Unsupervised learning is a training approach in the situation where ground truth data is unavailable, such as inverse imaging problems. We present an unsupervised Bayesian training approach to learning convex neural network regularizers using a fixed noisy dataset, based on a dual Markov chain estimation method. Compared to classical supervised adversarial regularization methods, where there is access to both clean images as well as unlimited to noisy copies, we demonstrate close performance on natural image Gaussian deconvolution and Poisson denoising tasks.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a fundamental model for decision making under uncertainty. They exhibit non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, verification algorithms assume exact knowledge of the probabilities that govern the behaviour of an MDP. As this assumption is often unrealistic in practice, statistical model checking (SMC) was developed in the past two decades. It allows to analyse MDPs with unknown transition probabilities and provide probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees on the result. Model-based SMC algorithms sample the MDP and build a model of it by estimating all transition probabilities, essentially for every transition answering the question: ``What are the odds?'' However, so far the statistical methods employed by the state of the art SMC algorithms are quite naive. Our contribution are several fundamental improvements to those methods: On the one hand, we survey statistics literature for better concentration inequalities; on the other hand, we propose specialised approaches that exploit our knowledge of the MDP. Our improvements are generally applicable to many kinds of problem statements because they are largely independent of the setting. Moreover, our experimental evaluation shows that they lead to significant gains, reducing the number of samples that the SMC algorithm has to collect by up to two orders of magnitude.

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks experiments that maximize the expected information gain (EIG) in model parameters. Directly estimating the EIG using nested Monte Carlo is computationally expensive and requires an explicit likelihood. Variational OED (vOED), in contrast, estimates a lower bound of the EIG without likelihood evaluations by approximating the posterior distributions with variational forms, and then tightens the bound by optimizing its variational parameters. We introduce the use of normalizing flows (NFs) for representing variational distributions in vOED; we call this approach vOED-NFs. Specifically, we adopt NFs with a conditional invertible neural network architecture built from compositions of coupling layers, and enhanced with a summary network for data dimension reduction. We present Monte Carlo estimators to the lower bound along with gradient expressions to enable a gradient-based simultaneous optimization of the variational parameters and the design variables. The vOED-NFs algorithm is then validated in two benchmark problems, and demonstrated on a partial differential equation-governed application of cathodic electrophoretic deposition and an implicit likelihood case with stochastic modeling of aphid population. The findings suggest that a composition of 4--5 coupling layers is able to achieve lower EIG estimation bias, under a fixed budget of forward model runs, compared to previous approaches. The resulting NFs produce approximate posteriors that agree well with the true posteriors, able to capture non-Gaussian and multi-modal features effectively.

Characterization of joint probability distribution for large networks of random variables remains a challenging task in data science. Probabilistic graph approximation with simple topologies has practically been resorted to; typically the tree topology makes joint probability computation much simpler and can be effective for statistical inference on insufficient data. However, to characterize network components where multiple variables cooperate closely to influence others, model topologies beyond a tree are needed, which unfortunately are infeasible to acquire. In particular, our previous work has related optimal approximation of Markov networks of tree-width k >=2 closely to the graph-theoretic problem of finding maximum spanning k-tree (MSkT), which is a provably intractable task. This paper investigates optimal approximation of Markov networks with k-tree topology that retains some designated underlying subgraph. Such a subgraph may encode certain background information that arises in scientific applications, for example, about a known significant pathway in gene networks or the indispensable backbone connectivity in the residue interaction graphs for a biomolecule 3D structure. In particular, it is proved that the \beta-retaining MSkT problem, for a number of classes \beta of graphs, admit O(n^{k+1})-time algorithms for every fixed k>= 1. These \beta-retaining MSkT algorithms offer efficient solutions for approximation of Markov networks with k-tree topology in the situation where certain persistent information needs to be retained.

We study the problem of estimating the stationary mass -- also called the unigram mass -- that is missing from a single trajectory of a discrete-time, ergodic Markov chain. This problem has several applications -- for example, estimating the stationary missing mass is critical for accurately smoothing probability estimates in sequence models. While the classical Good--Turing estimator from the 1950s has appealing properties for i.i.d. data, it is known to be biased in the Markov setting, and other heuristic estimators do not come equipped with guarantees. Operating in the general setting in which the size of the state space may be much larger than the length $n$ of the trajectory, we develop a linear-runtime estimator called \emph{Windowed Good--Turing} (\textsc{WingIt}) and show that its risk decays as $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathsf{T_{mix}}/n)$, where $\mathsf{T_{mix}}$ denotes the mixing time of the chain in total variation distance. Notably, this rate is independent of the size of the state space and minimax-optimal up to a logarithmic factor in $n / \mathsf{T_{mix}}$. We also present a bound on the variance of the missing mass random variable, which may be of independent interest. We extend our estimator to approximate the stationary mass placed on elements occurring with small frequency in $X^n$. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our estimators both in simulations on canonical chains and on sequences constructed from a popular natural language corpus.

Missing data poses a significant challenge in data science, affecting decision-making processes and outcomes. Understanding what missing data is, how it occurs, and why it is crucial to handle it appropriately is paramount when working with real-world data, especially in tabular data, one of the most commonly used data types in the real world. Three missing mechanisms are defined in the literature: Missing Completely At Random (MCAR), Missing At Random (MAR), and Missing Not At Random (MNAR), each presenting unique challenges in imputation. Most existing work are focused on MCAR that is relatively easy to handle. The special missing mechanisms of MNAR and MAR are less explored and understood. This article reviews existing literature on handling missing values. It compares and contrasts existing methods in terms of their ability to handle different missing mechanisms and data types. It identifies research gap in the existing literature and lays out potential directions for future research in the field. The information in this review will help data analysts and researchers to adopt and promote good practices for handling missing data in real-world problems.

The domain of online learning has experienced multifaceted expansion owing to its prevalence in real-life applications. Nonetheless, this progression operates under the assumption that the input feature space of the streaming data remains constant. In this survey paper, we address the topic of online learning in the context of haphazard inputs, explicitly foregoing such an assumption. We discuss, classify, evaluate, and compare the methodologies that are adept at modeling haphazard inputs, additionally providing the corresponding code implementations and their carbon footprint. Moreover, we classify the datasets related to the field of haphazard inputs and introduce evaluation metrics specifically designed for datasets exhibiting imbalance. The code of each methodology can be found at https://github.com/Rohit102497/HaphazardInputsReview

Breast cancer has rapidly increased in prevalence in recent years, making it one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. Among all cancers, it is by far the most common. Diagnosing this illness manually requires significant time and expertise. Since detecting breast cancer is a time-consuming process, preventing its further spread can be aided by creating machine-based forecasts. Machine learning and Explainable AI are crucial in classification as they not only provide accurate predictions but also offer insights into how the model arrives at its decisions, aiding in the understanding and trustworthiness of the classification results. In this study, we evaluate and compare the classification accuracy, precision, recall, and F-1 scores of five different machine learning methods using a primary dataset (500 patients from Dhaka Medical College Hospital). Five different supervised machine learning techniques, including decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, naive bayes, and XGBoost, have been used to achieve optimal results on our dataset. Additionally, this study applied SHAP analysis to the XGBoost model to interpret the model's predictions and understand the impact of each feature on the model's output. We compared the accuracy with which several algorithms classified the data, as well as contrasted with other literature in this field. After final evaluation, this study found that XGBoost achieved the best model accuracy, which is 97%.

Hospital readmission, defined as patients being re-hospitalized shortly after discharge, is a critical concern as it impacts patient outcomes and healthcare costs. Identifying patients at risk of readmission allows for timely interventions, reducing re-hospitalization rates and overall treatment costs. This study focuses on predicting patient readmission within less than 30 days using text mining techniques applied to discharge report texts from electronic health records (EHR). Various machine learning and deep learning methods were employed to develop a classification model for this purpose. A novel aspect of this research involves leveraging the Bio-Discharge Summary Bert (BDSS) model along with principal component analysis (PCA) feature extraction to preprocess data for deep learning model input. Our analysis of the MIMIC-III dataset indicates that our approach, which combines the BDSS model with a multilayer perceptron (MLP), outperforms state-of-the-art methods. This model achieved a recall of 94% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 75%, showcasing its effectiveness in predicting patient readmissions. This study contributes to the advancement of predictive modeling in healthcare by integrating text mining techniques with deep learning algorithms to improve patient outcomes and optimize resource allocation.

Many complex problems encountered in both production and daily life can be conceptualized as combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) over graphs. Recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) based models have emerged as a promising direction, which treat the COPs solving as a heuristic learning problem. However, current finite-horizon-MDP based RL models have inherent limitations. They are not allowed to explore adquately for improving solutions at test time, which may be necessary given the complexity of NP-hard optimization tasks. Some recent attempts solve this issue by focusing on reward design and state feature engineering, which are tedious and ad-hoc. In this work, we instead propose a much simpler but more effective technique, named gauge transformation (GT). The technique is originated from physics, but is very effective in enabling RL agents to explore to continuously improve the solutions during test. Morever, GT is very simple, which can be implemented with less than 10 lines of Python codes, and can be applied to a vast majority of RL models. Experimentally, we show that traditional RL models with GT technique produce the state-of-the-art performances on the MaxCut problem. Furthermore, since GT is independent of any RL models, it can be seamlessly integrated into various RL frameworks, paving the way of these models for more effective explorations in the solving of general COPs.