Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Consider a predictor, a learner, whose input is a stream of discrete items. The predictor's task, at every time point, is probabilistic multiclass prediction, i.e., to predict which item may occur next by outputting zero or more candidate items, each with a probability, after which the actual item is revealed and the predictor learns from this observation. To output probabilities, the predictor keeps track of the proportions of the items it has seen. The predictor has constant (limited) space and we seek efficient prediction and update techniques: The stream is unbounded, the set of items is unknown to the predictor and their totality can also grow unbounded. Moreover, there is non-stationarity: the underlying frequencies of items may change, substantially, from time to time. For instance, new items may start appearing and a few currently frequent items may cease to occur again. The predictor, being space-bounded, need only provide probabilities for those items with (currently) sufficiently high frequency, i.e., the salient items. This problem is motivated in the setting of prediction games, a self-supervised learning regime where concepts serve as both the predictors and the predictands, and the set of concepts grows over time, resulting in non-stationarities as new concepts are generated and used. We develop moving average techniques designed to respond to such non-stationarities in a timely manner, and explore their properties. One is a simple technique based on queuing of count snapshots, and another is a combination of queuing together with an extended version of sparse EMA. The latter combination supports predictand-specific dynamic learning rates. We find that this flexibility allows for a more accurate and timely convergence.

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as the tabular setting or for linear dynamical systems with gaussian noise. In this work, we propose a new class of filters based on Gaussian PSD Models, which offer several advantages in terms of density approximation and computational efficiency. We show that filtering can be efficiently performed in closed form when transitions and observations are Gaussian PSD Models. When the transition and observations are approximated by Gaussian PSD Models, we show that our proposed estimator enjoys strong theoretical guarantees, with estimation error that depends on the quality of the approximation and is adaptive to the regularity of the transition probabilities. In particular, we identify regimes in which our proposed filter attains a TV $\epsilon$-error with memory and computational complexity of $O(\epsilon^{-1})$ and $O(\epsilon^{-3/2})$ respectively, including the offline learning step, in contrast to the $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ complexity of sampling methods such as particle filtering.

Policy Optimization (PO) algorithms are a class of methods in Reinforcement Learning(RL; Sutton and Barto, 2018; Mannor et al., 2022) where the agent's policy is iteratively updated according to the (possibly preconditioned) gradient of the value function w.r.t.

The tokamak offers a promising path to fusion energy, but plasma disruptions pose a major economic risk, motivating considerable advances in disruption avoidance. This work develops a reinforcement learning approach to this problem by training a policy to safely ramp-down the plasma current while avoiding limits on a number of quantities correlated with disruptions. The policy training environment is a hybrid physics and machine learning model trained on simulations of the SPARC primary reference discharge (PRD) ramp-down, an upcoming burning plasma scenario which we use as a testbed. To address physics uncertainty and model inaccuracies, the simulation environment is massively parallelized on GPU with randomized physics parameters during policy training. The trained policy is then successfully transferred to a higher fidelity simulator where it successfully ramps down the plasma while avoiding user-specified disruptive limits. We also address the crucial issue of safety criticality by demonstrating that a constraint-conditioned policy can be used as a trajectory design assistant to design a library of feed-forward trajectories to handle different physics conditions and user settings. As a library of trajectories is more interpretable and verifiable offline, we argue such an approach is a promising path for leveraging the capabilities of reinforcement learning in the safety-critical context of burning plasma tokamaks. Finally, we demonstrate how the training environment can be a useful platform for other feed-forward optimization approaches by using an evolutionary algorithm to perform optimization of feed-forward trajectories that are robust to physics uncertainty.

In this work, we develop a graphical model to capture team dynamics. We analyze the model and show how to learn its parameters from data. Using our model we study the phenomenon of team collapse from a computational perspective. We use simulations and real-world experiments to find the main causes of team collapse. We also provide the principles of building resilient teams, i.e., teams that avoid collapsing. Finally, we use our model to analyze the structure of NBA teams and dive deeper into games of interest.

Deep reinforcement learning has demonstrated remarkable achievements across diverse domains such as video games, robotic control, autonomous driving, and drug discovery. Common methodologies in partially-observable domains largely lean on end-to-end learning from high-dimensional observations, such as images, without explicitly reasoning about true state. We suggest an alternative direction, introducing the Partially Supervised Reinforcement Learning (PSRL) framework. At the heart of PSRL is the fusion of both supervised and unsupervised learning. The approach leverages a state estimator to distill supervised semantic state information from high-dimensional observations which are often fully observable at training time. This yields more interpretable policies that compose state predictions with control. In parallel, it captures an unsupervised latent representation. These two-the semantic state and the latent state-are then fused and utilized as inputs to a policy network. This juxtaposition offers practitioners a flexible and dynamic spectrum: from emphasizing supervised state information to integrating richer, latent insights. Extensive experimental results indicate that by merging these dual representations, PSRL offers a potent balance, enhancing model interpretability while preserving, and often significantly outperforming, the performance benchmarks set by traditional methods in terms of reward and convergence speed.

Background: Postpartum urinary incontinence (PUI) is a common issue among postnatal women. Previous studies identified potential related variables, but lacked analysis on certain intrinsic and extrinsic patient variables during pregnancy. Objective: The study aims to evaluate the most influential variables in PUI using machine learning, focusing on intrinsic, extrinsic, and combined variable groups. Methods: Data from 93 pregnant women were analyzed using machine learning and oversampling techniques. Four key variables were predicted: occurrence, frequency, intensity of urinary incontinence, and stress urinary incontinence. Results: Models using extrinsic variables were most accurate, with 70% accuracy for urinary incontinence, 77% for frequency, 71% for intensity, and 93% for stress urinary incontinence. Conclusions: The study highlights extrinsic variables as significant predictors of PUI issues. This suggests that PUI prevention might be achievable through healthy habits during pregnancy, although further research is needed for confirmation.

This paper considers the challenges that Large Language Models (LLMs) face when reasoning over text that includes information involving uncertainty explicitly quantified via probability values. This type of reasoning is relevant to a variety of contexts ranging from everyday conversations to medical decision-making. Despite improvements in the mathematical reasoning capabilities of LLMs, they still exhibit significant difficulties when it comes to probabilistic reasoning. To deal with this problem, we first introduce the Bayesian Linguistic Inference Dataset (BLInD), a new dataset specifically designed to test the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. We then leverage this new dataset to thoroughly illustrate the specific limitations of LLMs for tasks involving probabilistic reasoning and present several strategies that map the problem to different formal representations, including Python code, probabilistic inference algorithms, and probabilistic logical programming. We Figure 1: An example from the BLInD dataset including conclude by providing an evaluation of our methods an underlying Bayesian network, its textual description, and on BLInD and on an adaptation of a causal reasoning probabilistic queries in natural language.

We introduce squared neural Poisson point processes (SNEPPPs) by parameterising the intensity function by the squared norm of a two layer neural network. When the hidden layer is fixed and the second layer has a single neuron, our approach resembles previous uses of squared Gaussian process or kernel methods, but allowing the hidden layer to be learnt allows for additional flexibility. In many cases of interest, the integrated intensity function admits a closed form and can be computed in quadratic time in the number of hidden neurons. We enumerate a far more extensive number of such cases than has previously been discussed. Our approach is more memory and time efficient than naive implementations of squared or exponentiated kernel methods or Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates in a reparameterisation of the final layer of the intensity function can be obtained by solving a (strongly) convex optimisation problem using projected gradient descent. We demonstrate SNEPPPs on real, and synthetic benchmarks, and provide a software implementation. https://github.com/RussellTsuchida/snefy