Agents that solve problems in unknown graphs are usually required to iteratively explore parts of the graph. In this paper we research the problem of finding a k-clique in an unknown graph while minimizing the number of required exploration actions. Two novel heuristics Known Degree and Clique* are proposed to reduce the required exploration cost by carefully choosing which part of the environment to explore. We further investigate the problem by adding probabilistic knowledge of the graph and propose an Markov Decision Process(MDP) and a Monte Carlo based heuristic (RClique*) that uses knowledge of edge probabilities to reduce the required exploration cost. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches on simulated random and scale free graphs as well as on real online web crawls.

We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing on directed trees, we show how to combine the given local uncertainty models in the nodes of the graph into a global model, and we use this to construct and justify an exact message-passing algorithm that computes updated beliefs for a variable in the tree. The algorithm, which is linear in the number of nodes, is formulated entirely in terms of coherent lower previsions, and is shown to satisfy a number of rationality requirements. We supply examples of the algorithm's operation, and report an application to on-line character recognition that illustrates the advantages of our approach for prediction. We comment on the perspectives, opened by the availability, for the first time, of a truly efficient algorithm based on epistemic irrelevance.

Markov models are extensively used in the analysis of molecular evolution. A recent line of research suggests that pairs of proteins with functional and physical interactions co-evolve with each other. Here, by analyzing hundreds of orthologous sets of three fungi and their co-evolutionary relations, we demonstrate that co-evolutionary assumption may violate the Markov assumption. Our results encourage developing alternative probabilistic models for the cases of extreme co-evolution. Markov models have been extensively used in studies and modeling of molecular evolution (see, for example, [1-11]).

Because an agent's resources dictate what actions it can possibly take, it should plan which resources it holds over time carefully, considering its inherent limitations (such as power or payload restrictions), the competing needs of other agents for the same resources, and the stochastic nature of the environment. Such agents can, in general, achieve more of their objectives if they can use -- and even create -- opportunities to change which resources they hold at various times. Driven by resource constraints, the agents could break their overall missions into an optimal series of phases, optimally reconfiguring their resources at each phase, and optimally using their assigned resources in each phase, given their knowledge of the stochastic environment. In this paper, we formally define and analyze this constrained, sequential optimization problem in both the single-agent and multi-agent contexts. We present a family of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulations of this problem that can optimally create phases(when phases are not predefined) accounting for costs and limitations in phase creation. Because our formulations simultaneously also find the optimal allocations of resources at each phase and the optimal policies for using the allocated resources at each phase, they exploit structure across these coupled problems. This allows them to find solutions significantly faster (orders of magnitude faster in larger problems) than alternative solution techniques, as we demonstrate empirically.

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. Defining HMMs with side-constraints in Constraint Logic Programming have advantages in terms of more compact expression and pruning opportunities during inference. We present a PRISM-based framework for extending HMMs with side-constraints and show how well-known constraints such as cardinality and all different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment.

We adapt tools from information theory to analyze how an observer comes to synchronize with the hidden states of a finitary, stationary stochastic process. We show that synchronization is determined by both the process's internal organization and by an observer's model of it. We analyze these components using the convergence of state-block and block-state entropies, comparing them to the previously known convergence properties of the Shannon block entropy. Along the way, we introduce a hierarchy of information quantifiers as derivatives and integrals of these entropies, which parallels a similar hierarchy introduced for block entropy. We also draw out the duality between synchronization properties and a process's controllability. The tools lead to a new classification of a process's alternative representations in terms of minimality, synchronizability, and unifilarity.

We improve recently published results about resources of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) and Deep Belief Networks (DBN) required to make them Universal Approximators. We show that any distribution p on the set of binary vectors of length n can be arbitrarily well approximated by an RBM with k-1 hidden units, where k is the minimal number of pairs of binary vectors differing in only one entry such that their union contains the support set of p. In important cases this number is half of the cardinality of the support set of p. We construct a DBN with 2^n/2(n-b), b ~ log(n), hidden layers of width n that is capable of approximating any distribution on {0,1}^n arbitrarily well. This confirms a conjecture presented by Le Roux and Bengio 2010.

Our research focuses on analysing human activities according to a known behaviorist scenario, in case of noisy and high dimensional collected data. The data come from the monitoring of patients with dementia diseases by wearable cameras. We define a structural model of video recordings based on a Hidden Markov Model. New spatio-temporal features, color features and localization features are proposed as observations. First results in recognition of activities are promising.

We examine the suitability of using decision processes to model real-world systems of intelligent adversaries. Decision processes have long been used to study cooperative multiagent interactions, but their practical applicability to adversarial problems has received minimal study. We address the pros and cons of applying sequential decision-making in this area, using the crime of money laundering as a specific example. Motivated by case studies, we abstract out a model of the money laundering process, using the framework of interactive partially observable Markov decision processes (I-POMDPs). We address why this framework is well suited for modeling adversarial interactions. Particle filtering and value iteration are used to solve the model, with the application of different pruning and look-ahead strategies to assess the tradeoffs between solution quality and algorithmic run time. Our results show that there is a large gap in the level of realism that can currently be achieved by such decision models, largely due to computational demands that limit the size of problems that can be solved. While these results represent solutions to a simplified model of money laundering, they illustrate nonetheless the kinds of agent interactions that cannot be captured by standard approaches such as anomaly detection. This implies that I-POMDP methods may be valuable in the future, when algorithmic capabilities have further evolved.

Automatically constructing novel representations of tasks from analysis of state spaces is a longstanding fundamental challenge in AI. I review recent progress on this problem for sequential decision making tasks modeled as Markov decision processes. Specifically, I discuss three classes of representation discovery problems: finding functional, state, and temporal abstractions. I describe solution techniques varying along several dimensions: diagonalization or dilation methods using approximate or exact transition models; reward-specific vs reward-invariant methods; global vs. local representation construction methods; multiscale vs. flat discovery methods; and finally, orthogonal vs. redundant representa- tion discovery methods. I conclude by describing a number of open problems for future work.