The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) provides a general framework for modeling an agent's decision process with state uncertainty, and online planning plays a pivotal role in solving it. A belief is a distribution of states representing state uncertainty. Methods for large-scale POMDP problems rely on the same idea of sampling both states and observations. That is, instead of exact belief updating, a collection of sampled states is used to approximate the belief; instead of considering all possible observations, only a set of sampled observations are considered. Inspired by this, we take one step further and propose an online planning algorithm, Adaptive Online Packing-guided Search (AdaOPS), to better approximate beliefs with adaptive particle filter technique and balance estimation bias and variance by fusing similar observation branches. Theoretically, our algorithm is guaranteed to find an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with a high probability given enough planning time under some mild assumptions. We evaluate our algorithm on several tricky POMDP domains, and it outperforms the state-of-the-art in all of them.

State-of-the-art efficient model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms typically act by iteratively solving empirical models, i.e., by performing full-planning on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) built by the gathered experience. In this paper, we focus on model-based RL in the finite-state finite-horizon MDP setting and establish that exploring with greedy policies -- act by 1-step planning -- can achieve tight minimax performance in terms of regret, O(\sqrt{HSAT}). Thus, full-planning in model-based RL can be avoided altogether without any performance degradation, and, by doing so, the computational complexity decreases by a factor of S. The results are based on a novel analysis of real-time dynamic programming, then extended to model-based RL. Specifically, we generalize existing algorithms that perform full-planning to such that act by 1-step planning. For these generalizations, we prove regret bounds with the same rate as their full-planning counterparts.

Information-directed sampling (IDS) has revealed its potential as a data-efficient algorithm for reinforcement learning (RL). However, theoretical understanding of IDS for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is still limited. We develop novel information-theoretic tools to bound the information ratio and cumulative information gain about the learning target. Our theoretical results shed light on the importance of choosing the learning target such that the practitioners can balance the computation and regret bounds. As a consequence, we derive prior-free Bayesian regret bounds for vanilla-IDS which learns the whole environment under tabular finite-horizon MDPs. In addition, we propose a computationally-efficient regularized-IDS that maximizes an additive form rather than the ratio form and show that it enjoys the same regret bound as vanilla-IDS. With the aid of rate-distortion theory, we improve the regret bound by learning a surrogate, less informative environment. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to linear MDPs and prove similar regret bounds for Thompson sampling as a by-product.

Knowledge graph reasoning, which aims at predicting missing facts through reasoning with observed facts, is critical for many applications. Such a problem has been widely explored by traditional logic rule-based approaches and recent knowledge graph embedding methods. A principled logic rule-based approach is the Markov Logic Network (MLN), which is able to leverage domain knowledge with first-order logic and meanwhile handle uncertainty. However, the inference in MLNs is usually very difficult due to the complicated graph structures.

We investigate the classical active pure exploration problem in Markov Decision Processes, where the agent sequentially selects actions and, from the resulting system trajectory, aims at identifying the best policy as fast as possible. We propose a problem-dependent lower bound on the average number of steps required before a correct answer can be given with probability at least $1-\delta$. We further provide the first algorithm with an instance-specific sample complexity in this setting. This algorithm addresses the general case of communicating MDPs; we also propose a variant with a reduced exploration rate (and hence faster convergence) under an additional ergodicity assumption. This work extends previous results relative to the \emph{generative setting}~\cite{pmlr-v139-marjani21a}, where the agent could at each step query the random outcome of any (state, action) pair. In contrast, we show here how to deal with the \emph{navigation constraints}, induced by the \emph{online setting}. Our analysis relies on an ergodic theorem for non-homogeneous Markov chains which we consider of wide interest in the analysis of Markov Decision Processes.

Generalization is a central challenge for the deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) systems in the real world. In this paper, we show that the sequential structure of the RL problem necessitates new approaches to generalization beyond the well-studied techniques used in supervised learning. While supervised learning methods can generalize effectively without explicitly accounting for epistemic uncertainty, we describe why appropriate uncertainty handling can actually be essential in RL. We show that generalization to unseen test conditions from a limited number of training conditions induces a kind of implicit partial observability, effectively turning even fully-observed MDPs into POMDPs. Informed by this observation, we recast the problem of generalization in RL as solving the induced partially observed Markov decision process, which we call the epistemic POMDP. We demonstrate the failure modes of algorithms that do not appropriately handle this partial observability, and suggest a simple ensemble-based technique for approximately solving the partially observed problem. Empirically, we demonstrate that our simple algorithm derived from the epistemic POMDP achieves significant gains in generalization over current methods on the Procgen benchmark suite.

In this paper, we study the episodic reinforcement learning (RL) problem modeled by finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with constraint on the number of batches. The multi-batch reinforcement learning framework, where the agent is required to provide a time schedule to update policy before everything, which is particularly suitable for the scenarios where the agent suffers extensively from changing the policy adaptively. Given a finite-horizon MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions and planning horizon $H$, we design a computational efficient algorithm to achieve near-optimal regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K\ln(1/\delta)})$\footnote{$\tilde{O}(\cdot)$ hides logarithmic terms of $(S,A,H,K)$} in $K$ episodes using $O\left(H+\log_2\log_2(K) \right)$ batches with confidence parameter $\delta$. To our best of knowledge, it is the first $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K})$ regret bound with $O(H+\log_2\log_2(K))$ batch complexity. Meanwhile, we show that to achieve $\tilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(S,A,H)\sqrt{K})$ regret, the number of batches is at least $\Omega\left(H/\log_A(K)+ \log_2\log_2(K) \right)$, which matches our upper bound up to logarithmic terms.Our technical contribution are two-fold: 1) a near-optimal design scheme to explore over the unlearned states; 2) an computational efficient algorithm to explore certain directions with an approximated transition model.ion

Policy optimization is a widely-used method in reinforcement learning. Due to its local-search nature, however, theoretical guarantees on global optimality often rely on extra assumptions on the Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that bypass the challenge of global exploration. To eliminate the need of such assumptions, in this work, we develop a general solution that adds dilated bonuses to the policy update to facilitate global exploration. To showcase the power and generality of this technique, we apply it to several episodic MDP settings with adversarial losses and bandit feedback, improving and generalizing the state-of-the-art.

A core goal in systems neuroscience and neuroethology is to understand how neural circuits generate naturalistic behavior. One foundational idea is that complex naturalistic behavior may be composed of sequences of stereotyped behavioral syllables, which combine to generate rich sequences of actions. To investigate this, a common approach is to use autoregressive hidden Markov models (ARHMMs) to segment video into discrete behavioral syllables. While these approaches have been successful in extracting syllables that are interpretable, they fail to account for other forms of behavioral variability, such as differences in speed, which may be better described as continuous in nature. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a class of warped ARHMMs (WARHMM). As is the case in the ARHMM, behavior is modeled as a mixture of autoregressive dynamics.

Partial observability is a common challenge in many reinforcement learning applications, which requires an agent to maintain memory, infer latent states, and integrate this past information into exploration. This challenge leads to a number of computational and statistical hardness results for learning general Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). This work shows that these hardness barriers do not preclude efficient reinforcement learning for rich and interesting subclasses of POMDPs. In particular, we present a sample-efficient algorithm, OOM-UCB, for episodic finite undercomplete POMDPs, where the number of observations is larger than the number of latent states and where exploration is essential for learning, thus distinguishing our results from prior works. OOM-UCB achieves an optimal sample complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\varepsilon^2)$ for finding an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy, along with being polynomial in all other relevant quantities. As an interesting special case, we also provide a computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for POMDPs with deterministic state transitions.