Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behavior, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modeling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two time scales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar).

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), agents collaborate to achieve common goals, such as defeating enemies and scoring a goal. However, learning goal-reaching paths toward such a semantic goal takes a considerable amount of time in complex tasks and the trained model often fails to find such paths. To address this, we present LAtent Goal-guided Multi-Agent reinforcement learning (LAGMA), which generates a goal-reaching trajectory in latent space and provides a latent goal-guided incentive to transitions toward this reference trajectory. LAGMA consists of three major components: (a) quantized latent space constructed via a modified VQ-VAE for efficient sample utilization, (b) goal-reaching trajectory generation via extended VQ codebook, and (c) latent goal-guided intrinsic reward generation to encourage transitions towards the sampled goal-reaching path. The proposed method is evaluated by StarCraft II with both dense and sparse reward settings and Google Research Football. Empirical results show further performance improvement over state-of-the-art baselines.

Federated Semi-Supervised Learning (FSSL) leverages both labeled and unlabeled data on clients to collaboratively train a model.In FSSL, the heterogeneous data can introduce prediction bias into the model, causing the model's prediction to skew towards some certain classes. Existing FSSL methods primarily tackle this issue by enhancing consistency in model parameters or outputs. However, as the models themselves are biased, merely constraining their consistency is not sufficient to alleviate prediction bias. In this paper, we explore this bias from a Bayesian perspective and demonstrate that it principally originates from label prior bias within the training data. Building upon this insight, we propose a debiasing method for FSSL named FedDB. FedDB utilizes the Average Prediction Probability of Unlabeled Data (APP-U) to approximate the biased prior.During local training, FedDB employs APP-U to refine pseudo-labeling through Bayes' theorem, thereby significantly reducing the label prior bias. Concurrently, during the model aggregation, FedDB uses APP-U from participating clients to formulate unbiased aggregate weights, thereby effectively diminishing bias in the global model. Experimental results show that FedDB can surpass existing FSSL methods. The code is available at https://github.com/GuogangZhu/FedDB.

Convergence rate analysis for general state-space Markov chains is fundamentally important in areas such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and algorithmic analysis (for computing explicit convergence bounds). This problem, however, is notoriously difficult because traditional analytical methods often do not generate practically useful convergence bounds for realistic Markov chains. We propose the Deep Contractive Drift Calculator (DCDC), the first general-purpose sample-based algorithm for bounding the convergence of Markov chains to stationarity in Wasserstein distance. The DCDC has two components. First, inspired by the new convergence analysis framework in (Qu et al., 2023), we introduce the Contractive Drift Equation (CDE), the solution of which leads to an explicit convergence bound. Second, we develop an efficient neural-network-based CDE solver. Equipped with these two components, DCDC solves the CDE and converts the solution into a convergence bound. We analyze the sample complexity of the algorithm and further demonstrate the effectiveness of the DCDC by generating convergence bounds for realistic Markov chains arising from stochastic processing networks as well as constant step-size stochastic optimization.

This paper introduced a clustered estimator of the Network Information Criterion (NICc) to approximate leave-one-cluster-out cross-validated deviance, which can be used as an alternative to cluster-based cross-validation when modeling clustered data. Stone proved that Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is an asymptotic equivalence to leave-one-observation-out cross-validation if the parametric model is true. Ripley pointed out that the Network Information Criterion (NIC) derived in Stone's proof, is a better approximation to leave-one-observation-out cross-validation when the model is not true. For clustered data, we derived a clustered estimator of NIC, referred to as NICc, by substituting the Fisher information matrix in NIC with its estimator that adjusts for clustering. This adjustment imposes a larger penalty in NICc than the unclustered estimator of NIC when modeling clustered data, thereby preventing overfitting more effectively. In a simulation study and an empirical example, we used linear and logistic regression to model clustered data with Gaussian or binomial response, respectively. We showed that NICc is a better approximation to leave-one-cluster-out deviance and prevents overfitting more effectively than AIC and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). NICc leads to more accurate model selection, as determined by cluster-based cross-validation, compared to AIC and BIC.

We explore online learning in episodic loop-free Markov decision processes on non-stationary environments (changing losses and probability transitions). Our focus is on the Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning problem (CURL), an extension of classical RL for handling convex performance criteria in state-action distributions induced by agent policies. While various machine learning problems can be written as CURL, its non-linearity invalidates traditional Bellman equations. Despite recent solutions to classical CURL, none address non-stationary MDPs. This paper introduces MetaCURL, the first CURL algorithm for non-stationary MDPs. It employs a meta-algorithm running multiple black-box algorithms instances over different intervals, aggregating outputs via a sleeping expert framework. The key hurdle is partial information due to MDP uncertainty. Under partial information on the probability transitions (uncertainty and non-stationarity coming only from external noise, independent of agent state-action pairs), we achieve optimal dynamic regret without prior knowledge of MDP changes. Unlike approaches for RL, MetaCURL handles full adversarial losses, not just stochastic ones. We believe our approach for managing non-stationarity with experts can be of interest to the RL community.

We study reinforcement learning with multinomial logistic (MNL) function approximation where the underlying transition probability kernel of the Markov decision processes (MDPs) is parametrized by an unknown transition core with features of state and action. For the finite horizon episodic setting with inhomogeneous state transitions, we propose provably efficient algorithms with randomized exploration having frequentist regret guarantees. For our first algorithm, $\texttt{RRL-MNL}$, we adapt optimistic sampling to ensure the optimism of the estimated value function with sufficient frequency and establish that $\texttt{RRL-MNL}$ is both statistically and computationally efficient, achieving a $\tilde{O}(\kappa^{-1} d^{\frac{3}{2}} H^{\frac{3}{2}} \sqrt{T})$ frequentist regret bound with constant-time computational cost per episode. Here, $d$ is the dimension of the transition core, $H$ is the horizon length, $T$ is the total number of steps, and $\kappa$ is a problem-dependent constant. Despite the simplicity and practicality of $\texttt{RRL-MNL}$, its regret bound scales with $\kappa^{-1}$, which is potentially large in the worst case. To improve the dependence on $\kappa^{-1}$, we propose $\texttt{ORRL-MNL}$, which estimates the value function using local gradient information of the MNL transition model. We show that its frequentist regret bound is $\tilde{O}(d^{\frac{3}{2}} H^{\frac{3}{2}} \sqrt{T} + \kappa^{-1} d^2 H^2)$. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first randomized RL algorithms for the MNL transition model that achieve both computational and statistical efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed algorithms.

Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of such estimators can be extremely low. An analysis for exact inference reveals SNR decays exponentially as there is an increase in (a) the mismatch between training and test data, (b) the dimensionality of the latent space, or (c) the size of the test data relative to the training data. Further analysis extends these results to approximate inference. To remedy the low SNR problem, we propose replacing simple MC sampling with importance sampling using a proposal distribution optimized at test time on a variational proxy for the SNR and demonstrate that this yields greatly improved estimates.

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes. The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate, and empirically outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs.

Despite their benefits in terms of simplicity, low computational cost and data requirement, parametric machine learning algorithms, such as linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis or logistic regression, suffer from serious drawbacks including linearity, poor fit of features to the usually imposed normal distribution and high dimensionality. Batch kernel-based nonparametric classifier, which overcomes the linearity and normality of features constraints, represent an interesting alternative for supervised classification problem. However, it suffers from the ``curse of dimension". The problem can be alleviated by the explosive sample size in the era of big data, while large-scale data size presents some challenges in the storage of data and the calculation of the classifier. These challenges make the classical batch nonparametric classifier no longer applicable. This motivates us to develop a fast algorithm adapted to the real-time calculation of the nonparametric classifier in massive as well as streaming data frameworks. This online classifier includes two steps. First, we consider an online principle components analysis to reduce the dimension of the features with a very low computation cost. Then, a stochastic approximation algorithm is deployed to obtain a real-time calculation of the nonparametric classifier. The proposed methods are evaluated and compared to some commonly used machine learning algorithms for real-time fetal well-being monitoring. The study revealed that, in terms of accuracy, the offline (or Batch), as well as, the online classifiers are good competitors to the random forest algorithm. Moreover, we show that the online classifier gives the best trade-off accuracy/computation cost compared to the offline classifier.