Neural networks are often overconfident about their predictions, which undermines their reliability and trustworthiness. In this work, we present a novel technique, named Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training (EUAT), which aims to enhance the ability of neural models to estimate their uncertainty correctly, namely to be highly uncertain when they output inaccurate predictions and low uncertain when their output is accurate. The EUAT approach operates during the model's training phase by selectively employing two loss functions depending on whether the training examples are correctly or incorrectly predicted by the model. This allows for pursuing the twofold goal of i) minimizing model uncertainty for correctly predicted inputs and ii) maximizing uncertainty for mispredicted inputs, while preserving the model's misprediction rate. We evaluate EUAT using diverse neural models and datasets in the image recognition domains considering both non-adversarial and adversarial settings. The results show that EUAT outperforms existing approaches for uncertainty estimation (including other uncertainty-aware training techniques, calibration, ensembles, and DEUP) by providing uncertainty estimates that not only have higher quality when evaluated via statistical metrics (e.g., correlation with residuals) but also when employed to build binary classifiers that decide whether the model's output can be trusted or not and under distributional data shifts.

The emerging research shows that lncRNAs are associated with a series of complex human diseases. However, most of the existing methods have limitations in identifying nonlinear lncRNA-disease associations (LDAs), and it remains a huge challenge to predict new LDAs. Therefore, the accurate identification of LDAs is very important for the warning and treatment of diseases. In this work, multiple sources of biomedical data are fully utilized to construct characteristics of lncRNAs and diseases, and linear and nonlinear characteristics are effectively integrated. Furthermore, a novel deep learning model based on graph attention automatic encoder is proposed, called HGATELDA. To begin with, the linear characteristics of lncRNAs and diseases are created by the miRNA-lncRNA interaction matrix and miRNA-disease interaction matrix. Following this, the nonlinear features of diseases and lncRNAs are extracted using a graph attention auto-encoder, which largely retains the critical information and effectively aggregates the neighborhood information of nodes. In the end, LDAs can be predicted by fusing the linear and nonlinear characteristics of diseases and lncRNA. The HGATELDA model achieves an impressive AUC value of 0.9692 when evaluated using a 5-fold cross-validation indicating its superior performance in comparison to several recent prediction models. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of HGATELDA in identifying novel LDAs is further demonstrated by case studies. the HGATELDA model appears to be a viable computational model for predicting LDAs.

The ability to autonomously assemble structures is crucial for the development of future space infrastructure. However, the unpredictable conditions of space pose significant challenges for robotic systems, necessitating the development of advanced learning techniques to enable autonomous assembly. In this study, we present a novel approach for learning autonomous peg-in-hole assembly in the context of space robotics. Our focus is on enhancing the generalization and adaptability of autonomous systems through deep reinforcement learning. By integrating procedural generation and domain randomization, we train agents in a highly parallelized simulation environment across a spectrum of diverse scenarios with the aim of acquiring a robust policy. The proposed approach is evaluated using three distinct reinforcement learning algorithms to investigate the trade-offs among various paradigms. We demonstrate the adaptability of our agents to novel scenarios and assembly sequences while emphasizing the potential of leveraging advanced simulation techniques for robot learning in space. Our findings set the stage for future advancements in intelligent robotic systems capable of supporting ambitious space missions and infrastructure development beyond Earth.

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable model, such as a Hidden Markov model (HMM), these methods are designed to only estimate the parameters, rather than the joint distribution of the parameters and the hidden states. Naive application of these methods to a HMM, ignoring the inference of this joint posterior distribution, will thus produce an inaccurate estimate of the posterior predictive distribution, in turn hampering the assessment of goodness-of-fit. To rectify this problem, we propose a novel, sample-efficient likelihood-free method for estimating the high-dimensional hidden states of an implicit HMM. Our approach relies on learning directly the intractable posterior distribution of the hidden states, using an autoregressive-flow, by exploiting the Markov property. Upon evaluating our approach on some implicit HMMs, we found that the quality of the estimates retrieved using our method is comparable to what can be achieved using a much more computationally expensive SMC algorithm.

We present new Bayesian Last Layer models in the setting of multivariate regression under heteroscedastic noise, and propose an optimization algorithm for parameter learning. Bayesian Last Layer combines Bayesian modelling of the predictive distribution with neural networks for parameterization of the prior, and has the attractive property of uncertainty quantification with a single forward pass. The proposed framework is capable of disentangling the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, and can be used to transfer a canonically trained deep neural network to new data domains with uncertainty-aware capability.

Practical Bayesian learning often requires (1) online inference, (2) dynamic models, and (3) ensembling over multiple different models. Recent advances have shown how to use random feature approximations to achieve scalable, online ensembling of Gaussian processes with desirable theoretical properties and fruitful applications. One key to these methods' success is the inclusion of a random walk on the model parameters, which makes models dynamic. We show that these methods can be generalized easily to any basis expansion model and that using alternative basis expansions, such as Hilbert space Gaussian processes, often results in better performance. To simplify the process of choosing a specific basis expansion, our method's generality also allows the ensembling of several entirely different models, for example, a Gaussian process and polynomial regression. Finally, we propose a novel method to ensemble static and dynamic models together.

Recently, there has been a significant focus on exploring the theoretical aspects of deep learning, especially regarding its performance in classification tasks. Bayesian deep learning has emerged as a unified probabilistic framework, seeking to integrate deep learning with Bayesian methodologies seamlessly. However, there exists a gap in the theoretical understanding of Bayesian approaches in deep learning for classification. This study presents an attempt to bridge that gap. By leveraging PAC-Bayes bounds techniques, we present theoretical results on the prediction or misclassification error of a probabilistic approach utilizing Spike-and-Slab priors for sparse deep learning in classification. We establish non-asymptotic results for the prediction error. Additionally, we demonstrate that, by considering different architectures, our results can achieve minimax optimal rates in both low and high-dimensional settings, up to a logarithmic factor. Moreover, our additional logarithmic term yields slight improvements over previous works. Additionally, we propose and analyze an automated model selection approach aimed at optimally choosing a network architecture with guaranteed optimality.

In the realm of multi-arm bandit problems, the Gittins index policy is known to be optimal in maximizing the expected total discounted reward obtained from pulling the Markovian arms. In most realistic scenarios however, the Markovian state transition probabilities are unknown and therefore the Gittins indices cannot be computed. One can then resort to reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that explore the state space to learn these indices while exploiting to maximize the reward collected. In this work, we propose tabular (QGI) and Deep RL (DGN) algorithms for learning the Gittins index that are based on the retirement formulation for the multi-arm bandit problem. When compared with existing RL algorithms that learn the Gittins index, our algorithms have a lower run time, require less storage space (small Q-table size in QGI and smaller replay buffer in DGN), and illustrate better empirical convergence to the Gittins index. This makes our algorithm well suited for problems with large state spaces and is a viable alternative to existing methods. As a key application, we demonstrate the use of our algorithms in minimizing the mean flowtime in a job scheduling problem when jobs are available in batches and have an unknown service time distribution. Markov decision processes (MDPs) are controlled stochastic processes where a decision maker is required to control the evolution of a Markov chain over its states space by suitably choosing actions that maximize the long-term payoffs. An interesting class of MDPs are the multi-armed bandits (MAB) where given K Markov chains (each Markov chain corresponds to a bandit arm), the decision maker is confronted with a K-tuple (state of each arm) and must choose to pull or activate exactly one arm and collect a corresponding reward.

Consider numerical observations; it is common to calculate their mean and refer to it as central tendency. There are, however, different measures of mean [4]. These measurements are sometimes grouped into families, like Lehmer and Hölder. Distinguishing these measures and better understanding their use involves identifying the link between them and probability density functions (PDFs). For example, the arithmetic mean is the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the position parameter for the normal PDF and the scale parameter for the exponential PDF. For the families of Lehmer and Hölder means, such an interpretation has only recently been proposed for the case of PDFs in the case of the univariate exponential family Let's consider digital observations; it is often common to calculate their mean and designate it as a central tendency. However, there are various measures of the average [2]. These measures are sometimes grouped into families, such as Lehmer and Hölder.

Humans have exceptional tactile sensing capabilities, which they can leverage to solve challenging, partially observable tasks that cannot be solved from visual observation alone. Research in tactile sensing attempts to unlock this new input modality for robots. Lately, these sensors have become cheaper and, thus, widely available. At the same time, the question of how to integrate them into control loops is still an active area of research, with central challenges being partial observability and the contact-rich nature of manipulation tasks. In this study, we propose to use Reinforcement Learning to learn an end-to-end policy, mapping directly from tactile sensor readings to actions. Specifically, we use Dreamer-v3 on a challenging, partially observable robotic insertion task with a Franka Research 3, both in simulation and on a real system. For the real setup, we built a robotic platform capable of resetting itself fully autonomously, allowing for extensive training runs without human supervision. Our preliminary results indicate that Dreamer is capable of utilizing tactile inputs to solve robotic manipulation tasks in simulation and reality. Furthermore, we find that providing the robot with tactile feedback generally improves task performance, though, in our setup, we do not yet include other sensing modalities. In the future, we plan to utilize our platform to evaluate a wide range of other Reinforcement Learning algorithms on tactile tasks.