Estimating the uncertainty of a model's prediction on a test point is a crucial part of ensuring reliability and calibration under distribution shifts. A minimum description length approach to this problem uses the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) distribution, which considers every possible label for a data point, and decreases confidence in a prediction if other labels are also consistent with the model and training data. In this work we propose IF-COMP, a scalable and efficient approximation of the pNML distribution that linearizes the model with a temperature-scaled Boltzmann influence function. IF-COMP can be used to produce well-calibrated predictions on test points as well as measure complexity in both labelled and unlabelled settings. We experimentally validate IF-COMP on uncertainty calibration, mislabel detection, and OOD detection tasks, where it consistently matches or beats strong baseline methods.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful models for sequential decision making under transition and observation uncertainties. This paper studies the challenging yet important problem in POMDPs known as the (indefinite-horizon) Maximal Reachability Probability Problem (MRPP), where the goal is to maximize the probability of reaching some target states. This is also a core problem in model checking with logical specifications and is naturally undiscounted (discount factor is one). Inspired by the success of point-based methods developed for discounted problems, we study their extensions to MRPP. Specifically, we focus on trial-based heuristic search value iteration techniques and present a novel algorithm that leverages the strengths of these techniques for efficient exploration of the belief space (informed search via value bounds) while addressing their drawbacks in handling loops for indefinite-horizon problems. The algorithm produces policies with two-sided bounds on optimal reachability probabilities. We prove convergence to an optimal policy from below under certain conditions. Experimental evaluations on a suite of benchmarks show that our algorithm outperforms existing methods in almost all cases in both probability guarantees and computation time.

In the rapidly evolving landscape of eCommerce, Artificial Intelligence (AI) based pricing algorithms, particularly those utilizing Reinforcement Learning (RL), are becoming increasingly prevalent. This rise has led to an inextricable pricing situation with the potential for market collusion. Our research employs an experimental oligopoly model of repeated price competition, systematically varying the environment to cover scenarios from basic economic theory to subjective consumer demand preferences. We also introduce a novel demand framework that enables the implementation of various demand models, allowing for a weighted blending of different models. In contrast to existing research in this domain, we aim to investigate the strategies and emerging pricing patterns developed by the agents, which may lead to a collusive outcome. Furthermore, we investigate a scenario where agents cannot observe their competitors' prices. Finally, we provide a comprehensive legal analysis across all scenarios. Our findings indicate that RL-based AI agents converge to a collusive state characterized by the charging of supracompetitive prices, without necessarily requiring inter-agent communication. Implementing alternative RL algorithms, altering the number of agents or simulation settings, and restricting the scope of the agents' observation space does not significantly impact the collusive market outcome behavior.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a widely used tool for sequential data analysis, however, they are still often seen as black boxes of computation. Understanding the functional principles of these networks is critical to developing ideal model architectures and optimization strategies. Previous studies typically only emphasize the network representation post-training, overlooking their evolution process throughout training. Here, we present Multiway Multislice PHATE (MM-PHATE), a novel method for visualizing the evolution of RNNs' hidden states. MM-PHATE is a graph-based embedding using structured kernels across the multiple dimensions spanned by RNNs: time, training epoch, and units. We demonstrate on various datasets that MM-PHATE uniquely preserves hidden representation community structure among units and identifies information processing and compression phases during training. The embedding allows users to look under the hood of RNNs across training and provides an intuitive and comprehensive strategy to understanding the network's internal dynamics and draw conclusions, e.g., on why and how one model outperforms another or how a specific architecture might impact an RNN's learning ability.

A key challenge in e-learning environments like Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) is to induce effective pedagogical policies efficiently. While Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) often suffers from sample inefficiency and reward function design difficulty, Apprenticeship Learning(AL) algorithms can overcome them. However, most AL algorithms can not handle heterogeneity as they assume all demonstrations are generated with a homogeneous policy driven by a single reward function. Still, some AL algorithms which consider heterogeneity, often can not generalize to large continuous state space and only work with discrete states. In this paper, we propose an expectation-maximization(EM)-EDM, a general AL framework to induce effective pedagogical policies from given optimal or near-optimal demonstrations, which are assumed to be driven by heterogeneous reward functions. We compare the effectiveness of the policies induced by our proposed EM-EDM against four AL-based baselines and two policies induced by DRL on two different but related tasks that involve pedagogical action prediction. Our overall results showed that, for both tasks, EM-EDM outperforms the four AL baselines across all performance metrics and the two DRL baselines. This suggests that EM-EDM can effectively model complex student pedagogical decision-making processes through the ability to manage a large, continuous state space and adapt to handle diverse and heterogeneous reward functions with very few given demonstrations.

Reinforcement learning (RL) excels in optimizing policies for discrete-time Markov decision processes (MDP). However, various systems are inherently continuous in time, making discrete-time MDPs an inexact modeling choice. In many applications, such as greenhouse control or medical treatments, each interaction (measurement or switching of action) involves manual intervention and thus is inherently costly. Therefore, we generally prefer a time-adaptive approach with fewer interactions with the system. In this work, we formalize an RL framework, Time-adaptive Control & Sensing (TaCoS), that tackles this challenge by optimizing over policies that besides control predict the duration of its application. Our formulation results in an extended MDP that any standard RL algorithm can solve. We demonstrate that state-of-the-art RL algorithms trained on TaCoS drastically reduce the interaction amount over their discrete-time counterpart while retaining the same or improved performance, and exhibiting robustness over discretization frequency. Finally, we propose OTaCoS, an efficient model-based algorithm for our setting. We show that OTaCoS enjoys sublinear regret for systems with sufficiently smooth dynamics and empirically results in further sample-efficiency gains.

In the modern era, mobile phones have become ubiquitous, and Short Message Service (SMS) has grown to become a multi-million-dollar service due to the widespread adoption of mobile devices and the millions of people who use SMS daily. However, SMS spam has also become a pervasive problem that endangers users' privacy and security through phishing and fraud. Despite numerous spam filtering techniques, there is still a need for a more effective solution to address this problem [1]. This research addresses the pervasive issue of SMS spam, which poses threats to users' privacy and security. Despite existing spam filtering techniques, the high false-positive rate persists as a challenge. The study introduces a novel approach utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning models, particularly BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers), for SMS spam detection and classification. Data preprocessing techniques, such as stop word removal and tokenization, are applied, along with feature extraction using BERT. Machine learning models, including SVM, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest, are integrated with BERT for differentiating spam from ham messages. Evaluation results revealed that the Na\"ive Bayes classifier + BERT model achieves the highest accuracy at 97.31% with the fastest execution time of 0.3 seconds on the test dataset. This approach demonstrates a notable enhancement in spam detection efficiency and a low false-positive rate. The developed model presents a valuable solution to combat SMS spam, ensuring faster and more accurate detection. This model not only safeguards users' privacy but also assists network providers in effectively identifying and blocking SMS spam messages.

Modern Hopfield networks have enjoyed recent interest due to their connection to attention in transformers. Our paper provides a unified framework for sparse Hopfield networks by establishing a link with Fenchel-Young losses. The result is a new family of Hopfield-Fenchel-Young energies whose update rules are end-to-end differentiable sparse transformations. We reveal a connection between loss margins, sparsity, and exact memory retrieval. We further extend this framework to structured Hopfield networks via the SparseMAP transformation, which can retrieve pattern associations instead of a single pattern. Experiments on multiple instance learning and text rationalization demonstrate the usefulness of our approach.

We provide a theoretical and computational investigation of the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision, which was recently proposed as a robust criterion for pseudo-label selection (PLS) in semi-supervised learning. Opposed to traditional methods for PLS we use credal sets of priors ("generalized Bayes") to represent the epistemic modeling uncertainty. These latter are then updated by the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision. We eventually select pseudo-labeled data that are most likely in light of the least favorable distribution from the so updated credal set. We formalize the task of finding optimal pseudo-labeled data w.r.t. the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision as an optimization problem. A concrete implementation for the class of logistic models then allows us to compare the predictive power of the method with competing approaches. It is observed that the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision can achieve very promising results, especially when the proportion of labeled data is low.