Linear temporal logic (LTL) and, more generally, $\omega$-regular objectives are alternatives to the traditional discount sum and average reward objectives in reinforcement learning (RL), offering the advantage of greater comprehensibility and hence explainability. In this work, we study the relationship between these objectives. Our main result is that each RL problem for $\omega$-regular objectives can be reduced to a limit-average reward problem in an optimality-preserving fashion, via (finite-memory) reward machines. Furthermore, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach by showing that optimal policies for limit-average problems can be found asymptotically by solving a sequence of discount-sum problems approximately. Consequently, we resolve an open problem: optimal policies for LTL and $\omega$-regular objectives can be learned asymptotically.

Optimal Bayesian decision making on what geoscientific data to acquire requires stating a prior model of uncertainty. Data acquisition is then optimized by reducing uncertainty on some property of interest maximally, and on average. In the context of exploration, very few, sometimes no data at all, is available prior to data acquisition planning. The prior model therefore needs to include human interpretations on the nature of spatial variability, or on analogue data deemed relevant for the area being explored. In mineral exploration, for example, humans may rely on conceptual models on the genesis of the mineralization to define multiple hypotheses, each representing a specific spatial variability of mineralization. More often than not, after the data is acquired, all of the stated hypotheses may be proven incorrect, i.e. falsified, hence prior hypotheses need to be revised, or additional hypotheses generated. Planning data acquisition under wrong geological priors is likely to be inefficient since the estimated uncertainty on the target property is incorrect, hence uncertainty may not be reduced at all. In this paper, we develop an intelligent agent based on partially observable Markov decision processes that plans optimally in the case of multiple geological or geoscientific hypotheses on the nature of spatial variability. Additionally, the artificial intelligence is equipped with a method that allows detecting, early on, whether the human stated hypotheses are incorrect, thereby saving considerable expense in data acquisition. Our approach is tested on a sediment-hosted copper deposit, and the algorithm presented has aided in the characterization of an ultra high-grade deposit in Zambia in 2023.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful approach for data-driven decision-making and control. Compared to model-free methods, offline model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) explicitly learns world models from a static dataset and uses them as surrogate simulators, improving the data efficiency and enabling the learned policy to potentially generalize beyond the dataset support. However, there could be various MDPs that behave identically on the offline dataset and so dealing with the uncertainty about the true MDP can be challenging. In this paper, we propose modeling offline MBRL as a Bayes Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), which is a principled framework for addressing model uncertainty. We further introduce a novel Bayes Adaptive Monte-Carlo planning algorithm capable of solving BAMDPs in continuous state and action spaces with stochastic transitions. This planning process is based on Monte Carlo Tree Search and can be integrated into offline MBRL as a policy improvement operator in policy iteration. Our ``RL + Search" framework follows in the footsteps of superhuman AIs like AlphaZero, improving on current offline MBRL methods by incorporating more computation input. The proposed algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art model-based and model-free offline RL methods on twelve D4RL MuJoCo benchmark tasks and three target tracking tasks in a challenging, stochastic tokamak control simulator.

Deep reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful tool for obtaining high-performance policies. However, the safety of these policies has been a long-standing issue. One promising paradigm to guarantee safety is a shield, which shields a policy from making unsafe actions. However, computing a shield scales exponentially in the number of state variables. This is a particular concern in multi-agent systems with many agents. In this work, we propose a novel approach for multi-agent shielding. We address scalability by computing individual shields for each agent. The challenge is that typical safety specifications are global properties, but the shields of individual agents only ensure local properties. Our key to overcome this challenge is to apply assume-guarantee reasoning. Specifically, we present a sound proof rule that decomposes a (global, complex) safety specification into (local, simple) obligations for the shields of the individual agents. Moreover, we show that applying the shields during reinforcement learning significantly improves the quality of the policies obtained for a given training budget. We demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our multi-agent shielding framework in two case studies, reducing the computation time from hours to seconds and achieving fast learning convergence.

Modelling dynamic traffic patterns and especially the continuously changing dependencies between different base stations, which previous studies overlook, is challenging. Traditional algorithms struggle to process large volumes of data and to extract deep insights that help elucidate mobile traffic demands with fine granularity, as well as how these demands will evolve in the future. Therefore, in this thesis we harness the powerful hierarchical feature learning abilities of Deep Learning (DL) techniques in both spatial and temporal domains and develop solutions for precise city-scale mobile traffic analysis and forecasting. Firstly, we design Spider, a mobile traffic measurement collection and reconstruction framework with a view to reducing the cost of measurement collection and inferring traffic consumption with high accuracy, despite working with sparse information. In particular, we train a reinforcement learning agent to selectively sample subsets of target mobile coverage areas and tackle the large action space problem specific to this setting. We then introduce a lightweight neural network model to reconstruct the traffic consumption based on historical sparse measurements. Our proposed framework outperforms existing solutions on a real-world mobile traffic dataset. Secondly, we design SDGNet, a handover-aware graph neural network model for long-term mobile traffic forecasting. We model the cellular network as a graph, and leverage handover frequency to capture the dependencies between base stations across time. Handover information reflects user mobility such as daily commute, which helps in increasing the accuracy of the forecasts made. We proposed dynamic graph convolution to extract features from both traffic consumption and handover data, showing that our model outperforms other benchmark graph models on a mobile traffic dataset collected by a major network operator.

This paper studies the safe reinforcement learning problem formulated as an episodic finite-horizon tabular constrained Markov decision process with an unknown transition kernel and stochastic reward and cost functions. We propose a model-based algorithm based on novel cost and reward function estimators that provide tighter cost pessimism and reward optimism. While guaranteeing no constraint violation in every episode, our algorithm achieves a regret upper bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}((\bar C - \bar C_b)^{-1}H^{2.5} S\sqrt{AK})$ where $\bar C$ is the cost budget for an episode, $\bar C_b$ is the expected cost under a safe baseline policy over an episode, $H$ is the horizon, and $S$, $A$ and $K$ are the number of states, actions, and episodes, respectively. This improves upon the best-known regret upper bound, and when $\bar C- \bar C_b=\Omega(H)$, it nearly matches the regret lower bound of $\Omega(H^{1.5}\sqrt{SAK})$. We deduce our cost and reward function estimators via a Bellman-type law of total variance to obtain tight bounds on the expected sum of the variances of value function estimates. This leads to a tighter dependence on the horizon in the function estimators. We also present numerical results to demonstrate the computational effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Nonlinear time series models with exogenous regressors are essential in econometrics, queuing theory, and machine learning, though their statistical analysis remains incomplete. Key results, such as the law of large numbers and the functional central limit theorem, are known for weakly dependent variables. We demonstrate the transfer of mixing properties from the exogenous regressor to the response via coupling arguments. Additionally, we study Markov chains in random environments with drift and minorization conditions, even under non-stationary environments with favorable mixing properties, and apply this framework to single-server queuing models.

We study the mixing time of two popular discrete time Markov chains in continuous space, the unadjusted Langevin algorithm and the proximal sampler, which are discretizations of the Langevin dynamics. We extend mixing time analyses for these Markov chains to hold in $\Phi$-divergence. We show that any $\Phi$-divergence arising from a twice-differentiable strictly convex function $\Phi$ converges to $0$ exponentially fast along these Markov chains, under the assumption that their stationary distributions satisfies the corresponding $\Phi$-Sobolev inequality. Our rates of convergence are tight and include as special cases popular mixing time regimes, namely the mixing in chi-squared divergence under a Poincar\'e inequality, and the mixing in relative entropy under a log-Sobolev inequality. Our results follow by bounding the contraction coefficients arising in the appropriate strong data processing inequalities.

The aim of the notes is to demonstrate the potential for ideas in machine learning to impact on the fields of inverse problems and data assimilation. The perspective is one that is primarily aimed at researchers from inverse problems and/or data assimilation who wish to see a mathematical presentation of machine learning as it pertains to their fields. As a by-product of the presentation we present a succinct mathematical treatment of various topics in machine learning. The material on machine learning, along with some other related topics, is summarized in Part III, Appendix. Part I of the notes is concerned with inverse problems, employing material from Part III; Part II of the notes is concerned with data assimilation, employing material from Parts I and III.

We study a class of structured Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) known as Exo-MDPs. They are characterized by a partition of the state space into two components: the exogenous states evolve stochastically in a manner not affected by the agent's actions, whereas the endogenous states can be affected by actions, and evolve according to deterministic dynamics involving both the endogenous and exogenous states. Exo-MDPs provide a natural model for various applications, including inventory control, portfolio management, power systems, and ride-sharing, among others. While seemingly restrictive on the surface, our first result establishes that any discrete MDP can be represented as an Exo-MDP. The underlying argument reveals how transition and reward dynamics can be written as linear functions of the exogenous state distribution, showing how Exo-MDPs are instances of linear mixture MDPs, thereby showing a representational equivalence between discrete MDPs, Exo-MDPs, and linear mixture MDPs. The connection between Exo-MDPs and linear mixture MDPs leads to algorithms that are near sample-optimal, with regret guarantees scaling with the (effective) size of the exogenous state space $d$, independent of the sizes of the endogenous state and action spaces, even when the exogenous state is {\em unobserved}. When the exogenous state is unobserved, we establish a regret upper bound of $O(H^{3/2}d\sqrt{K})$ with $K$ trajectories of horizon $H$ and unobserved exogenous state of dimension $d$. We also establish a matching regret lower bound of $\Omega(H^{3/2}d\sqrt{K})$ for non-stationary Exo-MDPs and a lower bound of $\Omega(Hd\sqrt{K})$ for stationary Exo-MDPs. We complement our theoretical findings with an experimental study on inventory control problems.