Learning Graphical Models
A Scoping Review of Energy Load Disaggregation
Tolnai, Balázs András, Ma, Zheng, Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard
Energy load disaggregation can contribute to balancing power grids by enhancing the effectiveness of demand-side management and promoting electricity-saving behavior through increased consumer awareness. However, the field currently lacks a comprehensive overview. To address this gap, this paper con-ducts a scoping review of load disaggregation domains, data types, and methods, by assessing 72 full-text journal articles. The findings reveal that domestic electricity consumption is the most researched area, while others, such as industrial load disaggregation, are rarely discussed. The majority of research uses relatively low-frequency data, sampled between 1 and 60 seconds. A wide variety of methods are used, and artificial neural networks are the most common, followed by optimization strategies, Hidden Markov Models, and Graph Signal Processing approaches.
Transparency as Delayed Observability in Multi-Agent Systems
Dwarakanath, Kshama, Vyetrenko, Svitlana, Oyebode, Toks, Balch, Tucker
Is transparency always beneficial in complex systems such as traffic networks and stock markets? How is transparency defined in multi-agent systems, and what is its optimal degree at which social welfare is highest? We take an agent-based view to define transparency (or its lacking) as delay in agent observability of environment states, and utilize simulations to analyze the impact of delay on social welfare. To model the adaptation of agent strategies with varying delays, we model agents as learners maximizing the same objectives under different delays in a simulated environment. Focusing on two agent types - constrained and unconstrained, we use multi-agent reinforcement learning to evaluate the impact of delay on agent outcomes and social welfare. Empirical demonstration of our framework in simulated financial markets shows opposing trends in outcomes of the constrained and unconstrained agents with delay, with an optimal partial transparency regime at which social welfare is maximal.
CodePrompt: Improving Source Code-Related Classification with Knowledge Features through Prompt Learning
Ma, Yong, Luo, Senlin, Shang, Yu-Ming, Zhang, Yifei, Li, Zhengjun
Researchers have explored the potential of utilizing pre-trained language models, such as CodeBERT, to improve source code-related tasks. Previous studies have mainly relied on CodeBERT's text embedding capability and the `[CLS]' sentence embedding information as semantic representations for fine-tuning downstream source code-related tasks. However, these methods require additional neural network layers to extract effective features, resulting in higher computational costs. Furthermore, existing approaches have not leveraged the rich knowledge contained in both source code and related text, which can lead to lower accuracy. This paper presents a novel approach, CodePrompt, which utilizes rich knowledge recalled from a pre-trained model by prompt learning and an attention mechanism to improve source code-related classification tasks. Our approach initially motivates the language model with prompt information to retrieve abundant knowledge associated with the input as representative features, thus avoiding the need for additional neural network layers and reducing computational costs. Subsequently, we employ an attention mechanism to aggregate multiple layers of related knowledge for each task as final features to boost their accuracy. We conducted extensive experiments on four downstream source code-related tasks to evaluate our approach and our results demonstrate that CodePrompt achieves new state-of-the-art performance on the accuracy metric while also exhibiting computation cost-saving capabilities.
Closed-Form Interpretation of Neural Network Classifiers with Symbolic Regression Gradients
I introduce a unified framework for interpreting neural network classifiers tailored toward automated scientific discovery. In contrast to neural network-based regression, for classification, it is in general impossible to find a one-to-one mapping from the neural network to a symbolic equation even if the neural network itself bases its classification on a quantity that can be written as a closed-form equation. In this paper, I embed a trained neural network into an equivalence class of classifying functions that base their decisions on the same quantity. I interpret neural networks by finding an intersection between this equivalence class and human-readable equations defined by the search space of symbolic regression. The approach is not limited to classifiers or full neural networks and can be applied to arbitrary neurons in hidden layers or latent spaces or to simplify the process of interpreting neural network regressors.
Fully Decentralized Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: A Survey
Jiang, Jiechuan, Su, Kefan, Lu, Zongqing
Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning is a powerful tool to solve many real-world cooperative tasks, but restrictions of real-world applications may require training the agents in a fully decentralized manner. Due to the lack of information about other agents, it is challenging to derive algorithms that can converge to the optimal joint policy in a fully decentralized setting. Thus, this research area has not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we seek to systematically review the fully decentralized methods in two settings: maximizing a shared reward of all agents and maximizing the sum of individual rewards of all agents, and discuss open questions and future research directions.
Hierarchical Causal Models
Weinstein, Eli N., Blei, David M.
Scientists often want to learn about cause and effect from hierarchical data, collected from subunits nested inside units. Consider students in schools, cells in patients, or cities in states. In such settings, unit-level variables (e.g. each school's budget) may affect subunit-level variables (e.g. the test scores of each student in each school) and vice versa. To address causal questions with hierarchical data, we propose hierarchical causal models, which extend structural causal models and causal graphical models by adding inner plates. We develop a general graphical identification technique for hierarchical causal models that extends do-calculus. We find many situations in which hierarchical data can enable causal identification even when it would be impossible with non-hierarchical data, that is, if we had only unit-level summaries of subunit-level variables (e.g. the school's average test score, rather than each student's score). We develop estimation techniques for hierarchical causal models, using methods including hierarchical Bayesian models. We illustrate our results in simulation and via a reanalysis of the classic "eight schools" study.
Taming "data-hungry" reinforcement learning? Stability in continuous state-action spaces
Duan, Yaqi, Wainwright, Martin J.
We introduce a novel framework for analyzing reinforcement learning (RL) in continuous state-action spaces, and use it to prove fast rates of convergence in both off-line and on-line settings. Our analysis highlights two key stability properties, relating to how changes in value functions and/or policies affect the Bellman operator and occupation measures. We argue that these properties are satisfied in many continuous state-action Markov decision processes, and demonstrate how they arise naturally when using linear function approximation methods. Our analysis offers fresh perspectives on the roles of pessimism and optimism in off-line and on-line RL, and highlights the connection between off-line RL and transfer learning.
Non-separable Covariance Kernels for Spatiotemporal Gaussian Processes based on a Hybrid Spectral Method and the Harmonic Oscillator
Gaussian processes provide a flexible, non-parametric framework for the approximation of functions in high-dimensional spaces. The covariance kernel is the main engine of Gaussian processes, incorporating correlations that underpin the predictive distribution. For applications with spatiotemporal datasets, suitable kernels should model joint spatial and temporal dependence. Separable space-time covariance kernels offer simplicity and computational efficiency. However, non-separable kernels include space-time interactions that better capture observed correlations. Most non-separable kernels that admit explicit expressions are based on mathematical considerations (admissibility conditions) rather than first-principles derivations. We present a hybrid spectral approach for generating covariance kernels which is based on physical arguments. We use this approach to derive a new class of physically motivated, non-separable covariance kernels which have their roots in the stochastic, linear, damped, harmonic oscillator (LDHO). The new kernels incorporate functions with both monotonic and oscillatory decay of space-time correlations. The LDHO covariance kernels involve space-time interactions which are introduced by dispersion relations that modulate the oscillator coefficients. We derive explicit relations for the spatiotemporal covariance kernels in the three oscillator regimes (underdamping, critical damping, overdamping) and investigate their properties. We further illustrate the hybrid spectral method by deriving covariance kernels that are based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.
Make Prompts Adaptable: Bayesian Modeling for Vision-Language Prompt Learning with Data-Dependent Prior
Cho, Youngjae, Bae, HeeSun, Shin, Seungjae, Youn, Yeo Dong, Joo, Weonyoung, Moon, Il-Chul
Recent Vision-Language Pretrained (VLP) models have become the backbone for many downstream tasks, but they are utilized as frozen model without learning. Prompt learning is a method to improve the pre-trained VLP model by adding a learnable context vector to the inputs of the text encoder. In a few-shot learning scenario of the downstream task, MLE training can lead the context vector to over-fit dominant image features in the training data. This overfitting can potentially harm the generalization ability, especially in the presence of a distribution shift between the training and test dataset. This paper presents a Bayesian-based framework of prompt learning, which could alleviate the overfitting issues on few-shot learning application and increase the adaptability of prompts on unseen instances. Specifically, modeling data-dependent prior enhances the adaptability of text features for both seen and unseen image features without the trade-off of performance between them. Based on the Bayesian framework, we utilize the Wasserstein Gradient Flow in the estimation of our target posterior distribution, which enables our prompt to be flexible in capturing the complex modes of image features. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on benchmark datasets for several experiments by showing statistically significant improvements on performance compared to existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/youngjae-cho/APP.
Probabilistic emotion and sentiment modelling of patient-reported experiences
Murray, Curtis, Mitchell, Lewis, Tuke, Jonathan, Mackay, Mark
This study introduces a novel methodology for modelling patient emotions from online patient experience narratives. We employed metadata network topic modelling to analyse patient-reported experiences from Care Opinion, revealing key emotional themes linked to patient-caregiver interactions and clinical outcomes. We develop a probabilistic, context-specific emotion recommender system capable of predicting both multilabel emotions and binary sentiments using a naive Bayes classifier using contextually meaningful topics as predictors. The superior performance of our predicted emotions under this model compared to baseline models was assessed using the information retrieval metrics nDCG and Q-measure, and our predicted sentiments achieved an F1 score of 0.921, significantly outperforming standard sentiment lexicons. This method offers a transparent, cost-effective way to understand patient feedback, enhancing traditional collection methods and informing individualised patient care. Our findings are accessible via an R package and interactive dashboard, providing valuable tools for healthcare researchers and practitioners.