We study the problem of finding the index of the minimum value of a vector from noisy observations. This problem is relevant in population/policy comparison, discrete maximum likelihood, and model selection. We develop a test statistic that is asymptotically normal, even in high-dimensional settings and with potentially many ties in the population mean vector, by integrating concepts and tools from cross-validation and differential privacy. The key technical ingredient is a central limit theorem for globally dependent data. We also propose practical ways to select the tuning parameter that adapts to the signal landscape.

An optimal randomized strategy for design of balanced, normalized mass transport plans is developed. It replaces -- but specializes to -- the deterministic, regularized optimal transport (OT) strategy, which yields only a certainty-equivalent plan. The incompletely specified -- and therefore uncertain -- transport plan is acknowledged to be a random process. Therefore, hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) is adopted, yielding an optimal hyperprior supported on the set of possible transport plans, and consistent with prior mean constraints on the marginals of the uncertain plan. This Bayesian resetting of the design problem for transport plans -- which we call HFPD-OT -- confers new opportunities. These include (i) a strategy for the generation of a random sample of joint transport plans; (ii) randomized marginal contracts for individual source-target pairs; and (iii) consistent measures of uncertainty in the plan and its contracts. An application in algorithmic fairness is outlined, where HFPD-OT enables the recruitment of a more diverse subset of contracts -- than is possible in classical OT -- into the delivery of an expected plan. Also, it permits fairness proxies to be endowed with uncertainty quantifiers.

Computer-mediated communication has become more important than face-to-face communication in many contexts. Tracking emotional dynamics in chat conversations can enhance communication, improve services, and support well-being in various contexts. This paper explores a hybrid approach to tracking emotional dynamics in chat conversations by combining DistilBERT-based text emotion detection and emoji sentiment analysis. A Twitter dataset was analyzed using various machine learning algorithms, including SVM, Random Forest, and AdaBoost. We contrasted their performance with DistilBERT. Results reveal DistilBERT's superior performance in emotion recognition. Our approach accounts for emotive expressions conveyed through emojis to better understand participants' emotions during chats. We demonstrate how this approach can effectively capture and analyze emotional shifts in real-time conversations. Our findings show that integrating text and emoji analysis is an effective way of tracking chat emotion, with possible applications in customer service, work chats, and social media interactions.

The vast majority of the literature on learning dynamical systems or stochastic processes from time series has focused on stable or ergodic systems, for both Bayesian and frequentist inference procedures. However, most real-world systems are only metastable, that is, the dynamics appear to be stable on some time scale, but are in fact unstable over longer time scales. Consistency of inference for metastable systems may not be possible, but one can ask about metaconsistency: Do inference procedures converge when observations are taken over a large but finite time interval, but diverge on longer time scales? In this paper we introduce, discuss, and quantify metaconsistency in a Bayesian framework. We discuss how metaconsistency can be exploited to efficiently infer a model for a sub-system of a larger system, where inference on the global behavior may require much more data. We also discuss the relation between meta-consistency and the spectral properties of the model dynamical system in the case of uniformly ergodic diffusions.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized decision-making processes and systems throughout society and, in particular, has emerged as a significant technology in high-impact scenarios of national interest. Yet, despite AI's impressive predictive capabilities in controlled settings, it still suffers from a range of practical setbacks preventing its widespread use in various critical scenarios. In particular, it is generally unclear if a given AI system's predictions can be trusted by decision-makers in downstream applications. To address the need for more transparent, robust, and trustworthy AI systems, a suite of tools has been developed to quantify the uncertainty of AI predictions and, more generally, enable AI to "self-assess" the reliability of its predictions. In this manuscript, we categorize methods for AI self-assessment along several key dimensions and provide guidelines for selecting and designing the appropriate method for a practitioner's needs. In particular, we focus on uncertainty estimation techniques that consider the impact of self-assessment on the choices made by downstream decision-makers and on the resulting costs and benefits of decision outcomes. To demonstrate the utility of our methodology for self-assessment design, we illustrate its use for two realistic national-interest scenarios. This manuscript is a practical guide for machine learning engineers and AI system users to select the ideal self-assessment techniques for each problem.

In order to deploy deep neural networks (DNNs) in high-stakes scenarios, it is imperative that DNNs provide inference robust to external perturbations - both intentional and unintentional. Although the resilience of DNNs to intentional and unintentional perturbations has been widely investigated, a unified vision of these inherently intertwined problem domains is still missing. In this work, we fill this gap by providing a survey of the state of the art and highlighting the similarities of the proposed approaches.We also analyze the research challenges that need to be addressed to deploy resilient and secure DNNs. As there has not been any such survey connecting the resilience of DNNs to intentional and unintentional perturbations, we believe this work can help advance the frontier in both domains by enabling the exchange of ideas between the two communities.

Machine learning has witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in recent years. As machine learning permeates various aspects of daily life, individuals and organizations increasingly interact with these systems, exhibiting a wide range of social and adversarial behaviors. These behaviors may have a notable impact on the behavior and performance of machine learning systems. Specifically, during these interactions, data may be generated by strategic individuals, collected by self-interested data collectors, possibly poisoned by adversarial attackers, and used to create predictors, models, and policies satisfying multiple objectives. As a result, the machine learning systems' outputs might degrade, such as the susceptibility of deep neural networks to adversarial examples (Shafahi et al., 2018; Szegedy et al., 2013) and the diminished performance of classic algorithms in the presence of strategic individuals (Ahmadi et al., 2021). Addressing these challenges is imperative for the success of machine learning in societal settings.

In decision-making scenarios, \textit{reasoning} can be viewed as an algorithm $P$ that makes a choice of an action $a^* \in \mathcal{A}$, aiming to optimize some outcome such as maximizing the value function of a Markov decision process (MDP). However, executing $P$ itself may bear some costs (time, energy, limited capacity, etc.) and needs to be considered alongside explicit utility obtained by making the choice in the underlying decision problem. Such costs need to be taken into account in order to accurately model human behavior, as well as optimizing AI planning, as all physical systems are bound to face resource constraints. Finding the right $P$ can itself be framed as an optimization problem over the space of reasoning processes $P$, generally referred to as \textit{metareasoning}. Conventionally, human metareasoning models assume that the agent knows the transition and reward distributions of the underlying MDP. This paper generalizes such models by proposing a meta Bayes-Adaptive MDP (meta-BAMDP) framework to handle metareasoning in environments with unknown reward/transition distributions, which encompasses a far larger and more realistic set of planning problems that humans and AI systems face. As a first step, we apply the framework to two-armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) tasks, which have often been used to study human decision making. Owing to the meta problem's complexity, our solutions are necessarily approximate, but nevertheless robust within a range of assumptions that are arguably realistic for human decision-making scenarios. These results offer a normative framework for understanding human exploration under cognitive constraints. This integration of Bayesian adaptive strategies with metareasoning enriches both the theoretical landscape of decision-making research and practical applications in designing AI systems that plan under uncertainty and resource constraints.

Abstract-- To work in unknown outdoor environments, autonomous sampling machines need the ability to target samples despite limited visibility and robotic arm reach distance. We design a heuristic guided search method to speed up the search process and more efficiently localize the approximate center of soil regions. Through simulation experiments, we assess the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and discover superior performance in terms of speed, distance traveled, and success rate compared to naive baselines. I. INTRODUCTION In this paper, we address the problem of autonomous sample collection in outdoor, unknown environments. While Figure 1: In this example, a robot--perhaps a camera mounted collecting soil or similar organic material, there are no end effector of a robotic arm--uses a heuristic method to guarantees that samples will be reachable, visible, or even search for the center of a soil region in a sample distribution. For this reason, a robot needs an effective search task The circle is the start position, and the star indicates the to locate and move sufficiently close to the samples prior to center which the agent aims to reach.

In modern and personalised education, there is a growing interest in developing learners' competencies and accurately assessing them. In a previous work, we proposed a procedure for deriving a learner model for automatic skill assessment from a task-specific competence rubric, thus simplifying the implementation of automated assessment tools. The previous approach, however, suffered two main limitations: (i) the ordering between competencies defined by the assessment rubric was only indirectly modelled; (ii) supplementary skills, not under assessment but necessary for accomplishing the task, were not included in the model. In this work, we address issue (i) by introducing dummy observed nodes, strictly enforcing the skills ordering without changing the network's structure. In contrast, for point (ii), we design a network with two layers of gates, one performing disjunctive operations by noisy-OR gates and the other conjunctive operations through logical ANDs. Such changes improve the model outcomes' coherence and the modelling tool's flexibility without compromising the model's compact parametrisation, interpretability and simple experts' elicitation. We used this approach to develop a learner model for Computational Thinking (CT) skills assessment. The CT-cube skills assessment framework and the Cross Array Task (CAT) are used to exemplify it and demonstrate its feasibility.