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 Markov Models


Reinforcement Learning in POMDP's via Direct Gradient Ascent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper discusses theoretical and experimental aspects of gradient-based approaches to the direct optimization of policy performance in controlled POMDPs. We introduce GPOMDP, a REINFORCE-like algorithm for estimating an approximation to the gradient of the average reward as a function of the parameters of a stochastic policy. The algorithm's chief advantages are that it requires only a single sample path of the underlying Markov chain, it uses only one free parameter $ฮฒ\in [0,1)$, which has a natural interpretation in terms of bias-variance trade-off, and it requires no knowledge of the underlying state. We prove convergence of GPOMDP and show how the gradient estimates produced by GPOMDP can be used in a conjugate-gradient procedure to find local optima of the average reward.


IS-Bench: Evaluating Interactive Safety of VLM-Driven Embodied Agents in Daily Household Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Flawed planning from VLM-driven embodied agents poses significant safety hazards, hindering their deployment in real-world household tasks. However, existing static, non-interactive evaluation paradigms fail to adequately assess risks within these interactive environments, since they cannot simulate dynamic risks that emerge from an agent's actions and rely on unreliable post-hoc evaluations that ignore unsafe intermediate steps. To bridge this critical gap, we propose evaluating an agent's interactive safety: its ability to perceive emergent risks and execute mitigation steps in the correct procedural order. We thus present IS-Bench, the first multi-modal benchmark designed for interactive safety, featuring 161 challenging scenarios with 388 unique safety risks instantiated in a high-fidelity simulator. Crucially, it facilitates a novel process-oriented evaluation that verifies whether risk mitigation actions are performed before/after specific risk-prone steps. Extensive experiments on leading VLMs, including the GPT-4o and Gemini-2.5 series, reveal that current agents lack interactive safety awareness, and that while safety-aware Chain-of-Thought can improve performance, it often compromises task completion. By highlighting these critical limitations, IS-Bench provides a foundation for developing safer and more reliable embodied AI systems. Code and data are released under https://github.com/AI45Lab/IS-Bench.


AURA: A Diagnostic Framework for Tracking User Satisfaction of Interactive Planning Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in instruction-following and context-understanding lead to the era of agents with numerous applications. Among these, task planning agents have become especially prominent in realistic scenarios involving complex internal pipelines, such as context understanding, tool management, and response generation. However, existing benchmarks predominantly evaluate agent performance based on task completion as a proxy for overall effectiveness. We hypothesize that merely improving task completion is misaligned with maximizing user satisfaction, as users interact with the entire agentic process and not only the end result. To address this gap, we propose AURA, an Agent-User inteRaction Assessment framework that conceptualizes the behavioral stages of interactive task planning agents. AURA offers a comprehensive assessment of agent through a set of atomic LLM evaluation criteria, allowing researchers and practitioners to diagnose specific strengths and weaknesses within the agent's decision-making pipeline. Our analyses show that agents excel in different behavioral stages, with user satisfaction shaped by both outcomes and intermediate behaviors. We also highlight future directions, including systems that leverage multiple agents and the limitations of user simulators in task planning.


Learning Causality for Longitudinal Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITEs) by capturing unobserved heterogeneity in treatment response driven by latent risk factors that affect only outcomes. CDVAE comes with theoretical guarantees on valid latent adjustment and generalization bounds for ITE error. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that CDVAE outperforms baselines, and that state-of-the-art models greatly improve when augmented with its latent substitutes, approaching oracle performance without access to true adjustment variables. The second contribution proposes an efficient framework for long-term counterfactual regression based on RNNs enhanced with Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) and InfoMax. It captures long-range dependencies under time-varying confounding while avoiding the computational cost of transformers, achieving state-of-the-art results and introducing CPC into causal inference. The third contribution advances CRL by addressing how latent causes manifest in observed variables. We introduce a model-agnostic interpretability layer based on the geometry of the decoder Jacobian. A sparse self-expression prior induces modular, possibly overlapping groups of observed features aligned with shared latent influences. We provide recovery guarantees in both disjoint and overlapping settings and show that meaningful latent-to-observed structure can be recovered without anchor features or single-parent assumptions. Scalable Jacobian-based regularization techniques are also developed.


Realizable Abstractions: Near-Optimal Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The main focus of Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) is studying how large Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) can be more efficiently solved when addressed in a modular way, by combining partial solutions computed for smaller subtasks. Despite their very intuitive role for learning, most notions of MDP abstractions proposed in the HRL literature have limited expressive power or do not possess formal efficiency guarantees. This work addresses these fundamental issues by defining Realizable Abstractions, a new relation between generic low-level MDPs and their associated high-level decision processes. The notion we propose avoids non-Markovianity issues and has desirable near-optimality guarantees. Indeed, we show that any abstract policy for Realizable Abstractions can be translated into near-optimal policies for the low-level MDP, through a suitable composition of options. As demonstrated in the paper, these options can be expressed as solutions of specific constrained MDPs. Based on these findings, we propose RARL, a new HRL algorithm that returns compositional and near-optimal low-level policies, taking advantage of the Realizable Abstraction given in the input. We show that RARL is Probably Approximately Correct, it converges in a polynomial number of samples, and it is robust to inaccuracies in the abstraction.


Mathematical Framing for Different Agent Strategies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a unified mathematical and probabilistic framework for understanding and comparing diverse AI agent strategies. We bridge the gap between high-level agent design concepts, such as ReAct, multi-agent systems, and control flows, and a rigorous mathematical formulation. Our approach frames agentic processes as a chain of probabilities, enabling a detailed analysis of how different strategies manipulate these probabilities to achieve desired outcomes. Our framework provides a common language for discussing the trade-offs inherent in various agent architectures. One of our many key contributions is the introduction of the "Degrees of Freedom" concept, which intuitively differentiates the optimizable levers available for each approach, thereby guiding the selection of appropriate strategies for specific tasks. This work aims to enhance the clarity and precision in designing and evaluating AI agents, offering insights into maximizing the probability of successful actions within complex agentic systems.


Solving LLM Repetition Problem in Production: A Comprehensive Study of Multiple Solutions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The repetition problem, where Large Language Models (LLMs) continuously generate repetitive content without proper termination, poses a critical challenge in production deployments, causing severe performance degradation and system stalling. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation and multiple practical solutions for the repetition problem encountered in real-world batch code interpretation tasks. We identify three distinct repetition patterns: (1) business rule generation repetition, (2) method call relationship analysis repetition, and (3) PlantUML diagram syntax generation repetition. Through rigorous theoretical analysis based on Markov models, we establish that the root cause lies in greedy decoding's inability to escape repetitive loops, exacerbated by self-reinforcement effects. Our comprehensive experimental evaluation demonstrates three viable solutions: (1) Beam Search decoding with early_stopping=True serves as a universal post-hoc mechanism that effectively resolves all three repetition patterns; (2) presence_penalty hyperparameter provides an effective solution specifically for BadCase 1; and (3) Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) fine-tuning offers a universal model-level solution for all three BadCases. The primary value of this work lies in combining first-hand production experience with extensive experimental validation. Our main contributions include systematic theoretical analysis of repetition mechanisms, comprehensive evaluation of multiple solutions with task-specific applicability mapping, identification of early_stopping as the critical parameter for Beam Search effectiveness, and practical production-ready solutions validated in real deployment environments.


AutoGuard: A Self-Healing Proactive Security Layer for DevSecOps Pipelines Using Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contemporary DevSecOps pipelines have to deal with the evolution of security in an ever-continuously integrated and deployed environment. Existing methods,such as rule-based intrusion detection and static vulnerability scanning, are inadequate and unreceptive to changes in the system, causing longer response times and organization needs exposure to emerging attack vectors. In light of the previous constraints, we introduce AutoGuard to the DevSecOps ecosystem, a reinforcement learning (RL)-powered self-healing security framework built to pre-emptively protect DevSecOps environments. AutoGuard is a self-securing security environment that continuously observes pipeline activities for potential anomalies while preemptively remediating the environment. The model observes and reacts based on a policy that is continually learned dynamically over time. The RL agent improves each action over time through reward-based learning aimed at improving the agent's ability to prevent, detect and respond to a security incident in real-time. Testing using simulated ContinuousIntegration / Continuous Deployment (CI/CD) environments showed AutoGuard to successfully improve threat detection accuracy by 22%, reduce mean time torecovery (MTTR) for incidents by 38% and increase overall resilience to incidents as compared to traditional methods. Keywords- DevSecOps, Reinforcement Learning, Self- Healing Security, Continuous Integration, Automated Threat Mitigation


Route-and-Reason: Scaling Large Language Model Reasoning with Reinforced Model Router

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Chain-of-thought has been proven essential for enhancing the complex reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), but it also leads to high computational costs. Recent advances have explored the method to route queries among multiple models and proved it as a promising approach. However, previous works directly operate at the task level, i.e., assigning user queries to suitable LLMs, which does not allow hybrid LLMs to truly collaborate on finer-grained sub-tasks. Collaboration at the level of intermediate reasoning steps (thoughts) could enable more efficient coordination, but it also poses significant challenges for router scheduling, placing immense demands on the quality of task decomposition and the precision of the router. To address this, we propose R2-Reasoner, a novel framework centered around a Reinforced Model Router designed to efficiently scale LLM reasoning. This router orchestrates collaboration across nine heterogeneous models, whose parameter scales range from less than 1B to hundreds of billions, by first breaking down a complex query into subtasks with a decomposer, and then assigning each subtask to the optimal model with a subtask allocator, balancing performance with cost. Training this router involves a two-stage alternating process for the decomposer and the allocator, integrating supervised fine-tuning with reinforcement learning to enable effective self-supervised refinement. Extensive experiments across six challenging reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that R2-Reasoner reduces API costs by 84.46% compared with state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining competitive reasoning accuracy. Our framework paves the way for the development of more scalable and efficient reasoning systems. Our code is open-source at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/R2_Reasoner.


A comparison between initialization strategies for the infinite hidden Markov model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Infinite hidden Markov models provide a flexible framework for modelling time series with structural changes and complex dynamics, without requiring the number of latent states to be specified in advance. This flexibility is achieved through the hierarchical Dirichlet process prior, while efficient Bayesian inference is enabled by the beam sampler, which combines dynamic programming with slice sampling to truncate the infinite state space adaptively. Despite extensive methodological developments, the role of initialization in this framework has received limited attention. This study addresses this gap by systematically evaluating initialization strategies commonly used for finite hidden Markov models and assessing their suitability in the infinite setting. Results from both simulated and real datasets show that distance-based clustering initializations consistently outperform model-based and uniform alternatives, the latter being the most widely adopted in the existing literature.