Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks. Given that deterministic robustness often comes with significantly reduced accuracy, probabilistic robustness (i.e., the probability of having the same label with a vicinity is $\ge 1-\kappa$) has been proposed as a promising way of achieving robustness whilst maintaining accuracy. However, existing training methods for probabilistic robustness still experience non-trivial accuracy loss. It is unclear whether there is an upper bound on the accuracy when optimising towards probabilistic robustness, and whether there is a certain relationship between $\kappa$ and this bound. This work studies these problems from a Bayes error perspective. We find that while Bayes uncertainty does affect probabilistic robustness, its impact is smaller than that on deterministic robustness. This reduced Bayes uncertainty allows a higher upper bound on probabilistic robust accuracy than that on deterministic robust accuracy. Further, we prove that with optimal probabilistic robustness, each probabilistically robust input is also deterministically robust in a smaller vicinity. We also show that voting within the vicinity always improves probabilistic robust accuracy and the upper bound of probabilistic robust accuracy monotonically increases as $\kappa$ grows. Our empirical findings also align with our results.

Active search formalizes a specialized active learning setting where the goal is to collect members of a rare, valuable class. The state-of-the-art algorithm approximates the optimal Bayesian policy in a budget-aware manner, and has been shown to achieve impressive empirical performance in previous work. However, even this approximate policy has a superlinear computational complexity with respect to the size of the search problem, rendering its application impractical in large spaces or in real-time systems where decisions must be made quickly. We study the amortization of this policy by training a neural network to learn to search. To circumvent the difficulty of learning from scratch, we appeal to imitation learning techniques to mimic the behavior of the expert, expensive-to-compute policy. Our policy network, trained on synthetic data, learns a beneficial search strategy that yields nonmyopic decisions carefully balancing exploration and exploitation. Extensive experiments demonstrate our policy achieves competitive performance at real-world tasks that closely approximates the expert's at a fraction of the cost, while outperforming cheaper baselines.

Effective large-scale process optimization in manufacturing industries requires close cooperation between different human expert parties who encode their knowledge of related domains as Bayesian network models. For instance, Bayesian networks for domains such as lithography equipment, processes, and auxiliary tools must be conjointly used to effectively identify process optimizations in the semiconductor industry. However, business confidentiality across domains hinders such collaboration, and encourages alternatives to centralized inference. We propose CCBNet, the first Confidentiality-preserving Collaborative Bayesian Network inference framework. CCBNet leverages secret sharing to securely perform analysis on the combined knowledge of party models by joining two novel subprotocols: (i) CABN, which augments probability distributions for features across parties by modeling them into secret shares of their normalized combination; and (ii) SAVE, which aggregates party inference result shares through distributed variable elimination. We extensively evaluate CCBNet via 9 public Bayesian networks. Our results show that CCBNet achieves predictive quality that is similar to the ones of centralized methods while preserving model confidentiality. We further demonstrate that CCBNet scales to challenging manufacturing use cases that involve 16-128 parties in large networks of 223-1003 features, and decreases, on average, computational overhead by 23%, while communicating 71k values per request. Finally, we showcase possible attacks and mitigations for partially reconstructing party networks in the two subprotocols.

Probabilistic approaches for handling count-valued time sequences have attracted amounts of research attentions because their ability to infer explainable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for dealing with \emph{noisy} and \emph{incomplete} count data. Among these models, Poisson-Gamma Dynamical Systems (PGDSs) are proven to be effective in capturing the evolving dynamics underlying observed count sequences. However, the state-of-the-art PGDS still fails to capture the \emph{time-varying} transition dynamics that are commonly observed in real-world count time sequences. To mitigate this gap, a non-stationary PGDS is proposed to allow the underlying transition matrices to evolve over time, and the evolving transition matrices are modeled by sophisticatedly-designed Dirichlet Markov chains. Leveraging Dirichlet-Multinomial-Beta data augmentation techniques, a fully-conjugate and efficient Gibbs sampler is developed to perform posterior simulation. Experiments show that, in comparison with related models, the proposed non-stationary PGDS achieves improved predictive performance due to its capacity to learn non-stationary dependency structure captured by the time-evolving transition matrices.

Recent endeavors towards directly using large language models (LLMs) as agent models to execute interactive planning tasks have shown commendable results. Despite their achievements, however, they still struggle with brainless trial-and-error in global planning and generating hallucinatory actions in local planning due to their poor understanding of the ''real'' physical world. Imitating humans' mental world knowledge model which provides global prior knowledge before the task and maintains local dynamic knowledge during the task, in this paper, we introduce parametric World Knowledge Model (WKM) to facilitate agent planning. Concretely, we steer the agent model to self-synthesize knowledge from both expert and sampled trajectories. Then we develop WKM, providing prior task knowledge to guide the global planning and dynamic state knowledge to assist the local planning. Experimental results on three complex real-world simulated datasets with three state-of-the-art open-source LLMs, Mistral-7B, Gemma-7B, and Llama-3-8B, demonstrate that our method can achieve superior performance compared to various strong baselines. Besides, we analyze to illustrate that our WKM can effectively alleviate the blind trial-and-error and hallucinatory action issues, providing strong support for the agent's understanding of the world. Other interesting findings include: 1) our instance-level task knowledge can generalize better to unseen tasks, 2) weak WKM can guide strong agent model planning, and 3) unified WKM training has promising potential for further development. Code will be available at https://github.com/zjunlp/WKM.

Despite improved performance, existing methods (including the state-of-the-art, Min-K%) are mostly developed upon simple heuristics and lack solid, reasonable foundations. In this work, we propose a novel and theoretically motivated methodology for pre-training data detection, named Min-K%++. Specifically, we present a key insight that training samples tend to be local maxima of the modeled distribution along each input dimension through maximum likelihood training, which in turn allow us to insightfully translate the problem into identification of local maxima. Then, we design our method accordingly that works under the discrete distribution modeled by LLMs, whose core idea is to determine whether the input forms a mode or has relatively high probability under the conditional categorical distribution. Empirically, the proposed method achieves new SOTA performance across multiple settings. On the WikiMIA benchmark, Min-K%++ outperforms the runner-up by 6.2% to 10.5% in detection AUROC averaged over five models. On the more challenging MIMIR benchmark, it consistently improves upon reference-free methods while performing on par with reference-based method that requires an extra reference model.

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.

Constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) traditionally produces stochastic, expectationconstrained policies that can behave undesirably - imagine a self-driving car that randomly changes lanes or runs out of fuel. However, artificial decision-making systems must be predictable, trustworthy, and robust. One approach to ensuring these qualities is to focus on deterministic policies, which are inherently predictable and trustworthy. Moreover, they are easy to implement [10], reliable for autonomous vehicles [16, 12], and effective for multi-agent coordination [23]. Similarly, almost sure and anytime constraints [21] provide inherent trustworthiness and robustness, essential for applications in medicine [6, 22, 18], disaster relief [9, 29, 27], and resource management [20, 19, 24, 4]. Despite the advantages of deterministic policies and stricter constraints, their computation remains an open challenge in CRL. Our research aims to address this challenge by studying the computational complexity of computing deterministic policies for a wide range of constraint types. Consider a constrained Markov Decision Process (cMDP) denoted by M. Let C represent an arbitrary cost criterion and B be the available budget.

Modeling driver behavior provides several advantages in the automotive industry, including prediction of electric vehicle energy consumption. Studies have shown that aggressive driving can consume up to 30% more energy than moderate driving, in certain driving scenarios. Machine learning methods are widely used for driver behavior classification, which, however, may yield some challenges such as sequence modeling on long time windows and lack of labeled data due to expensive annotation. To address the first challenge, passive learning of driver behavior, we investigate non-recurrent architectures such as self-attention models and convolutional neural networks with joint recurrence plots (JRP), and compare them with recurrent models. We find that self-attention models yield good performance, while JRP does not exhibit any significant improvement. However, with the window lengths of 5 and 10 seconds used in our study, none of the non-recurrent models outperform the recurrent models. To address the second challenge, we investigate several active learning methods with different informativeness measures. We evaluate uncertainty sampling, as well as more advanced methods, such as query by committee and active deep dropout. Our experiments demonstrate that some active sampling techniques can outperform random sampling, and therefore decrease the effort needed for annotation.

Learning the unique directed acyclic graph corresponding to an unknown causal model is a challenging task. Methods based on functional causal models can identify a unique graph, but either suffer from the curse of dimensionality or impose strong parametric assumptions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel hybrid approach for global causal discovery in observational data that leverages local causal substructures. We first present a topological sorting algorithm that leverages ancestral relationships in linear structural equation models to establish a compact top-down hierarchical ordering, encoding more causal information than linear orderings produced by existing methods. We demonstrate that this approach generalizes to nonlinear settings with arbitrary noise. We then introduce a nonparametric constraint-based algorithm that prunes spurious edges by searching for local conditioning sets, achieving greater accuracy than current methods. We provide theoretical guarantees for correctness and worst-case polynomial time complexities, with empirical validation on synthetic data.