We consider the problem of analyzing multivariate time series collected on multiple subjects, with the goal of identifying groups of subjects exhibiting similar trends in their recorded measurements over time as well as time-varying groups of associated measurements. To this end, we propose a Bayesian model for temporal biclustering featuring nested partitions, where a time-invariant partition of subjects induces a time-varying partition of measurements. Our approach allows for data-driven determination of the number of subject and measurement clusters as well as estimation of the number and location of changepoints in measurement partitions. To efficiently perform model fitting and posterior estimation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we derive a blocked update of measurements' cluster-assignment sequences. We illustrate the performance of our model in two applications to functional magnetic resonance imaging data and to an electroencephalogram dataset. The results indicate that the proposed model can combine information from potentially many subjects to discover a set of interpretable, dynamic patterns. Experiments on simulated data compare the estimation performance of the proposed model against ground-truth values and other statistical methods, showing that it performs well at identifying ground-truth subject and measurement clusters even when no subject or time dependence is present.

Neural networks posses the crucial ability to generate meaningful representations of task-dependent features. Indeed, with appropriate scaling, supervised learning in neural networks can result in strong, task-dependent feature learning. However, the nature of the emergent representations, which we call the `coding scheme', is still unclear. To understand the emergent coding scheme, we investigate fully-connected, wide neural networks learning classification tasks using the Bayesian framework where learning shapes the posterior distribution of the network weights. Consistent with previous findings, our analysis of the feature learning regime (also known as `non-lazy', `rich', or `mean-field' regime) shows that the networks acquire strong, data-dependent features. Surprisingly, the nature of the internal representations depends crucially on the neuronal nonlinearity. In linear networks, an analog coding scheme of the task emerges. Despite the strong representations, the mean predictor is identical to the lazy case. In nonlinear networks, spontaneous symmetry breaking leads to either redundant or sparse coding schemes. Our findings highlight how network properties such as scaling of weights and neuronal nonlinearity can profoundly influence the emergent representations.

One of the hallmark achievements of the theory of graphical models and Bayesian model selection is the celebrated greedy equivalence search (GES) algorithm due to Chickering and Meek. GES is known to consistently estimate the structure of directed acyclic graph (DAG) models in various special cases including Gaussian and discrete models, which are in particular curved exponential families. A general theory that covers general nonparametric DAG models, however, is missing. Here, we establish the consistency of greedy equivalence search for general families of DAG models that satisfy smoothness conditions on the Markov factorization, and hence may not be curved exponential families, or even parametric. The proof leverages recent advances in nonparametric Bayes to construct a test for comparing misspecified DAG models that avoids arguments based on the Laplace approximation. Nonetheless, when the Laplace approximation is valid and a consistent scoring function exists, we recover the classical result. As a result, we obtain a general consistency theorem for GES applied to general DAG models.

A wide range of machine learning algorithms iteratively add data to the training sample. Examples include semi-supervised learning, active learning, multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization. We embed this kind of data addition into decision theory by framing data selection as a decision problem. This paves the way for finding Bayes-optimal selections of data. For the illustrative case of self-training in semi-supervised learning, we derive the respective Bayes criterion. We further show that deploying this criterion mitigates the issue of confirmation bias by empirically assessing our method for generalized linear models, semi-parametric generalized additive models, and Bayesian neural networks on simulated and real-world data.

In the world of stochastic control, especially in economics and engineering, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) can effectively model various stochastic decision processes, from asset management to transportation optimization. These underlying MDPs, upon closer examination, often reveal a specifically constrained causal structure concerning the transition and reward dynamics. By exploiting this structure, we can obtain a reduction in the causal representation of the problem setting, allowing us to solve of the optimal value function more efficiently. This work defines an MDP framework, the \texttt{SD-MDP}, where we disentangle the causal structure of MDPs' transition and reward dynamics, providing distinct partitions on the temporal causal graph. With this stochastic reduction, the \texttt{SD-MDP} reflects a general class of resource allocation problems. This disentanglement further enables us to derive theoretical guarantees on the estimation error of the value function under an optimal policy by allowing independent value estimation from Monte Carlo sampling. Subsequently, by integrating this estimator into well-known Monte Carlo planning algorithms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), we derive bounds on the simple regret of the algorithm. Finally, we quantify the policy improvement of MCTS under the \texttt{SD-MDP} framework by demonstrating that the MCTS planning algorithm achieves higher expected reward (lower costs) under a constant simulation budget, on a tangible economic example based on maritime refuelling.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown inspiring achievements in constructing autonomous agents that rely on language descriptions as inputs. However, it remains unclear how well LLMs can function as few-shot or zero-shot embodied agents in dynamic interactive environments. To address this gap, we introduce LangSuitE, a versatile and simulation-free testbed featuring 6 representative embodied tasks in textual embodied worlds. Compared with previous LLM-based testbeds, LangSuitE (i) offers adaptability to diverse environments without multiple simulation engines, (ii) evaluates agents' capacity to develop ``internalized world knowledge'' with embodied observations, and (iii) allows easy customization of communication and action strategies. To address the embodiment challenge, we devise a novel chain-of-thought (CoT) schema, EmMem, which summarizes embodied states w.r.t. history information. Comprehensive benchmark results illustrate challenges and insights of embodied planning. LangSuitE represents a significant step toward building embodied generalists in the context of language models.

We present a bound for value-prediction error with respect to model misspecification that is tight, including constant factors. This is a direct improvement of the "simulation lemma," a foundational result in reinforcement learning. We demonstrate that existing bounds are quite loose, becoming vacuous for large discount factors, due to the suboptimal treatment of compounding probability errors. By carefully considering this quantity on its own, instead of as a subcomponent of value error, we derive a bound that is sub-linear with respect to transition function misspecification. We then demonstrate broader applicability of this technique, improving a similar bound in the related subfield of hierarchical abstraction.

Diffusion-based models have achieved notable empirical successes in reinforcement learning (RL) due to their expressiveness in modeling complex distributions. Despite existing methods being promising, the key challenge of extending existing methods for broader real-world applications lies in the computational cost at inference time, i.e., sampling from a diffusion model is considerably slow as it often requires tens to hundreds of iterations to generate even one sample. To circumvent this issue, we propose to leverage the flexibility of diffusion models for RL from a representation learning perspective. In particular, by exploiting the connection between diffusion model and energy-based model, we develop Diffusion Spectral Representation (Diff-SR), a coherent algorithm framework that enables extracting sufficient representations for value functions in Markov decision processes (MDP) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). We further demonstrate how Diff-SR facilitates efficient policy optimization and practical algorithms while explicitly bypassing the difficulty and inference cost of sampling from the diffusion model. Finally, we provide comprehensive empirical studies to verify the benefits of Diff-SR in delivering robust and advantageous performance across various benchmarks with both fully and partially observable settings.

We consider a variant of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a random learning rate and reveal its convergence properties. SGD is a widely used stochastic optimization algorithm in machine learning, especially deep learning. Numerous studies reveal the convergence properties of SGD and its simplified variants. Among these, the analysis of convergence using a stationary distribution of updated parameters provides generalizable results. However, to obtain a stationary distribution, the update direction of the parameters must not degenerate, which limits the applicable variants of SGD. In this study, we consider a novel SGD variant, Poisson SGD, which has degenerated parameter update directions and instead utilizes a random learning rate. Consequently, we demonstrate that a distribution of a parameter updated by Poisson SGD converges to a stationary distribution under weak assumptions on a loss function. Based on this, we further show that Poisson SGD finds global minima in non-convex optimization problems and also evaluate the generalization error using this method. As a proof technique, we approximate the distribution by Poisson SGD with that of the bouncy particle sampler (BPS) and derive its stationary distribution, using the theoretical advance of the piece-wise deterministic Markov process (PDMP).

Effective clustering of biomedical data is crucial in precision medicine, enabling accurate stratifiction of patients or samples. However, the growth in availability of high-dimensional categorical data, including `omics data, necessitates computationally efficient clustering algorithms. We present VICatMix, a variational Bayesian finite mixture model designed for the clustering of categorical data. The use of variational inference (VI) in its training allows the model to outperform competitors in term of efficiency, while maintaining high accuracy. VICatMix furthermore performs variable selection, enhancing its performance on high-dimensional, noisy data. The proposed model incorporates summarisation and model averaging to mitigate poor local optima in VI, allowing for improved estimation of the true number of clusters simultaneously with feature saliency. We demonstrate the performance of VICatMix with both simulated and real-world data, including applications to datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), showing its use in cancer subtyping and driver gene discovery. We demonstrate VICatMix's utility in integrative cluster analysis with different `omics datasets, enabling the discovery of novel subtypes. \textbf{Availability:} VICatMix is freely available as an R package, incorporating C++ for faster computation, at \url{https://github.com/j-ackierao/VICatMix}.