The application of artificial intelligence (AI) models in fields such as engineering is limited by the known difficulty of quantifying the reliability of an AI's decision. A well-calibrated AI model must correctly report its accuracy on in-distribution (ID) inputs, while also enabling the detection of out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. A conventional approach to improve calibration is the application of Bayesian ensembling. However, owing to computational limitations and model misspecification, practical ensembling strategies do not necessarily enhance calibration. This paper proposes an extension of variational inference (VI)-based Bayesian learning that integrates calibration regularization for improved ID performance, confidence minimization for OOD detection, and selective calibration to ensure a synergistic use of calibration regularization and confidence minimization. The scheme is constructed successively by first introducing calibration-regularized Bayesian learning (CBNN), then incorporating out-of-distribution confidence minimization (OCM) to yield CBNN-OCM, and finally integrating also selective calibration to produce selective CBNN-OCM (SCBNN-OCM). Selective calibration rejects inputs for which the calibration performance is expected to be insufficient. Numerical results illustrate the trade-offs between ID accuracy, ID calibration, and OOD calibration attained by both frequentist and Bayesian learning methods. Among the main conclusions, SCBNN-OCM is seen to achieve best ID and OOD performance as compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches at the cost of rejecting a sufficiently large number of inputs.

We present a unified framework called deep dependency networks (DDNs) that combines dependency networks and deep learning architectures for multi-label classification, with a particular emphasis on image and video data. The primary advantage of dependency networks is their ease of training, in contrast to other probabilistic graphical models like Markov networks. In particular, when combined with deep learning architectures, they provide an intuitive, easy-to-use loss function for multi-label classification. A drawback of DDNs compared to Markov networks is their lack of advanced inference schemes, necessitating the use of Gibbs sampling. To address this challenge, we propose novel inference schemes based on local search and integer linear programming for computing the most likely assignment to the labels given observations. We evaluate our novel methods on three video datasets (Charades, TACoS, Wetlab) and three image datasets (MS-COCO, PASCAL VOC, NUS-WIDE), comparing their performance with (a) basic neural architectures and (b) neural architectures combined with Markov networks equipped with advanced inference and learning techniques. Our results demonstrate the superiority of our new DDN methods over the two competing approaches.

We introduce a deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks. This yields a sampling-free, single-pass model and loss that effectively improves uncertainty estimation. Our variational Bayesian last layer (VBLL) can be trained and evaluated with only quadratic complexity in last layer width, and is thus (nearly) computationally free to add to standard architectures. We experimentally investigate VBLLs, and show that they improve predictive accuracy, calibration, and out of distribution detection over baselines across both regression and classification. Finally, we investigate combining VBLL layers with variational Bayesian feature learning, yielding a lower variance collapsed variational inference method for Bayesian neural networks. Well-calibrated uncertainty quantification is essential for reliable decision-making with machine learning systems.

Portfolio optimization tasks describe sequential decision problems in which the investor's wealth is distributed across a set of assets. Allocation constraints are used to enforce minimal or maximal investments into particular subsets of assets to control for objectives such as limiting the portfolio's exposure to a certain sector due to environmental concerns. Although methods for constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) can optimize policies while considering allocation constraints, it can be observed that these general methods yield suboptimal results. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to handle allocation constraints based on a decomposition of the constraint action space into a set of unconstrained allocation problems. In particular, we examine this approach for the case of two constraints. For example, an investor may wish to invest at least a certain percentage of the portfolio into green technologies while limiting the investment in the fossil energy sector. We show that the action space of the task is equivalent to the decomposed action space, and introduce a new reinforcement learning (RL) approach CAOSD, which is built on top of the decomposition. The experimental evaluation on real-world Nasdaq-100 data demonstrates that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CRL benchmarks for portfolio optimization.

Predicting legal judgments with reliable confidence is paramount for responsible legal AI applications. While transformer-based deep neural networks (DNNs) like BERT have demonstrated promise in legal tasks, accurately assessing their prediction confidence remains crucial. We present a novel Bayesian approach called BayesJudge that harnesses the synergy between deep learning and deep Gaussian Processes to quantify uncertainty through Bayesian kernel Monte Carlo dropout. Our method leverages informative priors and flexible data modelling via kernels, surpassing existing methods in both predictive accuracy and confidence estimation as indicated through brier score. Extensive evaluations of public legal datasets showcase our model's superior performance across diverse tasks. We also introduce an optimal solution to automate the scrutiny of unreliable predictions, resulting in a significant increase in the accuracy of the model's predictions by up to 27\%. By empowering judges and legal professionals with more reliable information, our work paves the way for trustworthy and transparent legal AI applications that facilitate informed decisions grounded in both knowledge and quantified uncertainty.

Current approaches to learning cooperative behaviors in multi-agent settings assume relatively restrictive settings. In standard fully cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, the learning algorithm controls \textit{all} agents in the scenario, while in ad hoc teamwork, the learning algorithm usually assumes control over only a $\textit{single}$ agent in the scenario. However, many cooperative settings in the real world are much less restrictive. For example, in an autonomous driving scenario, a company might train its cars with the same learning algorithm, yet once on the road, these cars must cooperate with cars from another company. Towards generalizing the class of scenarios that cooperative learning methods can address, we introduce $N$-agent ad hoc teamwork, in which a set of autonomous agents must interact and cooperate with dynamically varying numbers and types of teammates at evaluation time. This paper formalizes the problem, and proposes the $\textit{Policy Optimization with Agent Modelling}$ (POAM) algorithm. POAM is a policy gradient, multi-agent reinforcement learning approach to the NAHT problem, that enables adaptation to diverse teammate behaviors by learning representations of teammate behaviors. Empirical evaluation on StarCraft II tasks shows that POAM improves cooperative task returns compared to baseline approaches, and enables out-of-distribution generalization to unseen teammates.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of embodied multi-agent cooperation, where decentralized agents must cooperate given only partial egocentric views of the world. To effectively plan in this setting, in contrast to learning world dynamics in a single-agent scenario, we must simulate world dynamics conditioned on an arbitrary number of agents' actions given only partial egocentric visual observations of the world. To address this issue of partial observability, we first train generative models to estimate the overall world state given partial egocentric observations. To enable accurate simulation of multiple sets of actions on this world state, we then propose to learn a compositional world model for multi-agent cooperation by factorizing the naturally composable joint actions of multiple agents and compositionally generating the video. By leveraging this compositional world model, in combination with Vision Language Models to infer the actions of other agents, we can use a tree search procedure to integrate these modules and facilitate online cooperative planning. To evaluate the efficacy of our methods, we create two challenging embodied multi-agent long-horizon cooperation tasks using the ThreeDWorld simulator and conduct experiments with 2-4 agents. The results show our compositional world model is effective and the framework enables the embodied agents to cooperate efficiently with different agents across various tasks and an arbitrary number of agents, showing the promising future of our proposed framework. More videos can be found at https://vis-www.cs.umass.edu/combo/.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms often struggle to learn policies that generalize to novel situations due to issues such as causal confusion, overfitting to irrelevant factors, and failure to isolate control of state factors. These issues stem from a common source: a failure to accurately identify and exploit state-specific causal relationships in the environment. While some prior works in RL aim to identify these relationships explicitly, they rely on informal domain-specific heuristics such as spatial and temporal proximity. Actual causality offers a principled and general framework for determining the causes of particular events. However, existing definitions of actual cause often attribute causality to a large number of events, even if many of them rarely influence the outcome. Prior work on actual causality proposes normality as a solution to this problem, but its existing implementations are challenging to scale to complex and continuous-valued RL environments. This paper introduces functional actual cause (FAC), a framework that uses context-specific independencies in the environment to restrict the set of actual causes. We additionally introduce Joint Optimization for Actual Cause Inference (JACI), an algorithm that learns from observational data to infer functional actual causes. We demonstrate empirically that FAC agrees with known results on a suite of examples from the actual causality literature, and JACI identifies actual causes with significantly higher accuracy than existing heuristic methods in a set of complex, continuous-valued environments.

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what to do with the uncertain predictions if they appear? First, we proposed an uncertainty-aware negative log-likelihood loss for the case of N-dimensional multivariate normal distribution with spherical variance matrix to the solution of N-classes classification tasks. The loss is similar to the heteroscedastic regression loss. The proposed model regularizes uncertain predictions, and trains to calculate both the predictions and their uncertainty estimations. The model fits well with the label smoothing technique. Second, we expanded the limits of data augmentation at the training and test stages, and made the trained model to give multiple predictions for a given number of augmented versions of each test sample. Given the multi-view predictions together with their uncertainties and confidences, we proposed several methods to calculate final predictions, including mode values and bin counts with soft and hard weights. For the latter method, we formalized the model tuning task in the form of multimodal optimization with non-differentiable criteria of maximum accuracy, and applied particle swarm optimization to solve the tuning task. The proposed methodology was tested using CIFAR-10 dataset with clean and noisy labels and demonstrated good results in comparison with other uncertainty estimation methods related to sample selection, co-teaching, and label smoothing.

Finding an available on-street parking spot is a relevant problem of day-to-day life. In recent years, cities such as Melbourne and San Francisco deployed sensors that provide real-time information about the occupation of parking spots. Finding a free parking spot in such a smart environment can be modeled and solved as a Markov decision process (MDP). The problem has to consider uncertainty as available parking spots might not remain available until arrival due to other vehicles also claiming spots in the meantime. Knowing the parking intention of every vehicle in the environment would eliminate this uncertainty. Unfortunately, it does currently not seem realistic to have such data from all vehicles. In contrast, acquiring data from a subset of vehicles or a vehicle fleet appears feasible and has the potential to reduce uncertainty. In this paper, we examine the question of how useful sharing data within a vehicle fleet might be for the search times of particular drivers. We use fleet data to better estimate the availability of parking spots at arrival. Since optimal solutions for large scenarios are infeasible, we base our method on approximate solutions, which have been shown to perform well in single-agent settings. Our experiments are conducted on a simulation using real-world and synthetic data from the city of Melbourne. The results indicate that fleet data can significantly reduce search times for an available parking spot.