Ecological rationality refers to the notion that humans are rational agents adapted to their environment. However, testing this theory remains challenging due to two reasons: the difficulty in defining what tasks are ecologically valid and building rational models for these tasks. In this work, we demonstrate that large language models can generate cognitive tasks, specifically category learning tasks, that match the statistics of real-world tasks, thereby addressing the first challenge. We tackle the second challenge by deriving rational agents adapted to these tasks using the framework of meta-learning, leading to a class of models called ecologically rational meta-learned inference (ERMI). ERMI quantitatively explains human data better than seven other cognitive models in two different experiments. It additionally matches human behavior on a qualitative level: (1) it finds the same tasks difficult that humans find difficult, (2) it becomes more reliant on an exemplar-based strategy for assigning categories with learning, and (3) it generalizes to unseen stimuli in a human-like way. Furthermore, we show that ERMI's ecologically valid priors allow it to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the OpenML-CC18 classification benchmark.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated proficiency in their reasoning abilities, yet their large size presents scalability challenges and limits any further customization. In contrast, compact models offer customized training but often fall short in solving complex reasoning tasks. This study focuses on distilling the LLMs' decomposition skills into compact models using offline reinforcement learning. We leverage the advancements in the LLM's capabilities to provide feedback and generate a specialized task-specific dataset for training compact models. These models not only excel at straightforward tasks such as summarization and sentiment analysis but, with adept prompting, demonstrate proficiency in handling reasoning tasks that demand mathematical and logical abilities (Huang & Chang, 2022). Notably, Chain-of-Thoughts (CoT) prompting (Wei et al., 2022) and its variations (Kojima et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2022) have proven to be promising and relatively simple techniques for enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities. Within the realm of complex reasoning, the ability to decompose intricate questions into a set of simpler sub-questions represents a crucial and understudied component (Shridhar et al., 2022). While existing works predominantly focus on end-to-end solutions for reasoning (Zhou et al., 2022; Lyu et al., 2023), the specific aspect of breaking down complex questions into simpler components has received limited attention. The creation of specialized datasets and benchmarks is integral to advancing the field of Deep Learning (Guss et al., 2019; Vinyals et al., 2019; Fu et al., 2020; Kurenkov et al., 2023). This work addresses the gap in understanding and exploration of the reasoning subquestioning process by providing a dataset and baselines for further research in this direction. Compounding the challenge is the computational overhead associated with large model sizes, making reasoning tasks computationally expensive and time-consuming when tuning models. Concurrently, approaches similar to Chain-of-Thoughts (CoT) may incur expenses, given that models with superior reasoning abilities are not available for free. In response, distilling distinct components of the reasoning process into smaller models emerges as a promising avenue for research.

The expected loss is an upper bound to the model generalization error which admits robust PAC-Bayes bounds for learning. However, loss minimization is known to ignore misspecification, where models cannot exactly reproduce observations. This leads to significant underestimates of parameter uncertainties in the large data, or underparameterized, limit. We analyze the generalization error of near-deterministic, misspecified and underparametrized surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show posterior distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergent generalization error and derive an ensemble {ansatz} that respects this constraint, which for linear models incurs minimal overhead. The efficient approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to high dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Parameter uncertainties from misspecification survive in the underparametrized limit, giving accurate prediction and bounding of test errors.

Bayesian optimisation requires fitting a Gaussian process model, which in turn requires specifying hyperparameters - most of the theoretical literature assumes those hyperparameters are known. The commonly used maximum likelihood estimator for hyperparameters of the Gaussian process is consistent only if the data fills the space uniformly, which does not have to be the case in Bayesian optimisation. Since no guarantees exist regarding the correctness of hyperparameter estimation, and those hyperparameters can significantly affect the Gaussian process fit, theoretical analysis of Bayesian optimisation with unknown hyperparameters is very challenging. Previously proposed algorithms with the no-regret property were only able to handle the special case of unknown lengthscales, reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm and applied only to the frequentist case. We propose a novel algorithm, HE-GP-UCB, which is the first algorithm enjoying the no-regret property in the case of unknown hyperparameters of arbitrary form, and which supports both Bayesian and frequentist settings. Our proof idea is novel and can easily be extended to other variants of Bayesian optimisation. We show this by extending our algorithm to the adversarially robust optimisation setting under unknown hyperparameters. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithm on a set of toy problems and show that it can outperform the maximum likelihood estimator.

Compositional generalization is one of the main properties which differentiates lexical learning in humans from state-of-art neural networks. We propose a general framework for building models that can generalize compositionally using the concept of Generalized Grammar Rules (GGRs), a class of symmetry-based compositional constraints for transduction tasks, which we view as a transduction analogue of equivariance constraints in physics-inspired tasks. Besides formalizing generalized notions of symmetry for language transduction, our framework is general enough to contain many existing works as special cases. We present ideas on how GGRs might be implemented, and in the process draw connections to reinforcement learning and other areas of research.

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between weight and function space, uncovering a systematic link between overparameterization and the difficulty of the sampling problem. Through extensive experiments, we establish practical guidelines for sampling and convergence diagnosis. As a result, we present a Bayesian deep ensemble approach as an effective solution with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.

In practical statistical causal discovery (SCD), embedding domain expert knowledge as constraints into the algorithm is widely accepted as significant for creating consistent meaningful causal models, despite the recognized challenges in systematic acquisition of the background knowledge. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology for causal inference, in which SCD methods and knowledge based causal inference (KBCI) with a large language model (LLM) are synthesized through "statistical causal prompting (SCP)" for LLMs and prior knowledge augmentation for SCD. Experiments have revealed that GPT-4 can cause the output of the LLM-KBCI and the SCD result with prior knowledge from LLM-KBCI to approach the ground truth, and that the SCD result can be further improved, if GPT-4 undergoes SCP. Furthermore, it has been clarified that an LLM can improve SCD with its background knowledge, even if the LLM does not contain information on the dataset. The proposed approach can thus address challenges such as dataset biases and limitations, illustrating the potential of LLMs to improve data-driven causal inference across diverse scientific domains.

This stochastic filtering approach is especially appealing for the control of such partially observed dynamical systems. This includes among others, e.g., control problems This work proposes a decision-making framework with noisy sensor measurements, such as grasping for partially observable systems in continuous and navigation in robotics (Kurniawati et al., 2008) or time with discrete state and action cognitive medium access control (Zhao et al., 2005) for spaces. As optimal decision-making becomes communication systems. For finding decision strategies, intractable for large state spaces we employ which use the available observational data to control approximation methods for the filtering and the system at hand, a solid framework can be found the control problem that scale well with an increasing in the area of optimal control (Stengel, 1994).

Self-supervised learning (SSL) learns representations by leveraging an auxiliary unsupervised task, such as classifying semantically related samples, e.g. different data augmentations or modalities. Of the many approaches to SSL, contrastive methods, e.g. SimCLR, CLIP and VicREG, have gained attention for learning representations that achieve downstream performance close to that of supervised learning. However, a theoretical understanding of the mechanism behind these methods eludes. We propose a generative latent variable model for the data and show that several families of discriminative self-supervised algorithms, including contrastive methods, approximately induce its latent structure over representations, providing a unifying theoretical framework. We also justify links to mutual information and the use of a projection head. Fitting our model generatively, as SimVE, improves performance over previous VAE methods on common benchmarks (e.g. FashionMNIST, CIFAR10, CelebA), narrows the gap to discriminative methods on _content_ classification and, as our analysis predicts, outperforms them where _style_ information is required, taking a step toward task-agnostic representations.

Distributed learning is an effective approach to accelerate model training using multiple workers. However, substantial communication delays emerge between workers and a parameter server due to massive costs associated with communicating gradients. SignSGD with majority voting (signSGD-MV) is a simple yet effective optimizer that reduces communication costs through one-bit quantization, yet the convergence rates considerably decrease as adversarial workers increase. In this paper, we show that the convergence rate is invariant as the number of adversarial workers increases, provided that the number of adversarial workers is smaller than that of benign workers. The key idea showing this counter-intuitive result is our novel signSGD with federated defense (signSGD-FD). Unlike the traditional approaches, signSGD-FD exploits the gradient information sent by adversarial workers with the proper weights, which are obtained through gradient sign decoding. Experimental results demonstrate signSGD-FD achieves superior convergence rates over traditional algorithms in various adversarial attack scenarios.