In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. While recent advancements in machine learning have introduced flexible methods for IV estimation, they often encounter one or more of the following limitations: (1) restricting the IV regression to be uniquely identified; (2) requiring minimax computation oracle, which is highly unstable in practice; (3) absence of model selection procedure. In this paper, we present the first method and analysis that can avoid all three limitations, while still enabling general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a minimax-oracle-free method called Regularized DeepIV (RDIV) regression that can converge to the least-norm IV solution. Our method consists of two stages: first, we learn the conditional distribution of covariates, and by utilizing the learned distribution, we learn the estimator by minimizing a Tikhonov-regularized loss function. We further show that our method allows model selection procedures that can achieve the oracle rates in the misspecified regime. When extended to an iterative estimator, our method matches the current state-of-the-art convergence rate. Our method is a Tikhonov regularized variant of the popular DeepIV method with a non-parametric MLE first-stage estimator, and our results provide the first rigorous guarantees for this empirically used method, showcasing the importance of regularization which was absent from the original work.

In representation learning on graph-structured data, many popular graph neural networks (GNNs) fail to capture long-range dependencies, leading to performance degradation. Furthermore, this weakness is magnified when the concerned graph is characterized by heterophily (low homophily). To solve this issue, this paper proposes a novel graph learning framework called the graph convolutional network with self-attention (GCN-SA). The proposed scheme exhibits an exceptional generalization capability in node-level representation learning. The proposed GCN-SA contains two enhancements corresponding to edges and node features. For edges, we utilize a self-attention mechanism to design a stable and effective graph-structure-learning module that can capture the internal correlation between any pair of nodes. This graph-structure-learning module can identify reliable neighbors for each node from the entire graph. Regarding the node features, we modify the transformer block to make it more applicable to enable GCN to fuse valuable information from the entire graph. These two enhancements work in distinct ways to help our GCN-SA capture long-range dependencies, enabling it to perform representation learning on graphs with varying levels of homophily. The experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GCN-SA. Compared to other outstanding GNN counterparts, the proposed GCN-SA is competitive.

Abrupt maneuvers by surrounding vehicles (SVs) can typically lead to safety concerns and affect the task efficiency of the ego vehicle (EV), especially with model uncertainties stemming from environmental disturbances. This paper presents a real-time fail-operational controller that ensures the asymptotic convergence of an uncertain EV to a safe state, while preserving task efficiency in dynamic environments. An incremental Bayesian learning approach is developed to facilitate online learning and inference of changing environmental disturbances. Leveraging disturbance quantification and constraint transformation, we develop a stochastic fail-operational barrier based on the control barrier function (CBF). With this development, the uncertain EV is able to converge asymptotically from an unsafe state to a defined safe state with probabilistic stability. Subsequently, the stochastic fail-operational barrier is integrated into an efficient fail-operational controller based on quadratic programming (QP). This controller is tailored for the EV operating under control constraints in the presence of environmental disturbances, with both safety and efficiency objectives taken into consideration. We validate the proposed framework in connected cruise control (CCC) tasks, where SVs perform aggressive driving maneuvers. The simulation results demonstrate that our method empowers the EV to swiftly return to a safe state while upholding task efficiency in real time, even under time-varying environmental disturbances.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved phenomenal success in various domains. However, its data-driven nature also introduces new vulnerabilities that can be exploited by malicious opponents. Recent work shows that a well-trained RL agent can be easily manipulated by strategically perturbing its state observations at the test stage. Existing solutions either introduce a regularization term to improve the smoothness of the trained policy against perturbations or alternatively train the agent's policy and the attacker's policy. However, the former does not provide sufficient protection against strong attacks, while the latter is computationally prohibitive for large environments. In this work, we propose a new robust RL algorithm for deriving a pessimistic policy to safeguard against an agent's uncertainty about true states. This approach is further enhanced with belief state inference and diffusion-based state purification to reduce uncertainty. Empirical results show that our approach obtains superb performance under strong attacks and has a comparable training overhead with regularization-based methods. As one of the major paradigms for data-driven control, reinforcement learning (RL) provides a principled and solid framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. By incorporating the approximation capacity of deep neural networks, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has found impressive applications in robotics (Levine et al., 2016), large generative models (OpenAI, 2023), and autonomous driving (Kiran et al., 2021), and obtained super-human performance in tasks such as Go (Silver et al., 2016) and Gran Turismo (Wurman et al., 2022). However, an RL agent is subject to various types of attacks, including state and reward perturbation, action space manipulation, and model inference and poisoning (Ilahi et al., 2022). Recent studies have shown that an RL agent can be manipulated by poisoning its observation (Huang et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2020a) and reward signals (Huang & Zhu, 2019), and a well-trained RL agent can be easily defeated by a malicious opponent behaving unexpectedly (Gleave et al., 2020). In particular, recent research has demonstrated the brittleness (Zhang et al., 2020a; Sun et al., 2021) of existing RL algorithms in the face of adversarial state perturbations, where a malicious agent strategically and stealthily perturbs the observations of a trained RL agent, causing a significant loss of cumulative reward. Such an attack can be implemented in practice by exploiting the defects in the agent's perception component, e.g., sensors and communication channels. This raises significant concerns when applying RL techniques in security and safety-critical domains.

In environments like offices, the duration of a robot's navigation between two locations may vary over time. For instance, reaching a kitchen may take more time during lunchtime since the corridors are crowded with people heading the same way. In this work, we address the problem of routing in such environments with tasks expressed in Metric Interval Temporal Logic (MITL) - a rich robot task specification language that allows us to capture explicit time requirements. Our objective is to find a strategy that maximizes the temporal robustness of the robot's MITL task. As the first step towards a solution, we define a Mixed-integer linear programming approach to solving the task planning problem over a Varying Weighted Transition System, where navigation durations are deterministic but vary depending on the time of day. Then, we apply this planner to optimize for MITL temporal robustness in Markov Decision Processes, where the navigation durations between physical locations are uncertain, but the time-dependent distribution over possible delays is known. Finally, we develop a receding horizon planner for Markov Decision Processes that preserves guarantees over MITL temporal robustness. We show the scalability of our planning algorithms in simulations of robotic tasks.

Secondly, we use the learned This paper presents a novel self-supervised path-planning method world model as an internal generative model enriched with active for UAV-aided networks. First, we employed an optimizer to solve states to simulate the environment and plan actions that minimize training examples offline and then used the resulting solutions as the agent's surprise during online decision-making. This approach demonstrations from which the UAV can learn the world model to enables the UAV to navigate its surroundings with a reference model understand the environment and implicitly discover the optimizer's representing the goal, choosing actions that minimize unexpected or policy. UAV equipped with the world model can make real-time unusual observations (surprise) measured by how much they deviate autonomous decisions and engage in online planning using active from the expected goal. The main contributions of this paper are as inference. During planning, UAV can score different policies based follows: It expands on previous research [11] by exploring online on the expected surprise, allowing it to choose among alternative planning, a prospective form of cognition.

This paper presents a method of unsupervised learning of harmonic analysis based on a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM). We introduce the chord quality templates, which specify the probability of pitch class emissions given a root note and a chord quality. Other probability distributions that comprise the HSMM are automatically learned via unsupervised learning, which has been a challenge in existing research. The results of the harmonic analysis of the proposed model were evaluated using existing labeled data. While our proposed method has yet to perform as well as existing models that used supervised learning and complex rule design, it has the advantage of not requiring expensive labeled data or rule elaboration. Furthermore, we also show how to recognize the tonic without prior knowledge, based on the transition probabilities of the Markov model.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

Real-world data often exhibits sequential dependence, across diverse domains such as human behavior, medicine, finance, and climate modeling. Probabilistic methods capture the inherent uncertainty associated with prediction in these contexts, with autoregressive models being especially prominent. This dissertation focuses on using autoregressive models to answer complex probabilistic queries that go beyond single-step prediction, such as the timing of future events or the likelihood of a specific event occurring before another. In particular, we develop a broad class of novel and efficient approximation techniques for marginalization in sequential models that are model-agnostic. These techniques rely solely on access to and sampling from next-step conditional distributions of a pre-trained autoregressive model, including both traditional parametric models as well as more recent neural autoregressive models. Specific approaches are presented for discrete sequential models, for marked temporal point processes, and for stochastic jump processes, each tailored to a well-defined class of informative, long-range probabilistic queries.

Recent works have argued that high-level semantic concepts are encoded "linearly" in the representation space of large language models. In this work, we study the origins of such linear representations. To that end, we introduce a simple latent variable model to abstract and formalize the concept dynamics of the next token prediction. We use this formalism to show that the next token prediction objective (softmax with cross-entropy) and the implicit bias of gradient descent together promote the linear representation of concepts. Experiments show that linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, confirming that this simple structure already suffices to yield linear representations. We additionally confirm some predictions of the theory using the LLaMA-2 large language model, giving evidence that the simplified model yields generalizable insights.