To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness creates new challenges for sampler and parameter selection, since standard measures of sample quality like effective sample size do not account for asymptotic bias. To address these challenges, we introduce a new computable quality measure based on Stein's method that bounds the discrepancy between sample and target expectations over a large class of test functions. We use our tool to compare exact, biased, and deterministic sample sequences and illustrate applications to hyperparameter selection, convergence rate assessment, and quantifying bias-variance tradeoffs in posterior inference.

Authorship Verification (AV) is the process of analyzing a set of documents to determine whether they were written by a specific author. This problem often arises in forensic scenarios, e.g., in cases where the documents in question constitute evidence for a crime. Existing state-of-the-art AV methods use computational solutions that are not supported by a plausible scientific explanation for their functioning and that are often difficult for analysts to interpret. To address this, we propose a method relying on calculating a quantity we call $\lambda_G$ (LambdaG): the ratio between the likelihood of a document given a model of the Grammar for the candidate author and the likelihood of the same document given a model of the Grammar for a reference population. These Grammar Models are estimated using $n$-gram language models that are trained solely on grammatical features. Despite not needing large amounts of data for training, LambdaG still outperforms other established AV methods with higher computational complexity, including a fine-tuned Siamese Transformer network. Our empirical evaluation based on four baseline methods applied to twelve datasets shows that LambdaG leads to better results in terms of both accuracy and AUC in eleven cases and in all twelve cases if considering only topic-agnostic methods. The algorithm is also highly robust to important variations in the genre of the reference population in many cross-genre comparisons. In addition to these properties, we demonstrate how LambdaG is easier to interpret than the current state-of-the-art. We argue that the advantage of LambdaG over other methods is due to fact that it is compatible with Cognitive Linguistic theories of language processing.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Markov networks are probabilistic graphical models that employ undirected graphs to depict conditional independence relationships among variables. Our focus lies in constraint-based structure learning, which entails learning the undirected graph from data through the execution of conditional independence tests. We establish theoretical limits concerning two critical aspects of constraint-based learning of Markov networks: the number of tests and the sizes of the conditioning sets. These bounds uncover an exciting interplay between the structural properties of the graph and the amount of tests required to learn a Markov network. The starting point of our work is that the graph parameter maximum pairwise connectivity, $\kappa$, that is, the maximum number of vertex-disjoint paths connecting a pair of vertices in the graph, is responsible for the sizes of independence tests required to learn the graph. On one hand, we show that at least one test with the size of the conditioning set at least $\kappa$ is always necessary. On the other hand, we prove that any graph can be learned by performing tests of size at most $\kappa$. This completely resolves the question of the minimum size of conditioning sets required to learn the graph. When it comes to the number of tests, our upper bound on the sizes of conditioning sets implies that every $n$-vertex graph can be learned by at most $n^{\kappa}$ tests with conditioning sets of sizes at most $\kappa$. We show that for any upper bound $q$ on the sizes of the conditioning sets, there exist graphs with $O(n q)$ vertices that require at least $n^{\Omega(\kappa)}$ tests to learn. This lower bound holds even when the treewidth and the maximum degree of the graph are at most $\kappa+2$. On the positive side, we prove that every graph of bounded treewidth can be learned by a polynomial number of tests with conditioning sets of sizes at most $2\kappa$.

The ability to construct concise scene representations from sensor input is central to the field of robotics. This paper addresses the problem of robustly creating a 3D representation of a tabletop scene from a segmented RGB-D image. These representations are then critical for a range of downstream manipulation tasks. Many previous attempts to tackle this problem do not capture accurate uncertainty, which is required to subsequently produce safe motion plans. In this paper, we cast the representation of 3D tabletop scenes as a multi-class classification problem. To tackle this, we introduce V-PRISM, a framework and method for robustly creating probabilistic 3D segmentation maps of tabletop scenes. Our maps contain both occupancy estimates, segmentation information, and principled uncertainty measures. We evaluate the robustness of our method in (1) procedurally generated scenes using open-source object datasets, and (2) real-world tabletop data collected from a depth camera. Our experiments show that our approach outperforms alternative continuous reconstruction approaches that do not explicitly reason about objects in a multi-class formulation.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) do not inherently compute or exhibit empirically-justified task confidence. In mission critical applications, it is important to both understand associated DNN reasoning and its supporting evidence. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach to extract explanations, justifications, and uncertainty estimates from DNNs. Our approach is efficient both in terms of memory and computation, and can be applied to any black box DNN without any retraining, including applications to anomaly detection and out-of-distribution detection tasks. We validate our approach on the CIFAR-10 dataset, and show that it can significantly improve the interpretability and reliability of DNNs.

Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width 2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound k, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter k. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice.

Recently, there has been growing interest in lifting MAP inference algorithms for Markov logic networks (MLNs). A key advantage of these lifted algorithms is that they have much smaller computational complexity than propositional algorithms when symmetries are present in the MLN and these symmetries can be detected using lifted inference rules. Unfortunately, lifted inference rules are sound but not complete and can often miss many symmetries. This is problematic because when symmetries cannot be exploited, lifted inference algorithms ground the MLN, and search for solutions in the much larger propositional space. In this paper, we present a novel approach, which cleverly introduces new symmetries at the time of grounding.

In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) objective, as opposed to a standard risk-neutral expectation. We refer to such problem as CVaR MDP. Our first contribution is to show that a CVaR objective, besides capturing risk sensitivity, has an alternative interpretation as expected cost under worst-case modeling errors, for a given error budget. This result, which is of independent interest, motivates CVaR MDPs as a unifying framework for risk-sensitive and robust decision making. Our second contribution is to present an approximate value-iteration algorithm for CVaR MDPs and analyze its convergence rate. To our knowledge, this is the first solution algorithm for CVaR MDPs that enjoys error guarantees. Finally, we present results from numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical findings and show the practicality of our approach.

In recent years, approaches based on machine learning have achieved state-of-theart performance on image restoration problems. Successful approaches include both generative models of natural images as well as discriminative training of deep neural networks. Discriminative training of feed forward architectures allows explicit control over the computational cost of performing restoration and therefore often leads to better performance at the same cost at run time. In contrast, generative models have the advantage that they can be trained once and then adapted to any image restoration task by a simple use of Bayes' rule. In this paper we show how to combine the strengths of both approaches by training a discriminative, feed-forward architecture to predict the state of latent variables in a generative model of natural images. We apply this idea to the very successful Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) of natural images. We show that it is possible to achieve comparable performance as the original GMM but with two orders of magnitude improvement in run time while maintaining the advantage of generative models.