We propose a novel reinforcement learning approach for finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) with delayed rewards. In this work, biases of temporal difference (TD) estimates are proved to be corrected only exponentially slowly in the number of delay steps. Furthermore, variances of Monte Carlo (MC) estimates are proved to increase the variance of other estimates, the number of which can exponentially grow in the number of delay steps. We introduce RUDDER, a return decomposition method, which creates a new MDP with same optimal policies as the original MDP but with redistributed rewards that have largely reduced delays. If the return decomposition is optimal, then the new MDP does not have delayed rewards and TD estimates are unbiased. In this case, the rewards track Q-values so that the future expected reward is always zero. We experimentally confirm our theoretical results on bias and variance of TD and MC estimates. On artificial tasks with different lengths of reward delays, we show that RUDDER is exponentially faster than TD, MC, and MC Tree Search (MCTS). RUDDER outperforms rainbow, A3C, DDQN, Distributional DQN, Dueling DDQN, Noisy DQN, and Prioritized DDQN on the delayed reward Atari game Venture in only a fraction of the learning time. RUDDER considerably improves the state-of-the-art on the delayed reward Atari game Bowling in much less learning time. Source code is available at https://github.com/ml-jku/baselines-rudder, with demonstration videos at https://goo.gl/EQerZV.

Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. In addition, Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).

Event detection is a critical feature in data-driven systems as it assists with the identification of nominal and anomalous behavior. Event detection is increasingly relevant in robotics as robots operate with greater autonomy in increasingly unstructured environments. In this work, we present an accurate, robust, fast, and versatile measure for skill and anomaly identification. A theoretical proof establishes the link between the derivative of the log-likelihood of the HMM filtered belief state and the latest emission probabilities. The key insight is the inverse relationship in which gradient analysis is used for skill and anomaly identification. Our measure showed better performance across all metrics than related state-of-the art works. The result is broadly applicable to domains that use HMMs for event detection.

Emily B. Fox Department of Statistics University of Washington Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.

The restricted Boltzmann machine is a network of stochastic units with undirected interactions between pairs of visible and hidden units. This model was popularized as a building block of deep learning architectures and has continued to play an important role in applied and theoretical machine learning. Restricted Boltzmann machines carry a rich structure, with connections to geometry, applied algebra, probability, statistics, machine learning, and other areas. The analysis of these models is attractive in its own right and also as a platform to combine and generalize mathematical tools for graphical models with hidden variables. This article gives an introduction to the mathematical analysis of restricted Boltzmann machines, reviews recent results on the geometry of the sets of probability distributions representable by these models, and suggests a few directions for further investigation.

Traditional process monitoring techniques provide dashboards and reports showing the recent performance of a business process in terms of key performance indicators such as mean execution time, resource utilization or error rate with respect to a given notion of error. Predictive (business) process monitoring techniques go beyond traditional ones by making predictions about the future state of the executions of a business process (herein called cases). For example, a predictive monitoring technique may seek to predict the remaining execution time of each ongoing case of a process [29], the next activity that will be executed in each case [11], or the final outcome of a case, with respect to a possible set of business outcomes [23-25]. For instance, in an order-to-cash process (a process going from the receipt of a purchase order to the receipt of payment of the corresponding invoice), the possible outcomes of a case may be that the purchase order is closed satisfactorily (i.e., the customer accepted the products and paid) or unsatisfactorily (e.g., the order was canceled or withdrawn). Another set of possible outcomes is that the products were delivered on time (with respect to a maximum acceptable delivery time), or delivered late. Recent years have seen the emergence of a rich field of proposed methods for predictive process monitoring in general, and predictive monitoring of (categorical) case outcomes in particular - herein called outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring. Unfortunately, there is no unified approach to evaluate these methods. Indeed, different authors have used different datasets, experimental settings, evaluation measures and baselines.

This survey presents the main results achieved for the influence maximization problem in social networks. This problem is well studied in the literature and, thanks to its recent applications, some of which currently deployed on the field, it is receiving more and more attention in the scientific community. The problem can be formulated as follows: given a graph, with each node having a certain probability of influencing its neighbors, select a subset of vertices so that the number of nodes in the network that are influenced is maximized. Starting from this model, we introduce the main theoretical developments and computational results that have been achieved, taking into account different diffusion models describing how the information spreads throughout the network, various ways in which the sources of information could be placed, and how to tackle the problem in the presence of uncertainties affecting the network. Finally, we present one of the main application that has been developed and deployed exploiting tools and techniques previously discussed.

Inverse reinforcement learning is the problem of inferring the reward function of an observed agent, given its policy or behavior. Researchers perceive IRL both as a problem and as a class of methods. By categorically surveying the current literature in IRL, this article serves as a reference for researchers and practitioners in machine learning to understand the challenges of IRL and select the approaches best suited for the problem on hand. The survey formally introduces the IRL problem along with its central challenges which include accurate inference, generalizability, correctness of prior knowledge, and growth in solution complexity with problem size. The article elaborates how the current methods mitigate these challenges. We further discuss the extensions of traditional IRL methods: (i) inaccurate and incomplete perception, (ii) incomplete model, (iii) multiple rewards, and (iv) non-linear reward functions. This discussion concludes with some broad advances in the research area and currently open research questions.

Mastering Machine Learning Algorithms is your complete guide to quickly getting to grips with popular machine learning algorithms. You will be introduced to the most widely used algorithms in supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised machine learning, and will learn how to use them in the best possible manner. Ranging from Bayesian models to the MCMC algorithm to Hidden Markov models, this book will teach you how to extract features from your dataset and perform dimensionality reduction by making use of Python-based libraries such as scikit-learn. You will also learn how to use Keras and TensorFlow to train effective neural networks.

Modeling agent behavior is central to understanding the emergence of complex phenomena in multiagent systems. Prior work in agent modeling has largely been task-specific and driven by hand-engineering domain-specific prior knowledge. We propose a general learning framework for modeling agent behavior in any multiagent system using only a handful of interaction data. Our framework casts agent modeling as a representation learning problem. Consequently, we construct a novel objective inspired by imitation learning and agent identification and design an algorithm for unsupervised learning of representations of agent policies. We demonstrate empirically the utility of the proposed framework in (i) a challenging high-dimensional competitive environment for continuous control and (ii) a cooperative environment for communication, on supervised predictive tasks, unsupervised clustering, and policy optimization using deep reinforcement learning.