In online randomized experiments or A/B tests, accurate predictions of participant inclusion rates are of paramount importance. These predictions not only guide experimenters in optimizing the experiment's duration but also enhance the precision of treatment effect estimates. In this paper we present a novel, straightforward, and scalable Bayesian nonparametric approach for predicting the rate at which individuals will be exposed to interventions within the realm of online A/B testing. Our approach stands out by offering dual prediction capabilities--it forecasts both the quantity of new customers expected in future time windows and, unlike available alternative methods, the number of times they will be observed. We derive closedform expressions for the posterior distributions of the quantities needed to form predictions about future user activity, thereby bypassing the need for numerical algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. After a comprehensive exposition of our model, we test its performance on experiments on real and simulated data, where we show its superior performance with respect to existing alternatives in the literature. 1 Introduction The problem of predicting the size of a population from which random samples are drawn has a long history in the statistics literature. Originally motivated by applications in ecology, where the goal is typically to determine the number of distinct species of animals within a population (Fisher et al., 1943; Good, 1953; Burnham and Overton, 1979), a variation of this problem has recently received considerable attention also in the genomics literature, where scientists are interested in predicting the number of future rare variants to be observed within a genomic study (Ionita-Laza et al., 2009; Zou et al., 2016; Chakraborty et al., 2019; Masoero et al., 2022).

As machine learning models in critical fields increasingly grapple with multimodal data, they face the dual challenges of handling a wide array of modalities, often incomplete due to missing elements, and the temporal irregularity and sparsity of collected samples. Successfully leveraging this complex data, while overcoming the scarcity of high-quality training samples, is key to improving these models' predictive performance. We introduce ``FuseMoE'', a mixture-of-experts framework incorporated with an innovative gating function. Designed to integrate a diverse number of modalities, FuseMoE is effective in managing scenarios with missing modalities and irregularly sampled data trajectories. Theoretically, our unique gating function contributes to enhanced convergence rates, leading to better performance in multiple downstream tasks. The practical utility of FuseMoE in real world is validated by a challenging set of clinical risk prediction tasks.

We develop a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithm to minimize the total energy consumption of multiple massive MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) base stations (BSs) in a multi-cell network while preserving the overall quality-of-service (QoS) by making decisions on the multi-level advanced sleep modes (ASMs) and antenna switching of these BSs. The problem is modeled as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP) to enable collaboration between individual BSs, which is necessary to tackle inter-cell interference. A multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) algorithm is designed to learn a collaborative BS control policy. To enhance its scalability, a modified version called MAPPO-neighbor policy is further proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the trained MAPPO agent achieves better performance compared to baseline policies. Specifically, compared to the auto sleep mode 1 (symbol-level sleeping) algorithm, the MAPPO-neighbor policy reduces power consumption by approximately 8.7% during low-traffic hours and improves energy efficiency by approximately 19% during high-traffic hours, respectively.

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian learning model to understand the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs). We explore the optimization metric of LLMs, which is based on predicting the next token, and develop a novel model grounded in this principle. Our approach involves constructing an ideal generative text model represented by a multinomial transition probability matrix with a prior, and we examine how LLMs approximate this matrix. We discuss the continuity of the mapping between embeddings and multinomial distributions, and present the Dirichlet approximation theorem to approximate any prior. Additionally, we demonstrate how text generation by LLMs aligns with Bayesian learning principles and delve into the implications for in-context learning, specifically explaining why in-context learning emerges in larger models where prompts are considered as samples to be updated. Our findings indicate that the behavior of LLMs is consistent with Bayesian Learning, offering new insights into their functioning and potential applications.

Despite deep learning's widespread success, its data-hungry and computationally expensive nature makes it impractical for many data-constrained real-world applications. Few-Shot Learning (FSL) aims to address these limitations by enabling rapid adaptation to novel learning tasks, seeing significant growth in recent years. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the field's latest advancements. Initially, FSL is formally defined, and its relationship with different learning fields is presented. A novel taxonomy is introduced, extending previously proposed ones, and real-world applications in classic and novel fields are described. Finally, recent trends shaping the field, outstanding challenges, and promising future research directions are discussed.

The inadequate mixing of conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for multi-modal distributions presents a significant challenge in practical applications such as Bayesian inference and molecular dynamics. Addressing this, we propose Diffusive Gibbs Sampling (DiGS), an innovative family of sampling methods designed for effective sampling from distributions characterized by distant and disconnected modes. DiGS integrates recent developments in diffusion models, leveraging Gaussian convolution to create an auxiliary noisy distribution that bridges isolated modes in the original space and applying Gibbs sampling to alternately draw samples from both spaces. Our approach exhibits a better mixing property for sampling multi-modal distributions than state-of-the-art methods such as parallel tempering. We demonstrate that our sampler attains substantially improved results across various tasks, including mixtures of Gaussians, Bayesian neural networks and molecular dynamics.

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in mapping data from different domains to graph structures. Among others, neural network models such as the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) can be modeled as graphs. In fact, MLPs can be represented as directed acyclic graphs. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have recently become the standard tool for performing machine learning tasks on graphs. In this work, we show that an MLP is equivalent to an asynchronous message passing GNN model which operates on the MLP's graph representation. We then propose a new machine learning model for tabular data, the so-called Graph Neural Machine (GNM), which replaces the MLP's directed acyclic graph with a nearly complete graph and which employs a synchronous message passing scheme. We show that a single GNM model can simulate multiple MLP models. We evaluate the proposed model in several classification and regression datasets. In most cases, the GNM model outperforms the MLP architecture.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with adaptive steps is now widely used for training deep neural networks. Most theoretical results assume access to unbiased gradient estimators, which is not the case in several recent deep learning and reinforcement learning applications that use Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a comprehensive non-asymptotic analysis of SGD with biased gradients and adaptive steps for convex and non-convex smooth functions. Our study incorporates time-dependent bias and emphasizes the importance of controlling the bias and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of the gradient estimator. In particular, we establish that Adagrad and RMSProp with biased gradients converge to critical points for smooth non-convex functions at a rate similar to existing results in the literature for the unbiased case. Finally, we provide experimental results using Variational Autoenconders (VAE) that illustrate our convergence results and show how the effect of bias can be reduced by appropriate hyperparameter tuning.

There has been a long-standing and widespread belief that Bayesian Optimization (BO) with standard Gaussian process (GP), referred to as standard BO, is ineffective in high-dimensional optimization problems. This perception may partly stem from the intuition that GPs struggle with high-dimensional inputs for covariance modeling and function estimation. While these concerns seem reasonable, empirical evidence supporting this belief is lacking. In this paper, we systematically investigated BO with standard GP regression across a variety of synthetic and real-world benchmark problems for high-dimensional optimization. Surprisingly, the performance with standard GP consistently ranks among the best, often outperforming existing BO methods specifically designed for high-dimensional optimization by a large margin. Contrary to the stereotype, we found that standard GP can serve as a capable surrogate for learning high-dimensional target functions. Without strong structural assumptions, BO with standard GP not only excels in high-dimensional optimization but also proves robust in accommodating various structures within the target functions. Furthermore, with standard GP, achieving promising optimization performance is possible by only using maximum likelihood estimation, eliminating the need for expensive Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling that might be required by more complex surrogate models. We thus advocate for a re-evaluation and in-depth study of the potential of standard BO in addressing high-dimensional problems.

Stochastic approximation is a class of algorithms that update a vector iteratively, incrementally, and stochastically, including, e.g., stochastic gradient descent and temporal difference learning. One fundamental challenge in analyzing a stochastic approximation algorithm is to establish its stability, i.e., to show that the stochastic vector iterates are bounded almost surely. In this paper, we extend the celebrated Borkar-Meyn theorem for stability from the Martingale difference noise setting to the Markovian noise setting, which greatly improves its applicability in reinforcement learning, especially in those off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms with linear function approximation and eligibility traces. Central to our analysis is the diminishing asymptotic rate of change of a few functions, which is implied by both a form of strong law of large numbers and a commonly used V4 Lyapunov drift condition and trivially holds if the Markov chain is finite and irreducible.