Learning Graphical Models
Beyond Value-Function Gaps: Improved Instance-Dependent Regret Bounds for Episodic Reinforcement Learning
We provide improved gap-dependent regret bounds for reinforcement learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes. Compared to prior work, our bounds depend on alternative definitions of gaps. These definitions are based on the insight that, in order to achieve a favorable regret, an algorithm does not need to learn how to behave optimally in states that are not reached by an optimal policy. We prove tighter upper regret bounds for optimistic algorithms and accompany them with new information-theoretic lower bounds for a large class of MDPs. Our results show that optimistic algorithms can not achieve the information-theoretic lower bounds even in deterministic MDPs unless there is a unique optimal policy.
Statistical Mechanics of Dynamical System Identification
Klishin, Andrei A., Bakarji, Joseph, Kutz, J. Nathan, Manohar, Krithika
Recovering dynamical equations from observed noisy data is the central challenge of system identification. We develop a statistical mechanical approach to analyze sparse equation discovery algorithms, which typically balance data fit and parsimony through a trial-and-error selection of hyperparameters. In this framework, statistical mechanics offers tools to analyze the interplay between complexity and fitness, in analogy to that done between entropy and energy. To establish this analogy, we define the optimization procedure as a two-level Bayesian inference problem that separates variable selection from coefficient values and enables the computation of the posterior parameter distribution in closed form. A key advantage of employing statistical mechanical concepts, such as free energy and the partition function, is in the quantification of uncertainty, especially in in the low-data limit; frequently encountered in real-world applications. As the data volume increases, our approach mirrors the thermodynamic limit, leading to distinct sparsity- and noise-induced phase transitions that delineate correct from incorrect identification. This perspective of sparse equation discovery, is versatile and can be adapted to various other equation discovery algorithms.
Offensive Lineup Analysis in Basketball with Clustering Players Based on Shooting Style and Offensive Role
Yamada, Kazuhiro, Fujii, Keisuke
In a basketball game, scoring efficiency holds significant importance due to the numerous offensive possessions per game. Enhancing scoring efficiency necessitates effective collaboration among players with diverse playing styles. In previous studies, basketball lineups have been analyzed, but their playing style compatibility has not been quantitatively examined. The purpose of this study is to analyze more specifically the impact of playing style compatibility on scoring efficiency, focusing only on offense. This study employs two methods to capture the playing styles of players on offense: shooting style clustering using tracking data, and offensive role clustering based on annotated playtypes and advanced statistics. For the former, interpretable hand-crafted shot features and Wasserstein distances between shooting style distributions were utilized. For the latter, soft clustering was applied to playtype data for the first time. Subsequently, based on the lineup information derived from these two clusterings, machine learning models Bayesian models that predict statistics representing scoring efficiency were trained and interpreted. These approaches provide insights into which combinations of five players tend to be effective and which combinations of two players tend to produce good effects.
On the stochastics of human and artificial creativity
What constitutes human creativity, and is it possible for computers to exhibit genuine creativity? We argue that achieving human-level intelligence in computers, or so-called Artificial General Intelligence, necessitates attaining also human-level creativity. We contribute to this discussion by developing a statistical representation of human creativity, incorporating prior insights from stochastic theory, psychology, philosophy, neuroscience, and chaos theory. This highlights the stochastic nature of the human creative process, which includes both a bias guided, random proposal step, and an evaluation step depending on a flexible or transformable bias structure. The acquired representation of human creativity is subsequently used to assess the creativity levels of various contemporary AI systems. Our analysis includes modern AI algorithms such as reinforcement learning, diffusion models, and large language models, addressing to what extent they measure up to human level creativity. We conclude that these technologies currently lack the capability for autonomous creative action at a human level.
Normalising Flow-based Differentiable Particle Filters
Recently, there has been a surge of interest in incorporating neural networks into particle filters, e.g. differentiable particle filters, to perform joint sequential state estimation and model learning for non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models in complex environments. Existing differentiable particle filters are mostly constructed with vanilla neural networks that do not allow density estimation. As a result, they are either restricted to a bootstrap particle filtering framework or employ predefined distribution families (e.g. Gaussian distributions), limiting their performance in more complex real-world scenarios. In this paper we present a differentiable particle filtering framework that uses (conditional) normalising flows to build its dynamic model, proposal distribution, and measurement model. This not only enables valid probability densities but also allows the proposed method to adaptively learn these modules in a flexible way, without being restricted to predefined distribution families. We derive the theoretical properties of the proposed filters and evaluate the proposed normalising flow-based differentiable particle filters' performance through a series of numerical experiments.
DSLR: Diversity Enhancement and Structure Learning for Rehearsal-based Graph Continual Learning
Choi, Seungyoon, Kim, Wonjoong, Kim, Sungwon, In, Yeonjun, Kim, Sein, Park, Chanyoung
We investigate the replay buffer in rehearsal-based approaches for graph continual learning (GCL) methods. Existing rehearsal-based GCL methods select the most representative nodes for each class and store them in a replay buffer for later use in training subsequent tasks. However, we discovered that considering only the class representativeness of each replayed node makes the replayed nodes to be concentrated around the center of each class, incurring a potential risk of overfitting to nodes residing in those regions, which aggravates catastrophic forgetting. Moreover, as the rehearsal-based approach heavily relies on a few replayed nodes to retain knowledge obtained from previous tasks, involving the replayed nodes that have irrelevant neighbors in the model training may have a significant detrimental impact on model performance. In this paper, we propose a GCL model named DSLR, specifically, we devise a coverage-based diversity (CD) approach to consider both the class representativeness and the diversity within each class of the replayed nodes. Moreover, we adopt graph structure learning (GSL) to ensure that the replayed nodes are connected to truly informative neighbors. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of DSLR. Our source code is available at https://github.com/seungyoon-Choi/DSLR_official.
Towards Provable Log Density Policy Gradient
Katdare, Pulkit, Joshi, Anant, Driggs-Campbell, Katherine
Policy gradient methods are a vital ingredient behind the success of modern reinforcement learning. Modern policy gradient methods, although successful, introduce a residual error in gradient estimation. In this work, we argue that this residual term is significant and correcting for it could potentially improve sample-complexity of reinforcement learning methods. To that end, we propose log density gradient to estimate the policy gradient, which corrects for this residual error term. Log density gradient method computes policy gradient by utilising the state-action discounted distributional formulation. We first present the equations needed to exactly find the log density gradient for a tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). For more complex environments, we propose a temporal difference (TD) method that approximates log density gradient by utilizing backward on-policy samples. Since backward sampling from a Markov chain is highly restrictive we also propose a min-max optimization that can approximate log density gradient using just on-policy samples. We also prove uniqueness, and convergence under linear function approximation, for this min-max optimization. Finally, we show that the sample complexity of our min-max optimization to be of the order of $m^{-1/2}$, where $m$ is the number of on-policy samples. We also demonstrate a proof-of-concept for our log density gradient method on gridworld environment, and observe that our method is able to improve upon the classical policy gradient method by a clear margin, thus indicating a promising novel direction to develop reinforcement learning algorithms that require fewer samples.
A comprehensive cross-language framework for harmful content detection with the aid of sentiment analysis
In today's digital world, social media plays a significant role in facilitating communication and content sharing. However, the exponential rise in user-generated content has led to challenges in maintaining a respectful online environment. In some cases, users have taken advantage of anonymity in order to use harmful language, which can negatively affect the user experience and pose serious social problems. Recognizing the limitations of manual moderation, automatic detection systems have been developed to tackle this problem. Nevertheless, several obstacles persist, including the absence of a universal definition for harmful language, inadequate datasets across languages, the need for detailed annotation guideline, and most importantly, a comprehensive framework. This study aims to address these challenges by introducing, for the first time, a detailed framework adaptable to any language. This framework encompasses various aspects of harmful language detection. A key component of the framework is the development of a general and detailed annotation guideline. Additionally, the integration of sentiment analysis represents a novel approach to enhancing harmful language detection. Also, a definition of harmful language based on the review of different related concepts is presented. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, its implementation in a challenging low-resource language is conducted. We collected a Persian dataset and applied the annotation guideline for harmful detection and sentiment analysis. Next, we present baseline experiments utilizing machine and deep learning methods to set benchmarks. Results prove the framework's high performance, achieving an accuracy of 99.4% in offensive language detection and 66.2% in sentiment analysis.
Can a Confident Prior Replace a Cold Posterior?
Marek, Martin, Paige, Brooks, Izmailov, Pavel
Benchmark datasets used for image classification tend to have very low levels of label noise. When Bayesian neural networks are trained on these datasets, they often underfit, misrepresenting the aleatoric uncertainty of the data. A common solution is to cool the posterior, which improves fit to the training data but is challenging to interpret from a Bayesian perspective. We explore whether posterior tempering can be replaced by a confidence-inducing prior distribution. First, we introduce a "DirClip" prior that is practical to sample and nearly matches the performance of a cold posterior. Second, we introduce a "confidence prior" that directly approximates a cold likelihood in the limit of decreasing temperature but cannot be easily sampled. Lastly, we provide several general insights into confidence-inducing priors, such as when they might diverge and how fine-tuning can mitigate numerical instability.
When Your AIs Deceive You: Challenges with Partial Observability of Human Evaluators in Reward Learning
Lang, Leon, Foote, Davis, Russell, Stuart, Dragan, Anca, Jenner, Erik, Emmons, Scott
Past analyses of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) assume that the human fully observes the environment. What happens when human feedback is based only on partial observations? We formally define two failure cases: deception and overjustification. Modeling the human as Boltzmann-rational w.r.t. a belief over trajectories, we prove conditions under which RLHF is guaranteed to result in policies that deceptively inflate their performance, overjustify their behavior to make an impression, or both. To help address these issues, we mathematically characterize how partial observability of the environment translates into (lack of) ambiguity in the learned return function. In some cases, accounting for partial observability makes it theoretically possible to recover the return function and thus the optimal policy, while in other cases, there is irreducible ambiguity. We caution against blindly applying RLHF in partially observable settings and propose research directions to help tackle these challenges.