A common problem for agents operating in real-world environments is that the response of an environment to their actions may be non-deterministic and observed through noise. This renders environmental state and progress towards completing a task latent. Despite recent impressive demonstrations of LLM's reasoning abilities on various benchmarks, whether LLMs can build estimates of latent state and leverage them for reasoning has not been explicitly studied. We investigate this problem in the real-world domain of autonomous UI agents. We establish that appropriately prompting LLMs in a zero-shot manner can be formally understood as forming point estimates of latent state in a textual space. In the context of autonomous UI agents we then show that LLMs used in this manner are more than $76\%$ accurate at inferring various aspects of latent state, such as performed (vs. commanded) actions and task progression. Using both public and internal benchmarks and three reasoning methods (zero-shot, CoT-SC & ReAct), we show that LLM-powered agents that explicitly estimate and reason about latent state are able to successfully complete up to 1.6x more tasks than those that do not.

Abstract--Graph Machine Learning (Graph ML) has witnessed substantial advancements in recent years. With their remarkable ability to process graph-structured data, Graph ML techniques have been extensively utilized across diverse applications, including critical domains like finance, healthcare, and transportation. Despite their societal benefits, recent research highlights significant safety concerns associated with the widespread use of Graph ML models. Lacking safety-focused designs, these models can produce unreliable predictions, demonstrate poor generalizability, and compromise data confidentiality. In high-stakes scenarios such as financial fraud detection, these vulnerabilities could jeopardize both individuals and society at large. Therefore, it is imperative to prioritize the development of safety-oriented Graph ML models to mitigate these risks and enhance public confidence in their applications. In this survey paper, we explore three critical aspects vital for enhancing safety in Graph ML: reliability, generalizability, and confidentiality. We categorize and analyze threats to each aspect under three headings: model threats, data threats, and attack threats. This novel taxonomy guides our review of effective strategies to protect against these threats. Our systematic review lays a groundwork for future research aimed at developing practical, safety-centered Graph ML models. Furthermore, we highlight the significance of safe Graph ML practices and suggest promising avenues for further investigation in this crucial area. To prevalent across a wide range of real-world applications, narrow this gap, our survey seeks to resolve two critical including drug discovery [15], traffic forecasting questions: (1) What are the key aspects involved in the safety [76], and disease diagnosis [96]. Within these domains, issues of Graph ML? (2) What specific types of threats might Graph Machine Learning (Graph ML) plays a pivotal role in arise within each aspect, and how can they be effectively modeling this data and executing graph-based predictive handled? To address the first question, we introduce a novel tasks [83], [187]. However, as the scope of Graph ML taxonomy that facilitates a thorough categorization of safety applications expands, concerns about their underlying safety issues in Graph ML. To answer the second question, we issues intensify [37].

We propose a new notion of uniqueness for the adversarial Bayes classifier in the setting of binary classification. Analyzing this concept produces a simple procedure for computing all adversarial Bayes classifiers for a well-motivated family of one dimensional data distributions. This characterization is then leveraged to show that as the perturbation radius increases, certain the regularity of adversarial Bayes classifiers improves. Various examples demonstrate that the boundary of the adversarial Bayes classifier frequently lies near the boundary of the Bayes classifier.

One can improve predictability in the unknown domain by combining forecasts of imperfect complex computational models using a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework. In many cases, however, the models used in the mixing process are similar. In addition to contaminating the model space, the existence of such similar, or even redundant, models during the multimodeling process can result in misinterpretation of results and deterioration of predictive performance. In this work we describe a method based on the Principal Component Analysis that eliminates model redundancy. We show that by adding model orthogonalization to the proposed Bayesian Model Combination framework, one can arrive at better prediction accuracy and reach excellent uncertainty quantification performance.

We model a Markov decision process, parametrized by an unknown parameter, and study the asymptotic behavior of a sampling-based algorithm, called Thompson sampling. The standard definition of regret is not always suitable to evaluate a policy, especially when the underlying chain structure is general. We show that the standard (expected) regret can grow (super-)linearly and fails to capture the notion of learning in realistic settings with non-trivial state evolution. By decomposing the standard (expected) regret, we develop a new metric, called the expected residual regret, which forgets the immutable consequences of past actions. Instead, it measures regret against the optimal reward moving forward from the current period. We show that the expected residual regret of the Thompson sampling algorithm is upper bounded by a term which converges exponentially fast to 0. We present conditions under which the posterior sampling error of Thompson sampling converges to 0 almost surely. We then introduce the probabilistic version of the expected residual regret and present conditions under which it converges to 0 almost surely. Thus, we provide a viable concept of learning for sampling algorithms which will serve useful in broader settings than had been considered previously.

Sentiment analysis is crucial for understanding public opinion and consumer behavior. Existing models face challenges with linguistic diversity, generalizability, and explainability. We propose TRABSA, a hybrid framework integrating transformer-based architectures, attention mechanisms, and BiLSTM networks to address this. Leveraging RoBERTa-trained on 124M tweets, we bridge gaps in sentiment analysis benchmarks, ensuring state-of-the-art accuracy. Augmenting datasets with tweets from 32 countries and US states, we compare six word-embedding techniques and three lexicon-based labeling techniques, selecting the best for optimal sentiment analysis. TRABSA outperforms traditional ML and deep learning models with 94% accuracy and significant precision, recall, and F1-score gains. Evaluation across diverse datasets demonstrates consistent superiority and generalizability. SHAP and LIME analyses enhance interpretability, improving confidence in predictions. Our study facilitates pandemic resource management, aiding resource planning, policy formation, and vaccination tactics.

These emergencies are unexpected events that occur suddenly and result in or have the potential to result in significant casualties, property damage, ecological harm, and serious social consequences [147]. Throughout history, natural disasters (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, storms, floods, avalanches, droughts, and wildfires) and accident disasters (including environmental disasters, traffic accidents, explosions, and gas leaks) have caused numerous fatalities, infrastructure damage, and extensive economic loss. According to the Emergencies Database (EM-DAT), between 2000 and 2023, 5,922 public emergencies occurred, leading to 480,000 casualties and 3.5 trillion in economic losses, as shown in Figure 1 [1]. Therefore, it is increasingly vital to use data, information, and various models to predict potential public emergencies that jeopardize public safety and well-being. Predicting the cascade of information in the event deduction process under public emergencies assists governments, organizations, and individuals in taking proactive measures to mitigate the impact of emergencies and minimize damage. Public emergencies are classified into different categories. The most common categories of public emergencies include (1) Natural disasters, (2) Accident disasters.

Evolving consumer demands and market trends have led to businesses increasingly embracing a production approach that prioritizes flexibility and customization. Consequently, factory workers must engage in tasks that are more complex than before. Thus, productivity depends on each worker's skills in assembling products. Therefore, analyzing the behavior of a worker is crucial for work improvement. However, manual analysis is time consuming and does not provide quick and accurate feedback. Machine learning have been attempted to automate the analyses; however, most of these methods need several labels for training. To this end, we extend the Gaussian process hidden semi-Markov model (GP-HSMM), to enable the rapid and automated analysis of worker behavior without pre-training. The model does not require labeled data and can automatically and accurately segment continuous motions into motion classes. The proposed model is a probabilistic model that hierarchically connects GP-HSMM and HSMM, enabling the extraction of behavioral patterns with different granularities. Furthermore, it mutually infers the parameters between the GP-HSMM and HSMM, resulting in accurate motion pattern extraction. We applied the proposed method to motion data in which workers assembled products at an actual production site. The accuracy of behavior pattern extraction was evaluated using normalized Levenshtein distance (NLD). The smaller the value of NLD, the more accurate is the pattern extraction. The NLD of motion patterns captured by GP-HSMM and HSMM layers in our proposed method was 0.50 and 0.33, respectively, which are the smallest compared to that of the baseline methods.

Learning in simulation and transferring the learned policy to the real world has the potential to enable generalist robots. The key challenge of this approach is to address simulation-to-reality (sim-to-real) gaps. Previous methods often require domain-specific knowledge a priori. We argue that a straightforward way to obtain such knowledge is by asking humans to observe and assist robot policy execution in the real world. The robots can then learn from humans to close various sim-to-real gaps. We propose TRANSIC, a data-driven approach to enable successful sim-to-real transfer based on a human-in-the-loop framework. TRANSIC allows humans to augment simulation policies to overcome various unmodeled sim-to-real gaps holistically through intervention and online correction. Residual policies can be learned from human corrections and integrated with simulation policies for autonomous execution. We show that our approach can achieve successful sim-to-real transfer in complex and contact-rich manipulation tasks such as furniture assembly. Through synergistic integration of policies learned in simulation and from humans, TRANSIC is effective as a holistic approach to addressing various, often coexisting sim-to-real gaps. It displays attractive properties such as scaling with human effort. Videos and code are available at https://transic-robot.github.io/

Federated learning (FL) requires edge devices to perform local training and exchange information with a parameter server, leading to substantial energy consumption. A critical challenge in practical FL systems is the rapid energy depletion of battery-limited edge devices, which curtails their operational lifespan and affects the learning performance. To address this issue, we apply energy harvesting technique in FL systems to extract ambient energy for continuously powering edge devices. We first establish the convergence bound for the wireless FL system with energy harvesting devices, illustrating that the convergence is impacted by partial device participation and packet drops, both of which depend on the energy supply. To accelerate the convergence, we formulate a joint device scheduling and power control problem and model it as a Markov decision process (MDP). By solving this MDP, we derive the optimal transmission policy and demonstrate that it possesses a monotone structure with respect to the battery and channel states. To overcome the curse of dimensionality caused by the exponential complexity of computing the optimal policy, we propose a low-complexity algorithm, which is asymptotically optimal as the number of devices increases. Furthermore, for unknown channels and harvested energy statistics, we develop a structure-enhanced deep reinforcement learning algorithm that leverages the monotone structure of the optimal policy to improve the training performance. Finally, extensive numerical experiments on real-world datasets are presented to validate the theoretical results and corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.