We present the Streaming Gaussian Dirichlet Random Field (S-GDRF) model, a novel approach for modeling a stream of spatiotemporally distributed, sparse, high-dimensional categorical observations. The proposed approach efficiently learns global and local patterns in spatiotemporal data, allowing for fast inference and querying with a bounded time complexity. Using a high-resolution data series of plankton images classified with a neural network, we demonstrate the ability of the approach to make more accurate predictions compared to a Variational Gaussian Process (VGP), and to learn a predictive distribution of observations from streaming categorical data. S-GDRFs open the door to enabling efficient informative path planning over high-dimensional categorical observations, which until now has not been feasible.

In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional forecasting methods concentrate on the short-term dynamics of time series data, GPs offer the potential to forecast not just the average prediction but the entire probability distribution over a future trajectory. This is particularly beneficial in financial contexts, where accurate predictions alone may not suffice if incorrect volatility assessments lead to capital losses. Moreover, in trade selection, GPs allow for the forecasting of multiple Sharpe ratios adjusted for transaction costs, aiding in decision-making. The functional data representation utilized in this study enables longer-term predictions by leveraging information from previous years, even as the forecast moves away from the current year's training data. Additionally, the augmented representation enriches the training set by incorporating multiple targets for future points in time, facilitating long-term predictions. Our implementation closely aligns with the methodology outlined in [1], which assessed effectiveness on commodity futures. However, our testing methodology differs. Instead of real data, we employ simulated data with similar characteristics. We construct a testing environment to evaluate both data representations and models under conditions of increasing noise, fat tails, and inappropriate kernels--conditions commonly encountered in practice. By simulating data, we can compare our forecast distribution over time against a full simulation of the actual distribution of our test set, thereby reducing the inherent uncertainty in testing time series models on real data. We enable feature prediction through augmentation and employ sub-sampling to ensure the feasibility of GPs. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the functional and augmented data representations, quantify the impact of noise and fat tails on these models, and identify scenarios where simpler models suffice. We explore the consequences of choosing an incorrect initial kernel and illustrate how functional augmentation can mitigate this issue under certain circumstances. Furthermore, we showcase how augmentation enhances predictive capability in scenarios with limited training data and present innovative applications of augmented GP in trading exchange-traded futures.

We investigate both the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of likelihood-based methods for recovering a complex-valued signal from multiple sets of measurements, referred to as looks, affected by speckle (multiplicative) noise. Our theoretical contributions include establishing the first existing theoretical upper bound on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) of the maximum likelihood estimator under the deep image prior hypothesis. Our theoretical results capture the dependence of MSE upon the number of parameters in the deep image prior, the number of looks, the signal dimension, and the number of measurements per look. On the algorithmic side, we introduce the concept of bagged Deep Image Priors (Bagged-DIP) and integrate them with projected gradient descent. Furthermore, we show how employing Newton-Schulz algorithm for calculating matrix inverses within the iterations of PGD reduces the computational complexity of the algorithm. We will show that this method achieves the state-of-the-art performance.

Causal learning is a fundamental problem in statistics and science, offering insights into predicting the effects of unseen treatments on a system. Despite recent advances in this topic, most existing causal discovery algorithms operate under two key assumptions: (i) the underlying graph is acyclic, and (ii) the available data is complete. These assumptions can be problematic as many real-world systems contain feedback loops (e.g., biological systems), and practical scenarios frequently involve missing data. In this work, we propose a novel framework, named MissNODAGS, for learning cyclic causal graphs from partially missing data. Under the additive noise model, MissNODAGS learns the causal graph by alternating between imputing the missing data and maximizing the expected log-likelihood of the visible part of the data in each training step, following the principles of the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. Through synthetic experiments and real-world single-cell perturbation data, we demonstrate improved performance when compared to using state-of-the-art imputation techniques followed by causal learning on partially missing interventional data.

The leading strategy for analyzing unstructured data uses two steps. First, latent variables of economic interest are estimated with an upstream information retrieval model. Second, the estimates are treated as "data" in a downstream econometric model. We establish theoretical arguments for why this two-step strategy leads to biased inference in empirically plausible settings. More constructively, we propose a one-step strategy for valid inference that uses the upstream and downstream models jointly. The one-step strategy (i) substantially reduces bias in simulations; (ii) has quantitatively important effects in a leading application using CEO time-use data; and (iii) can be readily adapted by applied researchers.

Semi-supervised learning has received increasingly attention in statistics and machine learning. In semi-supervised learning settings, a labeled data set with both outcomes and covariates and an unlabeled data set with covariates only are collected. We consider an inference problem in semi-supervised settings where the outcome in the labeled data is binary and the labeled data is collected by case-control sampling. Case-control sampling is an effective sampling scheme for alleviating imbalance structure in binary data. Under the logistic model assumption, case-control data can still provide consistent estimator for the slope parameter of the regression model. However, the intercept parameter is not identifiable. Consequently, the marginal case proportion cannot be estimated from case-control data. We find out that with the availability of the unlabeled data, the intercept parameter can be identified in semi-supervised learning setting. We construct the likelihood function of the observed labeled and unlabeled data and obtain the maximum likelihood estimator via an iterative algorithm. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent, asymptotically normal, and semiparametrically efficient. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to show the finite sample performance of the proposed method. The results imply that the unlabeled data not only helps to identify the intercept but also improves the estimation efficiency of the slope parameter. Meanwhile, the marginal case proportion can be estimated accurately by the proposed method.

The pursuit of direct model equation discovery has been an ongoing and significant area of interest in scientific machine learning. The popular sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework [1] offers a promising approach to extract parsimonious equations directly from data. SINDy's promotion of parsimony by sparse regression allows for the identification of an interpretable model that balances accuracy with generalizability, while its simplicity leads to a relatively efficient and fast learning process compared to other machine learning techniques. The framework has been successfully applied in a variety of applications, such as model idenficiation in plasma physics [2], control engineering [3, 4], biological transport problems [5], socio-cognitive systems [6], epidemiology [7, 8] and turbulence modelling [9]. Furthermore, its remarkable extendibility has attracted a range of modifications, including the adaptation to discover partial differential equations [10], the extension to libraries of rational functions [11], the integration of ensembling techniques to improve data efficiency [12] and the use of weak formulations [13, 14] to avoid noise amplification when computing derivatives from discrete data. One major difficulty in using scientific machine learning methods in fields such as biophysics, ecology, and microbiology, is that measured data from these fields is often noisy and scarce.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a prominent particle-based variational inference method used for sampling a target distribution. SVGD has attracted interest for application in machine-learning techniques such as Bayesian inference. In this paper, we propose novel trainable algorithms that incorporate a deep-learning technique called deep unfolding,into SVGD. This approach facilitates the learning of the internal parameters of SVGD, thereby accelerating its convergence speed. To evaluate the proposed trainable SVGD algorithms, we conducted numerical simulations of three tasks: sampling a one-dimensional Gaussian mixture, performing Bayesian logistic regression, and learning Bayesian neural networks. The results show that our proposed algorithms exhibit faster convergence than the conventional variants of SVGD.

A universal feature of human societies is the adoption of systems of rules and norms in the service of cooperative ends. How can we build learning agents that do the same, so that they may flexibly cooperate with the human institutions they are embedded in? We hypothesize that agents can achieve this by assuming there exists a shared set of norms that most others comply with while pursuing their individual desires, even if they do not know the exact content of those norms. By assuming shared norms, a newly introduced agent can infer the norms of an existing population from observations of compliance and violation. Furthermore, groups of agents can converge to a shared set of norms, even if they initially diverge in their beliefs about what the norms are. This in turn enables the stability of the normative system: since agents can bootstrap common knowledge of the norms, this leads the norms to be widely adhered to, enabling new entrants to rapidly learn those norms. We formalize this framework in the context of Markov games and demonstrate its operation in a multi-agent environment via approximately Bayesian rule induction of obligative and prohibitive norms. Using our approach, agents are able to rapidly learn and sustain a variety of cooperative institutions, including resource management norms and compensation for pro-social labor, promoting collective welfare while still allowing agents to act in their own interests.

Hidden Markov Models with an underlying Mixture of Gaussian structure have proven effective in learning Human-Robot Interactions from demonstrations for various interactive tasks via Gaussian Mixture Regression. However, a mismatch occurs when segmenting the interaction using only the observed state of the human compared to the joint state of the human and the robot. To enhance this underlying segmentation and subsequently the predictive abilities of such Gaussian Mixture-based approaches, we take a hierarchical approach by learning an additional mixture distribution on the states at the transition boundary. This helps prevent misclassifications that usually occur in such states. We find that our framework improves the performance of the underlying Gaussian Mixture-based approach, which we evaluate on various interactive tasks such as handshaking and fistbumps.