The framework of the Configurable Markov Decision Processes (Conf-MDPs, Metelli et al., 2018, 2019, 2022) has been introduced in recent years to model a wide range of real-world scenarios in which an agent has the opportunity to alter some environmental parameters in order to improve its learning experience. Conf-MDPs can be thought to as an extension of the traditional Markov Decision Processes (MDP, Puterman, 1994) to account for scenarios that emerge quite often in the Reinforcement Learning (RL, Sutton and Barto, 2018) problems, in which the environment rarely represents an immutable entity and can, indeed, be subject to partial control. In the Conf-MDP framework, the activity of altering the environmental parameters is named environment configuration and serves different purposes. In the simplest scenario, the configuration is carried out by the agent itself that acts as a configurator. This might suggest, at a first sight, that environment configuration can be modeled within the agent actuation.

The original framework of Poole and Sato extended the logic programming language Prolog (Flach, 1994) with probabilistic facts. These are facts that are annotated with the probability that they are true; they play a role similar to the parentless nodes in Bayesian networks in that they are marginally independent of one another, and that the probabilistic dependencies are induced by the rules of the logic program. This resulted in the celebrated distribution semantics (Sato, 1995) that is the basis of probabilistic logic programming, and the corresponding learning algorithm in the PRISM language (Sato, 1995) constitutes - to the best of the authors' knowledge - the very first probabilistic programming language with built-in support for machine learning. The work of Sato and Poole has inspired many follow-up works on inference and learning, and has also introduced many variations and extensions of the probabilistic logic programming and its celebrated distribution semantics.

The multivariate hypergeometric distribution describes sampling without replacement from a discrete population of elements divided into multiple categories. Addressing a gap in the literature, we tackle the challenge of estimating discrete distributions when both the total population size and the sizes of its constituent categories are unknown. Here, we propose a novel solution using the hypergeometric likelihood to solve this estimation challenge, even in the presence of severe under-sampling. We develop our approach to account for a data generating process where the ground-truth is a mixture of distributions conditional on a continuous latent variable, such as with collaborative filtering, using the variational autoencoder framework. Empirical data simulation demonstrates that our method outperforms other likelihood functions used to model count data, both in terms of accuracy of population size estimate and in its ability to learn an informative latent space. We demonstrate our method's versatility through applications in NLP, by inferring and estimating the complexity of latent vocabularies in text excerpts, and in biology, by accurately recovering the true number of gene transcripts from sparse single-cell genomics data.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds promise as a technology that can be used to improve government and economic policy-making. This paper proposes a new research agenda towards this end by introducing Social Environment Design, a general framework for the use of AI for automated policy-making that connects with the Reinforcement Learning, EconCS, and Computational Social Choice communities. The framework seeks to capture general economic environments, includes voting on policy objectives, and gives a direction for the systematic analysis of government and economic policy through AI simulation. We highlight key open problems for future research in AI-based policy-making. By solving these challenges, we hope to achieve various social welfare objectives, thereby promoting more ethical and responsible decision making.

This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or heteroscedasticity. Unlike traditional neural networks that produce deterministic outputs, PNNs generate probability distributions for the target variable, allowing the determination of both predicted means and intervals in regression scenarios. Contributions of this paper include the development of a probabilistic distance metric to optimize PNN architecture, and the deployment of PNNs in controlled data sets as well as a practical material science case involving fiber-reinforced composites. The findings confirm that PNNs effectively model aleatoric uncertainty, proving to be more appropriate than the commonly employed Gaussian process regression for this purpose. Specifically, in a real-world scientific machine learning context, PNNs yield remarkably accurate output mean estimates with R-squared scores approaching 0.97, and their predicted intervals exhibit a high correlation coefficient of nearly 0.80, closely matching observed data intervals. Hence, this research contributes to the ongoing exploration of leveraging the sophisticated representational capacity of neural networks to delineate complex input-output relationships in scientific problems.

The denoising diffusion model emerges recently as a powerful generative technique that converts noise into data. Theoretical convergence guarantee has been mainly studied for continuous-time diffusion models, and has been obtained for discrete-time diffusion models only for distributions with bounded support in the literature. In this paper, we establish the convergence guarantee for substantially larger classes of distributions under discrete-time diffusion models and further improve the convergence rate for distributions with bounded support. In particular, we first establish the convergence rates for both smooth and general (possibly non-smooth) distributions having finite second moment. We then specialize our results to a number of interesting classes of distributions with explicit parameter dependencies, including distributions with Lipschitz scores, Gaussian mixture distributions, and distributions with bounded support. We further propose a novel accelerated sampler and show that it improves the convergence rates of the corresponding regular sampler by orders of magnitude with respect to all system parameters. For distributions with bounded support, our result improves the dimensional dependence of the previous convergence rate by orders of magnitude. Our study features a novel analysis technique that constructs tilting factor representation of the convergence error and exploits Tweedie's formula for handling Taylor expansion power terms.

The American Statistical Association (ASA) statement on statistical significance and P-values \cite{wasserstein2016asa} cautioned statisticians against making scientific decisions solely on the basis of traditional P-values. The statement delineated key issues with P-values, including a lack of transparency, an inability to quantify evidence in support of the null hypothesis, and an inability to measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result. In this article, we demonstrate that the interval null hypothesis framework (instead of the point null hypothesis framework), when used in tandem with Bayes factor-based tests, is instrumental in circumnavigating the key issues of P-values. Further, we note that specifying prior densities for Bayes factors is challenging and has been a reason for criticism of Bayesian hypothesis testing in existing literature. We address this by adapting Bayes factors directly based on common test statistics. We demonstrate, through numerical experiments and real data examples, that the proposed Bayesian interval hypothesis testing procedures can be calibrated to ensure frequentist error control while retaining their inherent interpretability. Finally, we illustrate the improved flexibility and applicability of the proposed methods by providing coherent frameworks for competitive landscape analysis and end-to-end Bayesian hypothesis tests in the context of reporting clinical trial outcomes.

The proposed solver is based on the Ohzeki method that combines Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) and gradient descent, and its step sizes are trained by minimizing a loss function. In the training process, we propose a sampling-based gradient estimation that substitutes auto-differentiation with a variance estimation, thereby circumventing the failure of back propagation due to the non-differentiability of MCMC. The numerical results for a few COPs demonstrated that the proposed solver significantly accelerated the convergence speed compared with the original Ohzeki method. Combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) comprising discrete variables are considered hard to solve exactly in polynomial time, which relates to the well-known P vs. NP problem. Along with deterministic approximation algorithms, samplers such as Markovchain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) have been applied to COPs. However, the convergence time for obtaining reasonable approximate solutions is long.

Modern language models rely on the transformer architecture and attention mechanism to perform language understanding and text generation. In this work, we study learning a 1-layer self-attention model from a set of prompts and associated output data sampled from the model. We first establish a precise mapping between the self-attention mechanism and Markov models: Inputting a prompt to the model samples the output token according to a context-conditioned Markov chain (CCMC) which weights the transition matrix of a base Markov chain. Additionally, incorporating positional encoding results in position-dependent scaling of the transition probabilities. Building on this formalism, we develop identifiability/coverage conditions for the prompt distribution that guarantee consistent estimation and establish sample complexity guarantees under IID samples. Finally, we study the problem of learning from a single output trajectory generated from an initial prompt. We characterize an intriguing winner-takes-all phenomenon where the generative process implemented by self-attention collapses into sampling a limited subset of tokens due to its non-mixing nature. This provides a mathematical explanation to the tendency of modern LLMs to generate repetitive text. In summary, the equivalence to CCMC provides a simple but powerful framework to study self-attention and its properties.

Interpretability methods that utilise local surrogate models (e.g. LIME) are very good at describing the behaviour of the predictive model at a point of interest, but they are not guaranteed to extrapolate to the local region surrounding the point. However, overfitting to the local curvature of the predictive model and malicious tampering can significantly limit extrapolation. We propose an anchor-based algorithm for identifying regions in which local explanations are guaranteed to be correct by explicitly describing those intervals along which the input features can be trusted. Our method produces an interpretable feature-aligned box where the prediction of the local surrogate model is guaranteed to match the predictive model. We demonstrate that our algorithm can be used to find explanations with larger guarantee regions that better cover the data manifold compared to existing baselines. We also show how our method can identify misleading local explanations with significantly poorer guarantee regions.