Various probabilistic time series forecasting models have sprung up and shown remarkably good performance. However, the choice of model highly relies on the characteristics of the input time series and the fixed distribution that the model is based on. Due to the fact that the probability distributions cannot be averaged over different models straightforwardly, the current time series model ensemble methods cannot be directly applied to improve the robustness and accuracy of forecasting. To address this issue, we propose pTSE, a multi-model distribution ensemble method for probabilistic forecasting based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM). pTSE only takes off-the-shelf outputs from member models without requiring further information about each model. Besides, we provide a complete theoretical analysis of pTSE to prove that the empirical distribution of time series subject to an HMM will converge to the stationary distribution almost surely. Experiments on benchmarks show the superiority of pTSE overall member models and competitive ensemble methods.

Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are one of the common ways to model safe reinforcement learning problems, where constraint functions model the safety objectives. Lagrangian-based dual or primal-dual algorithms provide efficient methods for learning in CMDPs. For these algorithms, the currently known regret bounds in the finite-horizon setting allow for a "cancellation of errors"; one can compensate for a constraint violation in one episode with a strict constraint satisfaction in another. However, we do not consider such a behavior safe in practical applications. In this paper, we overcome this weakness by proposing a novel model-based dual algorithm OptAug-CMDP for tabular finite-horizon CMDPs. Our algorithm is motivated by the augmented Lagrangian method and can be performed efficiently. We show that during $K$ episodes of exploring the CMDP, our algorithm obtains a regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{K})$ for both the objective and the constraint violation. Unlike existing Lagrangian approaches, our algorithm achieves this regret without the need for the cancellation of errors.

Mathematical methods are developed to characterize the asymptotics of recurrent neural networks (RNN) as the number of hidden units, data samples in the sequence, hidden state updates, and training steps simultaneously grow to infinity. In the case of an RNN with a simplified weight matrix, we prove the convergence of the RNN to the solution of an infinite-dimensional ODE coupled with the fixed point of a random algebraic equation. The analysis requires addressing several challenges which are unique to RNNs. In typical mean-field applications (e.g., feedforward neural networks), discrete updates are of magnitude $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{N})$ and the number of updates is $\mathcal{O}(N)$. Therefore, the system can be represented as an Euler approximation of an appropriate ODE/PDE, which it will converge to as $N \rightarrow \infty$. However, the RNN hidden layer updates are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. Therefore, RNNs cannot be represented as a discretization of an ODE/PDE and standard mean-field techniques cannot be applied. Instead, we develop a fixed point analysis for the evolution of the RNN memory states, with convergence estimates in terms of the number of update steps and the number of hidden units. The RNN hidden layer is studied as a function in a Sobolev space, whose evolution is governed by the data sequence (a Markov chain), the parameter updates, and its dependence on the RNN hidden layer at the previous time step. Due to the strong correlation between updates, a Poisson equation must be used to bound the fluctuations of the RNN around its limit equation. These mathematical methods give rise to the neural tangent kernel (NTK) limits for RNNs trained on data sequences as the number of data samples and size of the neural network grow to infinity.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has seen remarkable success in the control of single robots. However, applying DRL to robot swarms presents significant challenges. A critical challenge is non-stationarity, which occurs when two or more robots update individual or shared policies concurrently, thereby engaging in an interdependent training process with no guarantees of convergence. Circumventing non-stationarity typically involves training the robots with global information about other agents' states and/or actions. In contrast, in this paper we explore how to remove the need for global information. We pose our problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, due to the absence of global knowledge on other agents. Using collective transport as a testbed scenario, we study two approaches to multi-agent training. In the first, the robots exchange no messages, and are trained to rely on implicit communication through push-and-pull on the object to transport. In the second approach, we introduce Global State Prediction (GSP), a network trained to forma a belief over the swarm as a whole and predict its future states. We provide a comprehensive study over four well-known deep reinforcement learning algorithms in environments with obstacles, measuring performance as the successful transport of the object to the goal within a desired time-frame. Through an ablation study, we show that including GSP boosts performance and increases robustness when compared with methods that use global knowledge.

We investigate an infinite-horizon average reward Markov Decision Process (MDP) with delayed, composite, and partially anonymous reward feedback. The delay and compositeness of rewards mean that rewards generated as a result of taking an action at a given state are fragmented into different components, and they are sequentially realized at delayed time instances. The partial anonymity attribute implies that a learner, for each state, only observes the aggregate of past reward components generated as a result of different actions taken at that state, but realized at the observation instance. We propose an algorithm named $\mathrm{DUCRL2}$ to obtain a near-optimal policy for this setting and show that it achieves a regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(DS\sqrt{AT} + d (SA)^3\right)$ where $S$ and $A$ are the sizes of the state and action spaces, respectively, $D$ is the diameter of the MDP, $d$ is a parameter upper bounded by the maximum reward delay, and $T$ denotes the time horizon. This demonstrates the optimality of the bound in the order of $T$, and an additive impact of the delay.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible representation for real-world decision and control problems. However, POMDPs are notoriously difficult to solve, especially when the state and observation spaces are continuous or hybrid, which is often the case for physical systems. While recent online sampling-based POMDP algorithms that plan with observation likelihood weighting have shown practical effectiveness, a general theory characterizing the approximation error of the particle filtering techniques that these algorithms use has not previously been proposed. Our main contribution is bounding the error between any POMDP and its corresponding finite sample particle belief MDP (PB-MDP) approximation. This fundamental bridge between PB-MDPs and POMDPs allows us to adapt any sampling-based MDP algorithm to a POMDP by solving the corresponding particle belief MDP, thereby extending the convergence guarantees of the MDP algorithm to the POMDP . Practically, this is implemented by using the particle filter belief transition model as the generative model for the MDP solver. While this requires access to the observation density model from the POMDP, it only increases the transition sampling complexity of the MDP solver by a factor of O (C), where C is the number of particles. Thus, when combined with sparse sampling MDP algorithms, this approach can yield algorithms for POMDPs that have no direct theoretical dependence on the size of the state and observation spaces. In addition to our theoretical contribution, we perform five numerical experiments on benchmark POMDPs to demonstrate that a simple MDP algorithm adapted using PB-MDP approximation, Sparse-PFT, achieves performance competitive with other leading continuous observation POMDP solvers.

This paper proposes a new mathematical paradigm to analyze discrete-time mean-field games. It is shown that finding Nash equilibrium solutions for a general class of discrete-time mean-field games is equivalent to solving an optimization problem with bounded variables and simple convex constraints, called MF-OMO. This equivalence framework enables finding multiple (and possibly all) Nash equilibrium solutions of mean-field games by standard algorithms. For instance, projected gradient descent is shown to be capable of retrieving all possible Nash equilibrium solutions when there are finitely many of them, with proper initializations. Moreover, analyzing mean-field games with linear rewards and mean-field independent dynamics is reduced to solving a finite number of linear programs, hence solvable in finite time. This framework does not rely on the contractive and the monotone assumptions and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium.

The potential of artificial upwelling (AU) as a means of lifting nutrient-rich bottom water to the surface, stimulating seaweed growth, and consequently enhancing ocean carbon sequestration, has been gaining increasing attention in recent years. This has led to the development of the first solar-powered and air-lifted AU system (AUS) in China. However, efficient scheduling of air injection systems in complex marine environments remains a crucial challenge in operating AUS, as it holds the potential to significantly improve energy efficiency. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel energy management approach that utilizes deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithm to develop efficient strategies for operating AUS. Specifically, we formulate the problem of maximizing the energy efficiency of AUS as a Markov decision process and integrate the quantile network in distributional reinforcement learning (QR-DQN) with the deep dueling network to solve it. Through extensive simulations, we evaluate the performance of our algorithm and demonstrate its superior effectiveness over traditional rule-based approaches and other DRL algorithms in reducing energy wastage while ensuring the stable and efficient operation of AUS. Our findings suggest that a DRL-based approach offers a promising way to improve the energy efficiency of AUS and enhance the sustainability of seaweed cultivation and carbon sequestration in the ocean.

Quality-Diversity is a branch of stochastic optimization that is often applied to problems from the Reinforcement Learning and control domains in order to construct repertoires of well-performing policies/skills that exhibit diversity with respect to a behavior space. Such archives are usually composed of a finite number of reactive agents which are each associated to a unique behavior descriptor, and instantiating behavior descriptors outside of that coarsely discretized space is not straight-forward. While a few recent works suggest solutions to that issue, the trajectory that is generated is not easily customizable beyond the specification of a target behavior descriptor. We propose to jointly solve those problems in environments where semantic information about static scene elements is available by leveraging a Large Language Model to augment the repertoire with natural language descriptions of trajectories, and training a policy conditioned on those descriptions. Thus, our method allows a user to not only specify an arbitrary target behavior descriptor, but also provide the model with a high-level textual prompt to shape the generated trajectory. We also propose an LLM-based approach to evaluating the performance of such generative agents. Furthermore, we develop a benchmark based on simulated robot navigation in a 2d maze that we use for experimental validation.

Existing methods for optimal control struggle to deal with the complexity commonly encountered in real-world systems, including dimensionality, process error, model bias and data heterogeneity. Instead of tackling these system complexities directly, researchers have typically sought to simplify models to fit optimal control methods. But when is the optimal solution to an approximate, stylized model better than an approximate solution to a more accurate model? While this question has largely gone unanswered owing to the difficulty of finding even approximate solutions for complex models, recent algorithmic and computational advances in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) might finally allow us to address these questions. DRL methods have to date been applied primarily in the context of games or robotic mechanics, which operate under precisely known rules. Here, we demonstrate the ability for DRL algorithms using deep neural networks to successfully approximate solutions (the "policy function" or control rule) in a non-linear three-variable model for a fishery without knowing or ever attempting to infer a model for the process itself. We find that the reinforcement learning agent discovers an effective simplification of the problem to obtain an interpretable control rule. We show that the policy obtained with DRL is both more profitable and more sustainable than any constant mortality policy -- the standard family of policies considered in fishery management.