Knowledge tracing aims to track students' knowledge status over time to predict students' future performance accurately. Markov chain-based knowledge tracking (MCKT) models can track knowledge concept mastery probability over time. However, as the number of tracked knowledge concepts increases, the time complexity of MCKT predicting student performance increases exponentially (also called explaining away problem. In addition, the existing MCKT models only consider the relationship between students' knowledge status and problems when modeling students' responses but ignore the relationship between knowledge concepts in the same problem. To address these challenges, we propose an inTerpretable pRobAbilistiC gEnerative moDel (TRACED), which can track students' numerous knowledge concepts mastery probabilities over time. To solve \emph{explain away problem}, we design Long and Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based networks to approximate the posterior distribution, predict students' future performance, and propose a heuristic algorithm to train LSTMs and probabilistic graphical model jointly. To better model students' exercise responses, we proposed a logarithmic linear model with three interactive strategies, which models students' exercise responses by considering the relationship among students' knowledge status, knowledge concept, and problems. We conduct experiments with four real-world datasets in three knowledge-driven tasks. The experimental results show that TRACED outperforms existing knowledge tracing methods in predicting students' future performance and can learn the relationship among students, knowledge concepts, and problems from students' exercise sequences. We also conduct several case studies. The case studies show that TRACED exhibits excellent interpretability and thus has the potential for personalized automatic feedback in the real-world educational environment.

This paper is concerned with offline reinforcement learning (RL), which learns using pre-collected data without further exploration. Effective offline RL would be able to accommodate distribution shift and limited data coverage. However, prior algorithms or analyses either suffer from suboptimal sample complexities or incur high burn-in cost to reach sample optimality, thus posing an impediment to efficient offline RL in sample-starved applications. We demonstrate that the model-based (or "plug-in") approach achieves minimax-optimal sample complexity without burn-in cost for tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). Concretely, consider a finite-horizon (resp. $\gamma$-discounted infinite-horizon) MDP with $S$ states and horizon $H$ (resp. effective horizon $\frac{1}{1-\gamma}$), and suppose the distribution shift of data is reflected by some single-policy clipped concentrability coefficient $C^{\star}_{\text{clipped}}$. We prove that model-based offline RL yields $\varepsilon$-accuracy with a sample complexity of \[ \begin{cases} \frac{H^{4}SC_{\text{clipped}}^{\star}}{\varepsilon^{2}} & (\text{finite-horizon MDPs}) \frac{SC_{\text{clipped}}^{\star}}{(1-\gamma)^{3}\varepsilon^{2}} & (\text{infinite-horizon MDPs}) \end{cases} \] up to log factor, which is minimax optimal for the entire $\varepsilon$-range. The proposed algorithms are ``pessimistic'' variants of value iteration with Bernstein-style penalties, and do not require sophisticated variance reduction. Our analysis framework is established upon delicate leave-one-out decoupling arguments in conjunction with careful self-bounding techniques tailored to MDPs.

Decentralized policy optimization has been commonly used in cooperative multi-agent tasks. However, since all agents are updating their policies simultaneously, from the perspective of individual agents, the environment is non-stationary, resulting in it being hard to guarantee monotonic policy improvement. To help the policy improvement be stable and monotonic, we propose model-based decentralized policy optimization (MDPO), which incorporates a latent variable function to help construct the transition and reward function from an individual perspective. We theoretically analyze that the policy optimization of MDPO is more stable than model-free decentralized policy optimization. Moreover, due to non-stationarity, the latent variable function is varying and hard to be modeled. We further propose a latent variable prediction method to reduce the error of the latent variable function, which theoretically contributes to the monotonic policy improvement. Empirically, MDPO can indeed obtain superior performance than model-free decentralized policy optimization in a variety of cooperative multi-agent tasks.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of \textit{episodic reinforcement learning} with quantum oracles for state evolution. To this end, we propose an \textit{Upper Confidence Bound} (UCB) based quantum algorithmic framework to facilitate learning of a finite-horizon MDP. Our quantum algorithm achieves an exponential improvement in regret as compared to the classical counterparts, achieving a regret of $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1)$ as compared to $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K})$ \footnote{$\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\cdot)$ hides logarithmic terms.}, $K$ being the number of training episodes. In order to achieve this advantage, we exploit efficient quantum mean estimation technique that provides quadratic improvement in the number of i.i.d. samples needed to estimate the mean of sub-Gaussian random variables as compared to classical mean estimation. This improvement is a key to the significant regret improvement in quantum reinforcement learning. We provide proof-of-concept experiments on various RL environments that in turn demonstrate performance gains of the proposed algorithmic framework.

We propose a new Markov Decision Process (MDP) model for ad auctions to capture the user response to the quality of ads, with the objective of maximizing the long-term discounted revenue. By incorporating user response, our model takes into consideration all three parties involved in the auction (advertiser, auctioneer, and user). The state of the user is modeled as a user-specific click-through rate (CTR) with the CTR changing in the next round according to the set of ads shown to the user in the current round. We characterize the optimal mechanism for this MDP as a Myerson's auction with a notion of modified virtual value, which relies on the value distribution of the advertiser, the current user state, and the future impact of showing the ad to the user. Moreover, we propose a simple mechanism built upon second price auctions with personalized reserve prices and show it can achieve a constant-factor approximation to the optimal long term discounted revenue.

The symbolic AI community is increasingly trying to embrace machine learning in neuro-symbolic architectures, yet is still struggling due to cultural barriers. To break the barrier, this rather opinionated personal memo attempts to explain and rectify the conventions in Statistics, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning from the viewpoint of outsiders. It provides a step-by-step protocol for designing a machine learning system that satisfies a minimum theoretical guarantee necessary for being taken seriously by the symbolic AI community, i.e., it discusses "in what condition we can stop worrying and accept statistical machine learning." Unlike most textbooks which are written for students trying to specialize in Stat/ML/DL and willing to accept jargons, this memo is written for experienced symbolic researchers that hear a lot of buzz but are still uncertain and skeptical. Information on Stat/ML/DL is currently too scattered or too noisy to invest in. This memo prioritizes compactness, citations to old papers (many in early 20th century), and concepts that resonate well with symbolic paradigms in order to offer time savings. It prioritizes general mathematical modeling and does not discuss any specific function approximator, such as neural networks (NNs), SVMs, decision trees, etc. Finally, it is open to corrections. Consider this memo as something similar to a blog post taking the form of a paper on Arxiv.

We consider the problem of testing the identity of a reversible Markov chain against a reference from a single trajectory of observations. Employing the recently introduced notion of a lumping-congruent Markov embedding, we show that, at least in a mildly restricted setting, testing identity to a reversible chain reduces to testing to a symmetric chain over a larger state space and recover state-of-the-art sample complexity for the problem.

Knowledge tracing (KT) serves as a primary part of intelligent education systems. Most current KTs either rely on expert judgments or only exploit a single network structure, which affects the full expression of learning features. To adequately mine features of students' learning process, Deep Knowledge Tracing Based on Spatial and Temporal Deep Representation Learning for Learning Performance Prediction (DKT-STDRL) is proposed in this paper. DKT-STDRL extracts spatial features from students' learning history sequence, and then further extracts temporal features to extract deeper hidden information. Specifically, firstly, the DKT-STDRL model uses CNN to extract the spatial feature information of students' exercise sequences. Then, the spatial features are connected with the original students' exercise features as joint learning features. Then, the joint features are input into the BiLSTM part. Finally, the BiLSTM part extracts the temporal features from the joint learning features to obtain the prediction information of whether the students answer correctly at the next time step. Experiments on the public education datasets ASSISTment2009, ASSISTment2015, Synthetic-5, ASSISTchall, and Statics2011 prove that DKT-STDRL can achieve better prediction effects than DKT and CKT.

Cross-silo federated learning (FL) is a typical FL that enables organizations(e.g., financial or medical entities) to train global models on isolated data. Reasonable incentive is key to encouraging organizations to contribute data. However, existing works on incentivizing cross-silo FL lack consideration of the environmental dynamics (e.g., precision of the trained global model and data owned by uncertain clients during the training processes). Moreover, most of them assume that organizations share private information, which is unrealistic. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel adaptive mechanism for cross-silo FL, towards incentivizing organizations to contribute data to maximize their long-term payoffs in a real dynamic training environment. The mechanism is based on multi-agent reinforcement learning, which learns near-optimal data contribution strategy from the history of potential games without organizations' private information. Experiments demonstrate that our mechanism achieves adaptive incentive and effectively improves the long-term payoffs for organizations.

This work presents a novel, inference-based approach to the distributed and cooperative flocking control of aerial robot swarms. The proposed method stems from the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) dynamics by limiting the latent set to the robots' feasible action space, thus preventing any unattainable control inputs from being produced and leading to smooth flocking behavior. By modeling the inter-agent relationships using a pairwise energy function, we show that interacting robot swarms constitute a Markov Random Field. Our algorithm builds on the Mean-Field Approximation and incorporates the collective behavioral rules: cohesion, separation, and velocity alignment. We follow a distributed control scheme and show that our method can control a swarm of UAVs to a formation and velocity consensus with real-time collision avoidance. We validate the proposed method with physical UAVs and high-fidelity simulation experiments.