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 Learning Graphical Models


GRSN: Gated Recurrent Spiking Neurons for POMDPs and MARL

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are widely applied in various fields due to their energy-efficient and fast-inference capabilities. Applying SNNs to reinforcement learning (RL) can significantly reduce the computational resource requirements for agents and improve the algorithm's performance under resource-constrained conditions. However, in current spiking reinforcement learning (SRL) algorithms, the simulation results of multiple time steps can only correspond to a single-step decision in RL. This is quite different from the real temporal dynamics in the brain and also fails to fully exploit the capacity of SNNs to process temporal data. In order to address this temporal mismatch issue and further take advantage of the inherent temporal dynamics of spiking neurons, we propose a novel temporal alignment paradigm (T AP) that leverages the single-step update of spiking neurons to accumulate historical state information in RL and introduces gated units to enhance the memory capacity of spiking neurons. Experimental results show that our method can solve partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and multi-agent cooperation problems with similar performance as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) but with about 50% power consumption.


MDDD: Manifold-based Domain Adaptation with Dynamic Distribution for Non-Deep Transfer Learning in Cross-subject and Cross-session EEG-based Emotion Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emotion decoding using Electroencephalography (EEG)-based affective brain-computer interfaces represents a significant area within the field of affective computing. In the present study, we propose a novel non-deep transfer learning method, termed as Manifold-based Domain adaptation with Dynamic Distribution (MDDD). The proposed MDDD includes four main modules: manifold feature transformation, dynamic distribution alignment, classifier learning, and ensemble learning. The data undergoes a transformation onto an optimal Grassmann manifold space, enabling dynamic alignment of the source and target domains. This process prioritizes both marginal and conditional distributions according to their significance, ensuring enhanced adaptation efficiency across various types of data. In the classifier learning, the principle of structural risk minimization is integrated to develop robust classification models. This is complemented by dynamic distribution alignment, which refines the classifier iteratively. Additionally, the ensemble learning module aggregates the classifiers obtained at different stages of the optimization process, which leverages the diversity of the classifiers to enhance the overall prediction accuracy. The experimental results indicate that MDDD outperforms traditional non-deep learning methods, achieving an average improvement of 3.54%, and is comparable to deep learning methods. This suggests that MDDD could be a promising method for enhancing the utility and applicability of aBCIs in real-world scenarios.


Na\"ive Bayes and Random Forest for Crop Yield Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study analyzes crop yield prediction in India from 1997 to 2020, focusing on various crops and key environmental factors. It aims to predict agricultural yields by utilizing advanced machine learning techniques like Linear Regression, Decision Tree, KNN, Na\"ive Bayes, K-Mean Clustering, and Random Forest. The models, particularly Na\"ive Bayes and Random Forest, demonstrate high effectiveness, as shown through data visualizations. The research concludes that integrating these analytical methods significantly enhances the accuracy and reliability of crop yield predictions, offering vital contributions to agricultural data science.


On uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graduate School of Information Science and Technology Osaka University Osaka, Japan thanasutives@ai.sanken.osaka-u.ac.jp Ken-ichi Fukui SANKEN (The Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research) Osaka University Osaka, Japan fukui@ai.sanken.osaka-u.ac.jp The uncertainty-penalized information criterion (UBIC) has been proposed as a new model-selection criterion for data-driven partial differential equation (PDE) discovery. In this paper, we show that using the UBIC is equivalent to employing the conventional BIC to a set of overparameterized models derived from the potential regression models of different complexity measures. The result indicates that the asymptotic property of the UBIC and BIC holds indifferently.


Probabilistic Numeric SMC Sampling for Bayesian Nonlinear System Identification in Continuous Time

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In engineering, accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from data contaminated by noise is both essential and complex. Established Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, used for the Bayesian identification of these systems, facilitate the quantification of uncertainty in the parameter identification process. A significant challenge in this context is the numerical integration of continuous-time ordinary differential equations (ODEs), crucial for aligning theoretical models with discretely sampled data. This integration introduces additional numerical uncertainty, a factor that is often over looked. To address this issue, the field of probabilistic numerics combines numerical methods, such as numerical integration, with probabilistic modeling to offer a more comprehensive analysis of total uncertainty. By retaining the accuracy of classical deterministic methods, these probabilistic approaches offer a deeper understanding of the uncertainty inherent in the inference process. This paper demonstrates the application of a probabilistic numerical method for solving ODEs in the joint parameter-state identification of nonlinear dynamic systems. The presented approach efficiently identifies latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements. Simultaneously incorporating probabilistic solutions to the ODE in the identification challenge. The methodology's primary advantage lies in its capability to produce posterior distributions over system parameters, thereby representing the inherent uncertainties in both the data and the identification process.


GIST: Gibbs self-tuning for locally adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a novel and flexible framework for localized tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers by sampling the algorithm's tuning parameters conditionally based on the position and momentum at each step. For adaptively sampling path lengths, we show that randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, the No-U-Turn Sampler, and the Apogee-to-Apogee Path Sampler all fit within this unified framework as special cases. The framework is illustrated with a simple alternative to the No-U-Turn Sampler for locally adapting path lengths.


Variational Bayesian surrogate modelling with application to robust design optimisation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Surrogate models provide a quick-to-evaluate approximation to complex computational models and are essential for multi-query problems like design optimisation. The inputs of current computational models are usually high-dimensional and uncertain. We consider Bayesian inference for constructing statistical surrogates with input uncertainties and intrinsic dimensionality reduction. The surrogates are trained by fitting to data from prevalent deterministic computational models. The assumed prior probability density of the surrogate is a Gaussian process. We determine the respective posterior probability density and parameters of the posited statistical model using variational Bayes. The non-Gaussian posterior is approximated by a simpler trial density with free variational parameters and the discrepancy between them is measured using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We employ the stochastic gradient method to compute the variational parameters and other statistical model parameters by minimising the KL divergence. We demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the proposed reduced dimension variational Gaussian process (RDVGP) surrogate on illustrative and robust structural optimisation problems with cost functions depending on a weighted sum of the mean and standard deviation of model outputs.


Generalizing Multi-Step Inverse Models for Representation Learning to Finite-Memory POMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discovering an informative, or agent-centric, state representation that encodes only the relevant information while discarding the irrelevant is a key challenge towards scaling reinforcement learning algorithms and efficiently applying them to downstream tasks. Prior works studied this problem in high-dimensional Markovian environments, when the current observation may be a complex object but is sufficient to decode the informative state. In this work, we consider the problem of discovering the agent-centric state in the more challenging high-dimensional non-Markovian setting, when the state can be decoded from a sequence of past observations. We establish that generalized inverse models can be adapted for learning agent-centric state representation for this task. Our results include asymptotic theory in the deterministic dynamics setting as well as counter-examples for alternative intuitive algorithms. We complement these findings with a thorough empirical study on the agent-centric state discovery abilities of the different alternatives we put forward. Particularly notable is our analysis of past actions, where we show that these can be a double-edged sword: making the algorithms more successful when used correctly and causing dramatic failure when used incorrectly.


PGNAA Spectral Classification of Aluminium and Copper Alloys with Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we explore the optimization of metal recycling with a focus on real-time differentiation between alloys of copper and aluminium. Spectral data, obtained through Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis (PGNAA), is utilized for classification. The study compares data from two detectors, cerium bromide (CeBr$_{3}$) and high purity germanium (HPGe), considering their energy resolution and sensitivity. We test various data generation, preprocessing, and classification methods, with Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) and Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) yielding the best results. The study also highlights the impact of different detector types on classification accuracy, with CeBr$_{3}$ excelling in short measurement times and HPGe performing better in longer durations. The findings suggest the importance of selecting the appropriate detector and methodology based on specific application requirements.


DEQ-MCL: Discrete-Event Queue-based Monte-Carlo Localization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatial cognition in hippocampal formation is posited to play a crucial role in the development of self-localization techniques for robots. In this paper, we propose a self-localization approach, DEQ-MCL, based on the discrete event queue hypothesis associated with phase precession within the hippocampal formation. Our method effectively estimates the posterior distribution of states, encompassing both past, present, and future states that are organized as a queue. This approach enables the smoothing of the posterior distribution of past states using current observations and the weighting of the joint distribution by considering the feasibility of future states. Our findings indicate that the proposed method holds promise for augmenting self-localization performance in indoor environments.