One of the reasons why stochastic dynamic games with an underlying dynamic system are challenging is since strategic players have access to enormous amount of information which leads to the use of extremely complex strategies at equilibrium. One approach to resolve this challenge is to simplify players' strategies by identifying appropriate compression of information maps so that the players can make decisions solely based on the compressed version of information, called the information state. For finite dynamic games with asymmetric information, inspired by the notion of information state for single-agent control problems, we propose two notions of information states, namely mutually sufficient information (MSI) and unilaterally sufficient information (USI). Both these information states are obtained with information compression maps independent of the strategy profile. We show that Bayes-Nash Equilibria (BNE) and Sequential Equilibria (SE) exist when all players use MSI-based strategies. We prove that when all players employ USI-based strategies the resulting sets of BNE and SE payoff profiles are the same as the sets of BNE and SE payoff profiles resulting when all players use full information-based strategies. We prove that when all players use USI-based strategies the resulting set of weak Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (wPBE) payoff profiles can be a proper subset of all wPBE payoff profiles. We identify MSI and USI in specific models of dynamic games in the literature. We end by presenting an open problem: Do there exist strategy-dependent information compression maps that guarantee the existence of at least one equilibrium or maintain all equilibria that exist under perfect recall? We show, by a counterexample, that a well-known strategy-dependent information compression map used in the literature does not possess any of the properties of MSI or USI.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) struggles to capture real-world cause-and-effect dynamics, leading to inefficient exploration due to extensive trial-and-error actions. While recent efforts to improve agent exploration have leveraged causal discovery, they often make unrealistic assumptions of causal variables in the environments. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework, Variable-Agnostic Causal Exploration for Reinforcement Learning (VACERL), incorporating causal relationships to drive exploration in RL without specifying environmental causal variables. Our approach automatically identifies crucial observation-action steps associated with key variables using attention mechanisms. Subsequently, it constructs the causal graph connecting these steps, which guides the agent towards observation-action pairs with greater causal influence on task completion. This can be leveraged to generate intrinsic rewards or establish a hierarchy of subgoals to enhance exploration efficiency. Experimental results showcase a significant improvement in agent performance in grid-world, 2d games and robotic domains, particularly in scenarios with sparse rewards and noisy actions, such as the notorious Noisy-TV environments.

Learning policies for multi-entity systems in 3D environments is far more complicated against single-entity scenarios, due to the exponential expansion of the global state space as the number of entities increases. One potential solution of alleviating the exponential complexity is dividing the global space into independent local views that are invariant to transformations including translations and rotations. To this end, this paper proposes Subequivariant Hierarchical Neural Networks (SHNN) to facilitate multi-entity policy learning. In particular, SHNN first dynamically decouples the global space into local entity-level graphs via task assignment. Second, it leverages subequivariant message passing over the local entity-level graphs to devise local reference frames, remarkably compressing the representation redundancy, particularly in gravity-affected environments. Furthermore, to overcome the limitations of existing benchmarks in capturing the subtleties of multi-entity systems under the Euclidean symmetry, we propose the Multi-entity Benchmark (MEBEN), a new suite of environments tailored for exploring a wide range of multi-entity reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate significant advancements of SHNN on the proposed benchmarks compared to existing methods. Comprehensive ablations are conducted to verify the indispensability of task assignment and subequivariance.

The mainstream AI community has seen a rise in large-scale open-source classifiers, often pre-trained on vast datasets and tested on standard benchmarks; however, users facing diverse needs and limited, expensive test data may be overwhelmed by available choices. Deep Neural Network (DNN) classifiers undergo training, validation, and testing phases using example dataset, with the testing phase focused on determining the classification accuracy of test examples without delving into the inner working of the classifier. In this work, we evaluate a DNN classifier's training quality without any example dataset. It is assumed that a DNN is a composition of a feature extractor and a classifier which is the penultimate completely connected layer. The quality of a classifier is estimated using its weight vectors. The feature extractor is characterized using two metrics that utilize feature vectors it produces when synthetic data is fed as input. These synthetic input vectors are produced by backpropagating desired outputs of the classifier. Our empirical study of the proposed method for ResNet18, trained with CAFIR10 and CAFIR100 datasets, confirms that data-less evaluation of DNN classifiers is indeed possible.

Understanding causal relationships between machines is crucial for fault diagnosis and optimization in manufacturing processes. Real-world datasets frequently exhibit up to 90% missing data and high dimensionality from hundreds of sensors. These datasets also include domain-specific expert knowledge and chronological order information, reflecting the recording order across different machines, which is pivotal for discerning causal relationships within the manufacturing data. However, previous methods for handling missing data in scenarios akin to real-world conditions have not been able to effectively utilize expert knowledge. Conversely, prior methods that can incorporate expert knowledge struggle with datasets that exhibit missing values. Therefore, we propose COKE to construct causal graphs in manufacturing datasets by leveraging expert knowledge and chronological order among sensors without imputing missing data. Utilizing the characteristics of the recipe, we maximize the use of samples with missing values, derive embeddings from intersections with an initial graph that incorporates expert knowledge and chronological order, and create a sensor ordering graph. The graph-generating process has been optimized by an actor-critic architecture to obtain a final graph that has a maximum reward. Experimental evaluations in diverse settings of sensor quantities and missing proportions demonstrate that our approach compared with the benchmark methods shows an average improvement of 39.9% in the F1-score. Moreover, the F1-score improvement can reach 62.6% when considering the configuration similar to real-world datasets, and 85.0% in real-world semiconductor datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/OuTingYun/COKE.

A sequential decision-making agent balances between exploring to gain new knowledge about an environment and exploiting current knowledge to maximize immediate reward. For environments studied in the traditional literature, optimal decisions gravitate over time toward exploitation as the agent accumulates sufficient knowledge and the benefits of further exploration vanish. What if, however, the environment offers an unlimited amount of useful knowledge and there is large benefit to further exploration no matter how much the agent has learned? We offer a simple, quintessential example of such a complex environment. In this environment, rewards are unbounded and an agent can always increase the rate at which rewards accumulate by exploring to learn more. Consequently, an optimal agent forever maintains a propensity to explore.

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep Networks. Although measurable, this form of uncertainty is difficult to calibrate on an objective basis as it depends on the prior for which a variety of choices exist. Nevertheless, epistemic uncertainty must in all cases satisfy two formal requirements: firstly, it must decrease when the training dataset gets larger and, secondly, it must increase when the model expressiveness grows. Despite these expectations, our experimental study shows that on several reference datasets and models, measures of epistemic uncertainty violate these requirements, sometimes presenting trends completely opposite to those expected. These paradoxes between expectation and reality raise the question of the true utility of epistemic uncertainty as estimated by these models. A formal argument suggests that this disagreement is due to a poor approximation of the posterior distribution rather than to a flaw in the measure itself. Based on this observation, we propose a regularization function for deep ensembles, called conflictual loss in line with the above requirements. We emphasize its strengths by showing experimentally that it fulfills both requirements of epistemic uncertainty, without sacrificing either the performance nor the calibration of the deep ensembles.

Q-learning algorithms are appealing for real-world applications due to their data-efficiency, but they are very prone to overfitting and training instabilities when trained from visual observations. Prior work, namely SVEA, finds that selective application of data augmentation can improve the visual generalization of RL agents without destabilizing training. We revisit its recipe for data augmentation, and find an assumption that limits its effectiveness to augmentations of a photometric nature. Addressing these limitations, we propose a generalized recipe, SADA, that works with wider varieties of augmentations. We benchmark its effectiveness on DMC-GB2 - our proposed extension of the popular DMControl Generalization Benchmark - as well as tasks from Meta-World and the Distracting Control Suite, and find that our method, SADA, greatly improves training stability and generalization of RL agents across a diverse set of augmentations. For visualizations, code and benchmark: see https://aalmuzairee.github.io/SADA/

A default assumption in the design of reinforcement-learning algorithms is that a decision-making agent always explores to learn optimal behavior. In sufficiently complex environments that approach the vastness and scale of the real world, however, attaining optimal performance may in fact be an entirely intractable endeavor and an agent may seldom find itself in a position to complete the requisite exploration for identifying an optimal policy. Recent work has leveraged tools from information theory to design agents that deliberately forgo optimal solutions in favor of sufficiently-satisfying or satisficing solutions, obtained through lossy compression. Notably, such agents may employ fundamentally different exploratory decisions to learn satisficing behaviors more efficiently than optimal ones that are more data intensive. While supported by a rigorous corroborating theory, the underlying algorithm relies on model-based planning, drastically limiting the compatibility of these ideas with function approximation and high-dimensional observations. In this work, we remedy this issue by extending an agent that directly represents uncertainty over the optimal value function allowing it to both bypass the need for model-based planning and to learn satisficing policies. We provide simple yet illustrative experiments that demonstrate how our algorithm enables deep reinforcement-learning agents to achieve satisficing behaviors. In keeping with previous work on this setting for multi-armed bandits, we additionally find that our algorithm is capable of synthesizing optimal behaviors, when feasible, more efficiently than its non-information-theoretic counterpart.

We propose a deep generative approach using latent temporal processes for modeling and holistically analyzing complex disease trajectories, with a particular focus on Systemic Sclerosis (SSc). We aim to learn temporal latent representations of the underlying generative process that explain the observed patient disease trajectories in an interpretable and comprehensive way. To enhance the interpretability of these latent temporal processes, we develop a semi-supervised approach for disentangling the latent space using established medical knowledge. By combining the generative approach with medical definitions of different characteristics of SSc, we facilitate the discovery of new aspects of the disease. We show that the learned temporal latent processes can be utilized for further data analysis and clinical hypothesis testing, including finding similar patients and clustering SSc patient trajectories into novel sub-types. Moreover, our method enables personalized online monitoring and prediction of multivariate time series with uncertainty quantification.