Portfolio optimization tasks describe sequential decision problems in which the investor's wealth is distributed across a set of assets. Allocation constraints are used to enforce minimal or maximal investments into particular subsets of assets to control for objectives such as limiting the portfolio's exposure to a certain sector due to environmental concerns. Although methods for constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) can optimize policies while considering allocation constraints, it can be observed that these general methods yield suboptimal results. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to handle allocation constraints based on a decomposition of the constraint action space into a set of unconstrained allocation problems. In particular, we examine this approach for the case of two constraints. For example, an investor may wish to invest at least a certain percentage of the portfolio into green technologies while limiting the investment in the fossil energy sector. We show that the action space of the task is equivalent to the decomposed action space, and introduce a new reinforcement learning (RL) approach CAOSD, which is built on top of the decomposition. The experimental evaluation on real-world Nasdaq-100 data demonstrates that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CRL benchmarks for portfolio optimization.

Predicting legal judgments with reliable confidence is paramount for responsible legal AI applications. While transformer-based deep neural networks (DNNs) like BERT have demonstrated promise in legal tasks, accurately assessing their prediction confidence remains crucial. We present a novel Bayesian approach called BayesJudge that harnesses the synergy between deep learning and deep Gaussian Processes to quantify uncertainty through Bayesian kernel Monte Carlo dropout. Our method leverages informative priors and flexible data modelling via kernels, surpassing existing methods in both predictive accuracy and confidence estimation as indicated through brier score. Extensive evaluations of public legal datasets showcase our model's superior performance across diverse tasks. We also introduce an optimal solution to automate the scrutiny of unreliable predictions, resulting in a significant increase in the accuracy of the model's predictions by up to 27\%. By empowering judges and legal professionals with more reliable information, our work paves the way for trustworthy and transparent legal AI applications that facilitate informed decisions grounded in both knowledge and quantified uncertainty.

Current approaches to learning cooperative behaviors in multi-agent settings assume relatively restrictive settings. In standard fully cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, the learning algorithm controls \textit{all} agents in the scenario, while in ad hoc teamwork, the learning algorithm usually assumes control over only a $\textit{single}$ agent in the scenario. However, many cooperative settings in the real world are much less restrictive. For example, in an autonomous driving scenario, a company might train its cars with the same learning algorithm, yet once on the road, these cars must cooperate with cars from another company. Towards generalizing the class of scenarios that cooperative learning methods can address, we introduce $N$-agent ad hoc teamwork, in which a set of autonomous agents must interact and cooperate with dynamically varying numbers and types of teammates at evaluation time. This paper formalizes the problem, and proposes the $\textit{Policy Optimization with Agent Modelling}$ (POAM) algorithm. POAM is a policy gradient, multi-agent reinforcement learning approach to the NAHT problem, that enables adaptation to diverse teammate behaviors by learning representations of teammate behaviors. Empirical evaluation on StarCraft II tasks shows that POAM improves cooperative task returns compared to baseline approaches, and enables out-of-distribution generalization to unseen teammates.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of embodied multi-agent cooperation, where decentralized agents must cooperate given only partial egocentric views of the world. To effectively plan in this setting, in contrast to learning world dynamics in a single-agent scenario, we must simulate world dynamics conditioned on an arbitrary number of agents' actions given only partial egocentric visual observations of the world. To address this issue of partial observability, we first train generative models to estimate the overall world state given partial egocentric observations. To enable accurate simulation of multiple sets of actions on this world state, we then propose to learn a compositional world model for multi-agent cooperation by factorizing the naturally composable joint actions of multiple agents and compositionally generating the video. By leveraging this compositional world model, in combination with Vision Language Models to infer the actions of other agents, we can use a tree search procedure to integrate these modules and facilitate online cooperative planning. To evaluate the efficacy of our methods, we create two challenging embodied multi-agent long-horizon cooperation tasks using the ThreeDWorld simulator and conduct experiments with 2-4 agents. The results show our compositional world model is effective and the framework enables the embodied agents to cooperate efficiently with different agents across various tasks and an arbitrary number of agents, showing the promising future of our proposed framework. More videos can be found at https://vis-www.cs.umass.edu/combo/.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms often struggle to learn policies that generalize to novel situations due to issues such as causal confusion, overfitting to irrelevant factors, and failure to isolate control of state factors. These issues stem from a common source: a failure to accurately identify and exploit state-specific causal relationships in the environment. While some prior works in RL aim to identify these relationships explicitly, they rely on informal domain-specific heuristics such as spatial and temporal proximity. Actual causality offers a principled and general framework for determining the causes of particular events. However, existing definitions of actual cause often attribute causality to a large number of events, even if many of them rarely influence the outcome. Prior work on actual causality proposes normality as a solution to this problem, but its existing implementations are challenging to scale to complex and continuous-valued RL environments. This paper introduces functional actual cause (FAC), a framework that uses context-specific independencies in the environment to restrict the set of actual causes. We additionally introduce Joint Optimization for Actual Cause Inference (JACI), an algorithm that learns from observational data to infer functional actual causes. We demonstrate empirically that FAC agrees with known results on a suite of examples from the actual causality literature, and JACI identifies actual causes with significantly higher accuracy than existing heuristic methods in a set of complex, continuous-valued environments.

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what to do with the uncertain predictions if they appear? First, we proposed an uncertainty-aware negative log-likelihood loss for the case of N-dimensional multivariate normal distribution with spherical variance matrix to the solution of N-classes classification tasks. The loss is similar to the heteroscedastic regression loss. The proposed model regularizes uncertain predictions, and trains to calculate both the predictions and their uncertainty estimations. The model fits well with the label smoothing technique. Second, we expanded the limits of data augmentation at the training and test stages, and made the trained model to give multiple predictions for a given number of augmented versions of each test sample. Given the multi-view predictions together with their uncertainties and confidences, we proposed several methods to calculate final predictions, including mode values and bin counts with soft and hard weights. For the latter method, we formalized the model tuning task in the form of multimodal optimization with non-differentiable criteria of maximum accuracy, and applied particle swarm optimization to solve the tuning task. The proposed methodology was tested using CIFAR-10 dataset with clean and noisy labels and demonstrated good results in comparison with other uncertainty estimation methods related to sample selection, co-teaching, and label smoothing.

Finding an available on-street parking spot is a relevant problem of day-to-day life. In recent years, cities such as Melbourne and San Francisco deployed sensors that provide real-time information about the occupation of parking spots. Finding a free parking spot in such a smart environment can be modeled and solved as a Markov decision process (MDP). The problem has to consider uncertainty as available parking spots might not remain available until arrival due to other vehicles also claiming spots in the meantime. Knowing the parking intention of every vehicle in the environment would eliminate this uncertainty. Unfortunately, it does currently not seem realistic to have such data from all vehicles. In contrast, acquiring data from a subset of vehicles or a vehicle fleet appears feasible and has the potential to reduce uncertainty. In this paper, we examine the question of how useful sharing data within a vehicle fleet might be for the search times of particular drivers. We use fleet data to better estimate the availability of parking spots at arrival. Since optimal solutions for large scenarios are infeasible, we base our method on approximate solutions, which have been shown to perform well in single-agent settings. Our experiments are conducted on a simulation using real-world and synthetic data from the city of Melbourne. The results indicate that fleet data can significantly reduce search times for an available parking spot.

This paper presents a computationally efficient and distributed speaker diarization framework for networked IoT-style audio devices. The work proposes a Federated Learning model which can identify the participants in a conversation without the requirement of a large audio database for training. An unsupervised online update mechanism is proposed for the Federated Learning model which depends on cosine similarity of speaker embeddings. Moreover, the proposed diarization system solves the problem of speaker change detection via. unsupervised segmentation techniques using Hotelling's t-squared Statistic and Bayesian Information Criterion. In this new approach, speaker change detection is biased around detected quasi-silences, which reduces the severity of the trade-off between the missed detection and false detection rates. Additionally, the computational overhead due to frame-by-frame identification of speakers is reduced via. unsupervised clustering of speech segments. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed training method in the presence of non-IID speech data. It also shows a considerable improvement in the reduction of false and missed detection at the segmentation stage, while reducing the computational overhead. Improved accuracy and reduced computational cost makes the mechanism suitable for real-time speaker diarization across a distributed IoT audio network.

In generative models with obscured likelihood, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is often the tool of last resort for inference. However, ABC demands many prior parameter trials to keep only a small fraction that passes an acceptance test. To accelerate ABC rejection sampling, this paper develops a self-aware framework that learns from past trials and errors. We apply recursive partitioning classifiers on the ABC lookup table to sequentially refine high-likelihood regions into boxes. Each box is regarded as an arm in a binary bandit problem treating ABC acceptance as a reward. Each arm has a proclivity for being chosen for the next ABC evaluation, depending on the prior distribution and past rejections. The method places more splits in those areas where the likelihood resides, shying away from low-probability regions destined for ABC rejections. We provide two versions: (1) ABC-Tree for posterior sampling, and (2) ABC-MAP for maximum a posteriori estimation. We demonstrate accurate ABC approximability at much lower simulation cost. We justify the use of our tree-based bandit algorithms with nearly optimal regret bounds. Finally, we successfully apply our approach to the problem of masked image classification using deep generative models.

The growing capabilities of AI raise questions about their trustworthiness in healthcare, particularly due to opaque decision-making and limited data availability. This paper proposes a novel approach to address these challenges, introducing a Bayesian Monte Carlo Dropout model with kernel modelling. Our model is designed to enhance reliability on small medical datasets, a crucial barrier to the wider adoption of AI in healthcare. This model leverages existing language models for improved effectiveness and seamlessly integrates with current workflows. We demonstrate significant improvements in reliability, even with limited data, offering a promising step towards building trust in AI-driven medical predictions and unlocking its potential to improve patient care.