In real-world control settings, the observation space is often unnecessarily high-dimensional and subject to time-correlated noise. However, the controllable dynamics of the system are often far simpler than the dynamics of the raw observations. It is therefore desirable to learn an encoder to map the observation space to a simpler space of control-relevant variables. In this work, we consider the Ex-BMDP model, first proposed by Efroni et al. (2022), which formalizes control problems where observations can be factorized into an action-dependent latent state which evolves deterministically, and action-independent time-correlated noise. Lamb et al. (2022) proposes the "AC-State" method for learning an encoder to extract a complete action-dependent latent state representation from the observations in such problems. AC-State is a multistep-inverse method, in that it uses the encoding of the the first and last state in a path to predict the first action in the path. However, we identify cases where AC-State will fail to learn a correct latent representation of the agent-controllable factor of the state. We therefore propose a new algorithm, ACDF, which combines multistep-inverse prediction with a latent forward model. ACDF is guaranteed to correctly infer an action-dependent latent state encoder for a large class of Ex-BMDP models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ACDF on tabular Ex-BMDPs through numerical simulations; as well as high-dimensional environments using neural-network-based encoders. Code is available at https://github.com/midi-lab/acdf.

In real-world scenarios, datasets collected from randomized experiments are often constrained by size, due to limitations in time and budget. As a result, leveraging large observational datasets becomes a more attractive option for achieving high-quality policy learning. However, most existing offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods depend on two key assumptions--unconfoundedness and positivity--which frequently do not hold in observational data contexts. Recognizing these challenges, we propose a novel policy learning algorithm, PESsimistic CAusal Learning (PESCAL). We utilize the mediator variable based on front-door criterion to remove the confounding bias; additionally, we adopt the pessimistic principle to address the distributional shift between the action distributions induced by candidate policies, and the behavior policy that generates the observational data. Our key observation is that, by incorporating auxiliary variables that mediate the effect of actions on system dynamics, it is sufficient to learn a lower bound of the mediator distribution function, instead of the Q-function, to partially mitigate the issue of distributional shift. This insight significantly simplifies our algorithm, by circumventing the challenging task of sequential uncertainty quantification for the estimated Q-function. Moreover, we provide theoretical guarantees for the algorithms we propose, and demonstrate their efficacy through simulations, as well as real-world experiments utilizing offline datasets from a leading ride-hailing platform.

We investigate the real-time estimation of human situation awareness using observations from a robot teammate with limited visibility. In human factors and human-autonomy teaming, it is recognized that individuals navigate their environments using an internal mental simulation, or mental model. The mental model informs cognitive processes including situation awareness, contextual reasoning, and task planning. In teaming domains, the mental model includes a team model of each teammate's beliefs and capabilities, enabling fluent teamwork without the need for explicit communication. However, little work has applied team models to human-robot teaming. We compare the performance of two current methods at estimating user situation awareness over varying visibility conditions. Our results indicate that the methods are largely resilient to low-visibility conditions in our domain, however opportunities exist to improve their overall performance.

Our work introduces an innovative approach to graph learning by leveraging Hyperdimensional Computing. Graphs serve as a widely embraced method for conveying information, and their utilization in learning has gained significant attention. This is notable in the field of chemoinformatics, where learning from graph representations plays a pivotal role. An important application within this domain involves the identification of cancerous cells across diverse molecular structures. We propose an HDC-based model that demonstrates comparable Area Under the Curve results when compared to state-of-the-art models like Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) or the Weisfieler-Lehman graph kernel (WL). Moreover, it outperforms previously proposed hyperdimensional computing graph learning methods. Furthermore, it achieves noteworthy speed enhancements, boasting a 40x acceleration in the training phase and a 15x improvement in inference time compared to GNN and WL models. This not only underscores the efficacy of the HDC-based method, but also highlights its potential for expedited and resource-efficient graph learning.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

We study the sample complexity of learning an $\epsilon$-optimal policy in an average-reward Markov decision process (MDP) under a generative model. For weakly communicating MDPs, we establish the complexity bound $\tilde{O}(SA\frac{H}{\epsilon^2})$, where $H$ is the span of the bias function of the optimal policy and $SA$ is the cardinality of the state-action space. Our result is the first that is minimax optimal (up to log factors) in all parameters $S,A,H$ and $\epsilon$, improving on existing work that either assumes uniformly bounded mixing times for all policies or has suboptimal dependence on the parameters. We further investigate sample complexity in general (non-weakly-communicating) average-reward MDPs. We argue a new transient time parameter $B$ is necessary, establish an $\tilde{O}(SA\frac{B+H}{\epsilon^2})$ complexity bound, and prove a matching (up to log factors) minimax lower bound. Both results are based on reducing the average-reward MDP to a discounted MDP, which requires new ideas in the general setting. To establish the optimality of this reduction, we develop improved bounds for $\gamma$-discounted MDPs, showing that $\tilde{\Omega}\left(SA\frac{H}{(1-\gamma)^2\epsilon^2}\right)$ samples suffice to learn an $\epsilon$-optimal policy in weakly communicating MDPs under the regime that $\gamma\geq 1-1/H$, and $\tilde{\Omega}\left(SA\frac{B+H}{(1-\gamma)^2\epsilon^2}\right)$ samples suffice in general MDPs when $\gamma\geq 1-\frac{1}{B+H}$. Both these results circumvent the well-known lower bound of $\tilde{\Omega}\left(SA\frac{1}{(1-\gamma)^3\epsilon^2}\right)$ for arbitrary $\gamma$-discounted MDPs. Our analysis develops upper bounds on certain instance-dependent variance parameters in terms of the span and transient time parameters. The weakly communicating bounds are tighter than those based on the mixing time or diameter of the MDP and may be of broader use.

This paper proposes an adaptive behavioral decision-making method for autonomous vehicles (AVs) focusing on complex merging scenarios. Leveraging principles from non-cooperative game theory, we develop a vehicle interaction behavior model that defines key traffic elements and integrates a multifactorial reward function. Maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is employed for behavior model parameter optimization. Optimal matching parameters can be obtained using the interaction behavior feature vector and the behavior probabilities output by the vehicle interaction model. Further, a behavioral decision-making method adapted to dynamic environments is proposed. By establishing a mapping model between multiple environmental variables and model parameters, it enables parameters online learning and recognition, and achieves to output interactive behavior probabilities of AVs. Quantitative analysis employing naturalistic driving datasets (highD and exiD) and real-vehicle test data validates the model's high consistency with human decision-making. In 188 tested interaction scenarios, the average human-like similarity rate is 81.73%, with a notable 83.12% in the highD dataset. Furthermore, in 145 dynamic interactions, the method matches human decisions at 77.12%, with 6913 consistence instances. Moreover, in real-vehicle tests, a 72.73% similarity with 0% safety violations are obtained. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in enabling AVs to make informed adaptive behavior decisions in interactive environments.

The growing interest in developing smart diagnostic systems to help medical experts process extensive data for treating incurable diseases has been notable. In particular, the challenge of identifying thyroid cancer (TC) has seen progress with the use of machine learning (ML) and big data analysis, incorporating transformers to evaluate TC prognosis and determine the risk of malignancy in individuals. This review article presents a summary of various studies on AIbased approaches, especially those employing transformers, for diagnosing TC. It introduces a new categorization system for these methods based on artifcial intelligence (AI) algorithms, the goals of the framework, and the computing environments used. Additionally, it scrutinizes and contrasts the available TC datasets by their features. The paper highlights the importance of AI instruments in aiding the diagnosis and treatment of TC through supervised, unsupervised, or mixed approaches, with a special focus on the ongoing importance of transformers in medical diagnostics and disease management. It further discusses the progress made and the continuing obstacles in this area. Lastly, it explores future directions and focuses within this research feld.

Causality has become a fundamental approach for explaining the relationships between events, phenomena, and outcomes in various fields of study. It has invaded various fields and applications, such as medicine, healthcare, economics, finance, fraud detection, cybersecurity, education, public policy, recommender systems, anomaly detection, robotics, control, sociology, marketing, and advertising. In this paper, we survey its development over the past five decades, shedding light on the differences between causality and other approaches, as well as the preconditions for using it. Furthermore, the paper illustrates how causality interacts with new approaches such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Generative AI (GAI), Machine and Deep Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL), and Fuzzy Logic. We study the impact of causality on various fields, its contribution, and its interaction with state-of-the-art approaches. Additionally, the paper exemplifies the trustworthiness and explainability of causality models. We offer several ways to evaluate causality models and discuss future directions.

Motivated by agility, 3D mobility, and low-risk operation compared to human-operated management systems of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), this work studies UAV-based active wildfire monitoring where a UAV detects fire incidents in remote areas and tracks the fire frontline. A UAV path planning solution is proposed considering realistic wildfire management missions, where a single low-altitude drone with limited power and flight time is available. Noting the limited field of view of commercial low-altitude UAVs, the problem formulates as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), in which wildfire progression outside the field of view causes inaccurate state representation that prevents the UAV from finding the optimal path to track the fire front in limited time. Common deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based trajectory planning solutions require diverse drone-recorded wildfire data to generalize pre-trained models to real-time systems, which is not currently available at a diverse and standard scale. To narrow down the gap caused by partial observability in the space of possible policies, a belief-based state representation with broad, extensive simulated data is proposed where the beliefs (i.e., ignition probabilities of different grid areas) are updated using a Bayesian framework for the cells within the field of view. The performance of the proposed solution in terms of the ratio of detected fire cells and monitored ignited area (MIA) is evaluated in a complex fire scenario with multiple rapidly growing fire batches, indicating that the belief state representation outperforms the observation state representation both in fire coverage and the distance to fire frontline.