Precision matrices are crucial in many fields such as social networks, neuroscience, and economics, representing the edge structure of Gaussian graphical models (GGMs), where a zero in an off-diagonal position of the precision matrix indicates conditional independence between nodes. In high-dimensional settings where the dimension of the precision matrix $p$ exceeds the sample size $n$ and the matrix is sparse, methods like graphical Lasso, graphical SCAD, and CLIME are popular for estimating GGMs. While frequentist methods are well-studied, Bayesian approaches for (unstructured) sparse precision matrices are less explored. The graphical horseshoe estimate by \citet{li2019graphical}, applying the global-local horseshoe prior, shows superior empirical performance, but theoretical work for sparse precision matrix estimations using shrinkage priors is limited. This paper addresses these gaps by providing concentration results for the tempered posterior with the fully specified horseshoe prior in high-dimensional settings. Moreover, we also provide novel theoretical results for model misspecification, offering a general oracle inequality for the posterior.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

Exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) remains an open challenge. RL algorithms rely on observing rewards to train the agent, and if informative rewards are sparse the agent learns slowly or may not learn at all. To improve exploration and reward discovery, popular algorithms rely on optimism. But what if sometimes rewards are unobservable, e.g., situations of partial monitoring in bandits and the recent formalism of monitored Markov decision process? In this case, optimism can lead to suboptimal behavior that does not explore further to collapse uncertainty. With this paper, we present a novel exploration strategy that overcomes the limitations of existing methods and guarantees convergence to an optimal policy even when rewards are not always observable. We further propose a collection of tabular environments for benchmarking exploration in RL (with and without unobservable rewards) and show that our method outperforms existing ones.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) tasks often utilize a centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) framework. QMIX is a successful CTDE method that learns a credit assignment function to derive local value functions from a global value function, defining a deterministic local policy. However, QMIX is hindered by its poor exploration strategy. While maximum entropy reinforcement learning (RL) promotes better exploration through stochastic policies, QMIX's process of credit assignment conflicts with the maximum entropy objective and the decentralized execution requirement, making it unsuitable for maximum entropy RL. In this paper, we propose an enhancement to QMIX by incorporating an additional local Q-value learning method within the maximum entropy RL framework. Our approach constrains the local Q-value estimates to maintain the correct ordering of all actions. Due to the monotonicity of the QMIX value function, these updates ensure that locally optimal actions align with globally optimal actions. We theoretically prove the monotonic improvement and convergence of our method to an optimal solution. Experimentally, we validate our algorithm in matrix games, Multi-Agent Particle Environment and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in SMAC-v2.

Traffic accidents pose a severe global public health issue, leading to 1.19 million fatalities annually, with the greatest impact on individuals aged 5 to 29 years old. This paper addresses the critical need for advanced predictive methods in road safety by conducting a comprehensive review of recent advancements in applying machine learning (ML) techniques to traffic accident analysis and prediction. It examines 191 studies from the last five years, focusing on predicting accident risk, frequency, severity, duration, as well as general statistical analysis of accident data. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide such a comprehensive review, covering the state-of-the-art across a wide range of domains related to accident analysis and prediction. The review highlights the effectiveness of integrating diverse data sources and advanced ML techniques to improve prediction accuracy and handle the complexities of traffic data. By mapping the current landscape and identifying gaps in the literature, this study aims to guide future research towards significantly reducing traffic-related deaths and injuries by 2030, aligning with the World Health Organization (WHO) targets.

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation of important variables (e.g., confounders, mediators, exogenous variables, etc.) severely compromises the reliability of CI methods. The issue may arise from the inherent difficulty in measuring the variables. Additionally, in observational studies where variables are passively recorded, certain covariates might be inadvertently omitted by the experimenter. Depending on the type of unobserved variables and the specific CI task, various consequences can be incurred if these latent variables are carelessly handled, such as biased estimation of causal effects, incomplete understanding of causal mechanisms, lack of individual-level causal consideration, etc. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of recent developments in CI with latent variables. We start by discussing traditional CI techniques when variables of interest are assumed to be fully observed. Afterward, under the taxonomy of circumvention and inference-based methods, we provide an in-depth discussion of various CI strategies to handle latent variables, covering the tasks of causal effect estimation, mediation analysis, counterfactual reasoning, and causal discovery. Furthermore, we generalize the discussion to graph data where interference among units may exist. Finally, we offer fresh aspects for further advancement of CI with latent variables, especially new opportunities in the era of large language models (LLMs).

Machine learning techniques applied to the problem of financial market forecasting struggle with dynamic regime switching, or underlying correlation and covariance shifts in true (hidden) market variables. Drawing inspiration from the success of reinforcement learning in robotics, particularly in agile locomotion adaptation of quadruped robots to unseen terrains, we introduce an innovative approach that leverages world knowledge of pretrained LLMs (aka. 'privileged information' in robotics) and dynamically adapts them using intrinsic, natural market rewards using LLM alignment technique we dub as "Reinforcement Learning from Market Feedback" (**RLMF**). Strong empirical results demonstrate the efficacy of our method in adapting to regime shifts in financial markets, a challenge that has long plagued predictive models in this domain. The proposed algorithmic framework outperforms best-performing SOTA LLM models on the existing (FLARE) benchmark stock-movement (SM) tasks by more than 15\% improved accuracy. On the recently proposed NIFTY SM task, our adaptive policy outperforms the SOTA best performing trillion parameter models like GPT-4. The paper details the dual-phase, teacher-student architecture and implementation of our model, the empirical results obtained, and an analysis of the role of language embeddings in terms of Information Gain.

We study model-based reinforcement learning with non-linear function approximation where the transition function of the underlying Markov decision process (MDP) is given by a multinomial logistic (MNL) model. In this paper, we develop two algorithms for the infinite-horizon average reward setting. Our first algorithm \texttt{UCRL2-MNL} applies to the class of communicating MDPs and achieves an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dD\sqrt{T})$ regret, where $d$ is the dimension of feature mapping, $D$ is the diameter of the underlying MDP, and $T$ is the horizon. The second algorithm \texttt{OVIFH-MNL} is computationally more efficient and applies to the more general class of weakly communicating MDPs, for which we show a regret guarantee of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{2/5} \mathrm{sp}(v^*)T^{4/5})$ where $\mathrm{sp}(v^*)$ is the span of the associated optimal bias function. We also prove a lower bound of $\Omega(d\sqrt{DT})$ for learning communicating MDPs with MNL transitions of diameter at most $D$. Furthermore, we show a regret lower bound of $\Omega(dH^{3/2}\sqrt{K})$ for learning $H$-horizon episodic MDPs with MNL function approximation where $K$ is the number of episodes, which improves upon the best-known lower bound for the finite-horizon setting.

In machine learning, concept drift is an evolution of information that invalidates the current data model. It happens when the statistical properties of the input data change over time in unforeseen ways. Concept drift detection is crucial when dealing with dynamically changing data. Its visualization can bring valuable insight into the data dynamics, especially for multidimensional data, and is related to visual knowledge discovery. We propose a novel visualization model based on parallel coordinates, denoted as parallel histograms through time. Our model represents histograms of feature distributions for successive time-shifted windows. The drift is shown as variations of these histograms, obtained by connecting the means of the distribution for successive time windows. We show how these diagrams can be used to explain the decision made by the machine learning model in choosing the drift point. By isolating the drift at the edges of successive time windows, there will be none (or reduced) drift within the adjacent windows. We illustrate this concept on both synthetic and real datasets. In our experiments, we use an incremental/decremental SVM with shifting window, introduced by us in previous work. With our proposed technique, in addition to detect the presence of concept drift, we can also depict it. This information can be further used to explain the change. mental results, opening the possibility for further investigations.

Mobile robots operating in crowded environments require the ability to navigate among humans and surrounding obstacles efficiently while adhering to safety standards and socially compliant mannerisms. This scale of the robot navigation problem may be classified as both a local path planning and trajectory optimization problem. This work presents an array of force sensors that act as a tactile layer to complement the use of a LiDAR for the purpose of inducing awareness of contact with any surrounding objects within immediate vicinity of a mobile robot undetected by LiDARs. By incorporating the tactile layer, the robot can take more risks in its movements and possibly go right up to an obstacle or wall, and gently squeeze past it. In addition, we built up a simulation platform via Pybullet which integrates Robot Operating System (ROS) and reinforcement learning (RL) together. A touch-aware neural network model was trained on it to create an RL-based local path planner for dynamic obstacle avoidance. Our proposed method was demonstrated successfully on an omni-directional mobile robot who was able to navigate in a crowded environment with high agility and versatility in movement, while not being overly sensitive to nearby obstacles-not-in-contact.