Transformer architecture to take advantage of this additional signal. We find that training with language feedback either in place of or in addition to the return-to-go or goal descriptions improves agents' generalisation performance, and that agents can benefit from feedback even when this is only available during training, but not at inference.
A Block Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for Controllable Energy-based Text Generation
Forristal, Jarad, Mireshghallah, Niloofar, Durrett, Greg, Berg-Kirkpatrick, Taylor
Recent work has shown that energy-based language modeling is an effective framework for controllable text generation because it enables flexible integration of arbitrary discriminators. However, because energy-based LMs are globally normalized, approximate techniques like Metropolis-Hastings (MH) are required for inference. Past work has largely explored simple proposal distributions that modify a single token at a time, like in Gibbs sampling. In this paper, we develop a novel MH sampler that, in contrast, proposes re-writes of the entire sequence in each step via iterative prompting of a large language model. Our new sampler (a) allows for more efficient and accurate sampling from a target distribution and (b) allows generation length to be determined through the sampling procedure rather than fixed in advance, as past work has required. We perform experiments on two controlled generation tasks, showing both downstream performance gains and more accurate target distribution sampling in comparison with single-token proposal techniques.