Thanks to its solid theoretical foundation, the SHAP framework is arguably one the most widely utilized frameworks for local explainability of ML models. Despite its popularity, its exact computation is known to be very challenging, proven to be NP-Hard in various configurations. Recent works have unveiled positive complexity results regarding the computation of the SHAP score for specific model families, encompassing decision trees, random forests, and some classes of boolean circuits. Yet, all these positive results hinge on the assumption of feature independence, often simplistic in real-world scenarios. In this article, we investigate the computational complexity of the SHAP score by relaxing this assumption and introducing a Markovian perspective. We show that, under the Markovian assumption, computing the SHAP score for the class of Weighted automata, Disjoint DNFs and Decision Trees can be performed in polynomial time, offering a first positive complexity result for the problem of SHAP score computation that transcends the limitations of the feature independence assumption.

In noisy and low-data regimes prevalent in real-world applications, a key challenge of machine learning lies in effectively incorporating inductive biases that promote data efficiency and robustness. Meta-learning and informed ML stand out as two approaches for incorporating prior knowledge into ML pipelines. While the former relies on a purely data-driven source of priors, the latter is guided by prior domain knowledge. In this paper, we formalise a hybrid paradigm, informed meta-learning, facilitating the incorporation of priors from unstructured knowledge representations, such as natural language; thus, unlocking complementarity in cross-task knowledge sharing of humans and machines. We establish the foundational components of informed meta-learning and present a concrete instantiation of this framework--the Informed Neural Process. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate the potential benefits of informed meta-learning in improving data efficiency, robustness to observational noise and task distribution shifts.

Learning the structure of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is useful in many areas of machine learning and artificial intelligence, with wide applications. However, in the high-dimensional setting, it is challenging to obtain good empirical and theoretical results without strong and often restrictive assumptions. Additionally, it is questionable whether all of the variables purported to be included in the network are observable. It is of interest then to restrict consideration to a subset of the variables for relevant and reliable inferences. In fact, researchers in various disciplines can usually select a set of target nodes in the network for causal discovery. This paper develops a new constraint-based method for estimating the local structure around multiple user-specified target nodes, enabling coordination in structure learning between neighborhoods. Our method facilitates causal discovery without learning the entire DAG structure. We establish consistency results for our algorithm with respect to the local neighborhood structure of the target nodes in the true graph. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data show that our algorithm is more accurate in learning the neighborhood structures with much less computational cost than standard methods that estimate the entire DAG. An R package implementing our methods may be accessed at https://github.com/stephenvsmith/CML.

Change point detection (CPD) and anomaly detection (AD) are essential techniques in various fields to identify abrupt changes or abnormal data instances. However, existing methods are often constrained to univariate data, face scalability challenges with large datasets due to computational demands, and experience reduced performance with high-dimensional or intricate data, as well as hidden anomalies. Furthermore, they often lack interpretability and adaptability to domain-specific knowledge, which limits their versatility across different fields. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based CPD/AD method called Probabilistic Predictive Coding (PPC) that jointly learns to encode sequential data to low dimensional latent space representations and to predict the subsequent data representations as well as the corresponding prediction uncertainties. The model parameters are optimized with maximum likelihood estimation by comparing these predictions with the true encodings. At the time of application, the true and predicted encodings are used to determine the probability of conformity, an interpretable and meaningful anomaly score. Furthermore, our approach has linear time complexity, scalability issues are prevented, and the method can easily be adjusted to a wide range of data types and intricate applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness and adaptability of our proposed method across synthetic time series experiments, image data, and real-world magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging data.

The Bethe free energy approximation provides an effective way for relaxing NP-hard problems of probabilistic inference. However, its accuracy depends on the model parameters and particularly degrades if a phase transition in the model occurs. In this work, we analyze when the Bethe approximation is reliable and how this can be verified. We argue and show by experiment that it is mostly accurate if it is convex on a submanifold of its domain, the 'Bethe box'. For verifying its convexity, we derive two sufficient conditions that are based on the definiteness properties of the Bethe Hessian matrix: the first uses the concept of diagonal dominance, and the second decomposes the Bethe Hessian matrix into a sum of sparse matrices and characterizes the definiteness properties of the individual matrices in that sum. These theoretical results provide a simple way to estimate the critical phase transition temperature of a model. As a practical contribution we propose $\texttt{BETHE-MIN}$, a projected quasi-Newton method to efficiently find a minimum of the Bethe free energy.

Graph encoder embedding, a recent technique for graph data, offers speed and scalability in producing vertex-level representations from binary graphs. In this paper, we extend the applicability of this method to a general graph model, which includes weighted graphs, distance matrices, and kernel matrices. We prove that the encoder embedding satisfies the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem on a per-observation basis. Under certain condition, it achieves asymptotic normality on a per-class basis, enabling optimal classification through discriminant analysis. These theoretical findings are validated through a series of experiments involving weighted graphs, as well as text and image data transformed into general graph representations using appropriate distance metrics.

In recent years, the inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has garnered increasing attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions often offer a direct and effective solution to this issue. However, understanding the underlying causes and evaluating the effectiveness of generalized posteriors remain active areas of research. In this study, we introduce a unified theoretical framework to attribute Bayesian inconsistency to model misspecification and inadequate priors. We interpret the generalization of the posterior with a temperature factor as a correction for misspecified models through adjustments to the joint probability model, and the recalibration of priors by redistributing probability mass on models within the hypothesis space using data samples. Additionally, we highlight a distinctive feature of Laplace approximation, which ensures that the generalized normalizing constant can be treated as invariant, unlike the typical scenario in general Bayesian learning where this constant varies with model parameters post-generalization. Building on this insight, we propose the generalized Laplace approximation, which involves a simple adjustment to the computation of the Hessian matrix of the regularized loss function. This method offers a flexible and scalable framework for obtaining high-quality posterior distributions. We assess the performance and properties of the generalized Laplace approximation on state-of-the-art neural networks and real-world datasets.

PAC-Bayesian analysis is a frequentist framework for incorporating prior knowledge into learning. It was inspired by Bayesian learning, which allows sequential data processing and naturally turns posteriors from one processing step into priors for the next. However, despite two and a half decades of research, the ability to update priors sequentially without losing confidence information along the way remained elusive for PAC-Bayes. While PAC-Bayes allows construction of data-informed priors, the final confidence intervals depend only on the number of points that were not used for the construction of the prior, whereas confidence information in the prior, which is related to the number of points used to construct the prior, is lost. This limits the possibility and benefit of sequential prior updates, because the final bounds depend only on the size of the final batch. We present a novel and, in retrospect, surprisingly simple and powerful PAC-Bayesian procedure that allows sequential prior updates with no information loss. The procedure is based on a novel decomposition of the expected loss of randomized classifiers. The decomposition rewrites the loss of the posterior as an excess loss relative to a downscaled loss of the prior plus the downscaled loss of the prior, which is bounded recursively. As a side result, we also present a generalization of the split-kl and PAC-Bayes-split-kl inequalities to discrete random variables, which we use for bounding the excess losses, and which can be of independent interest. In empirical evaluation the new procedure significantly outperforms state-of-the-art.

We need to look at our shoelaces as we first learn to tie them but having mastered this skill, we can do it from touch alone. We call this phenomenon "sensory scaffolding": observation streams that are not needed by a master might yet aid a novice learner. We consider such sensory scaffolding setups for training artificial agents. For example, a robot arm may need to be deployed with just a low-cost, robust, general-purpose camera; yet its performance may improve by having privileged training-time-only access to informative albeit expensive and unwieldy motion capture rigs or fragile tactile sensors. For these settings, we propose Scaffolder, a reinforcement learning approach which effectively exploits privileged sensing in critics, world models, reward estimators, and other such auxiliary components that are only used at training time, to improve the target policy. For evaluating sensory scaffolding agents, we design a new "S3" suite of ten diverse simulated robotic tasks that explore a wide range of practical sensor setups. Agents must use privileged camera sensing to train blind hurdlers, privileged active visual perception to help robot arms overcome visual occlusions, privileged touch sensors to train robot hands, and more. Scaffolder easily outperforms relevant prior baselines and frequently performs comparably even to policies that have test-time access to the privileged sensors. It is well-known that Beethoven composed symphonies long after he had fully lost his hearing. Such feats are commonly held to be evidence of mastery: for example, novice typists need to look at the keyboard to locate keys but with practice, can graduate to typing without looking. Thus, sensing requirements may be different during learning versus after learning. We refer to this as "sensory scaffolding", drawing inspiration from the concept of scaffolding teaching mechanisms in psychology that provide temporary support for a student (Wood et al., 1976; Vygotsky et al., 2011), like training wheels when learning to ride a bicycle. For artificial learning agents such as robots, sensory scaffolding permits decoupling the observation streams required at test time from those that are used to train the agent. The sensors available in a deployed robot are often decided by practical considerations such as cost, robustness, size, compute requirements, and ease of instrumentation, e.g., autonomous cars with only cheap and robust RGB camera sensors. However, those considerations might carry less weight at training time, so a robot learning practitioner may choose to scaffold policy learning with privileged information (Vapnik & Vashist, 2009) from extra sensors available only at training. In the case of the cars above, the manufacturer might equip a small fleet of training cars with expensive privileged sensors like lidar to improve RGB-only driving policies for customers to install in their cars.

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a rapidly expanding field of research. Though the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to learn a single (point estimate) DAG from data, let alone provide uncertainty quantification. Our article addresses the difficult task of quantifying graph uncertainty by developing a variational Bayes inference framework based on novel distributions that have support directly on the space of DAGs. The distributions, which we use to form our prior and variational posterior, are induced by a projection operation, whereby an arbitrary continuous distribution is projected onto the space of sparse weighted acyclic adjacency matrices (matrix representations of DAGs) with probability mass on exact zeros. Though the projection constitutes a combinatorial optimization problem, it is solvable at scale via recently developed techniques that reformulate acyclicity as a continuous constraint. We empirically demonstrate that our method, ProDAG, can deliver accurate inference, and often outperforms existing state-of-the-art alternatives.